Hudak blows another election
Thursday’s five by-elections in Ontario were another blow to Ontario Progressive Conservative Leader Tim Hudak. This constitutes a real crisis of confidence.
The results need to be analyzed based on the expectations created by the polls and the media’s belief that ex-premier Dalton McGuinty had fatally undermined the Liberal party. On that basis, it was perfectly reasonable to expect the Liberals to lose every one of their seats, maybe just squeaking by in Scarborough-Guildwood; the Tories to win three or four of the five; and the NDP to win only Windsor-Tecumseh. From that perspective, a single Liberal win would have been a real godsend, allowing them to boast they were still contenders. That’s in fact what the Liberals expected and how they were prepared to spin it publicly. But that didn’t happen.
The Tory and NDP responses would have been equally predictable. Given the Conservative shut-out in Toronto for so many years, any victory would unleash delirium, while winning both Toronto seats, which they expected, would have been heaven. With three, or, as they quietly believed, four wins – everything but Windsor – they’d have been celebrating their unstoppable ascent to government. And they would have been right. But none of that happened.
Similarly, the NDP would have crowed about an easy Windsor win – an amazing 61 per cent in a former Liberal stronghold – but one victory was rightly not considered enough. They needed London West as well, although polls showed them running behind the Hudak candidate. Had they won only one of five, and had star candidate Adam Giambrone received only 21 per cent in Scarborough-Guildwood, as polls forecast, Thursday would have been a bad day in NDP circles. That Giambrone had won the nomination in dubious circumstances with unseemly backing by the party brass would have meant much salt in raw wounds. But none of that happened either. (Source: The Globe & Mail)