Canadian dollar will drop to 59 cents US in 2016, Macquarie forecasts
A day after the loonie slipped below the 70-cent US level for the first time since 2003, a forecaster at investment bank Macquarie says he expects the loonie to lose another 10 cents to reach an all-time low of 59 cents by the end of 2016.
David Doyle of Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd. lowered his Canadian dollar forecast to 59 cents US on Tuesday. That would eclipse the all-time low for the loonie, set on Jan. 21, 2002, at 61.79 cents US.
Doyle knows of what he speaks. Last February, when the Canadian dollar was valued at just over 80 cents, he — correctly, as it turns out — predicted the loonie would hit 69 cents US at some point in the next 12 months.
It did so Tuesday.
“Once [the loonie] reaches this level,” Doyle said, “it should remain subdued through [the end of] 2018 and potentially even longer.”
Doyle’s new forecast doesn’t see the loonie above 65 cents US at any time between the end of 2016 and the two years that follow.
The loonie has been whipsawed of late by oil and the U.S. dollar. Oil prices can’t find a bottom, with a barrel of the North America crude oil benchmark dipping below $30 a barrel for the first time in 13 years on Tuesday. That’s dragging the loonie down with it, as Canada’s dollar is widely considered to be a play on oil prices.
Economic uncertainty makes investors flock to assets perceived as safe, and for the most part none are perceived to be safer than the U.S. dollar. That drives up the greenback’s value. So while the Canadian dollar is sliding lower compared to most currencies, it looks especially cheap compared to the U.S. buck. (Source: CBC News)