Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Saturday November 13, 2021
Ontario COVID-19 modelling shows ICU numbers stable, but likely to rise
Ontario’s COVID-19 cases are rising in most public health units, with hospitalizations and intensive-care occupancy rates remaining stable but ICU admissions likely to increase, according to new modelling.
On Friday, the province’s COVID-19 science and modelling advisory tables released data showing that between Oct. 26 and Nov. 8, all but eight of the province’s 34 public health units saw an increase in cases. The sharpest rise occurred in the Sudbury public health unit, which reimposed local restrictions such as capacity limits this week.
The models also state that those with lower incomes, essential workers and minority groups are at highest risk of COVID-19-related mortality, citing “different exposures” and access to testing.
The data show vaccinations continue to be highly effective in combatting COVID-19, with unvaccinated people 11 times more likely to be hospitalized and having a 26-fold higher risk of being in the ICU compared with the fully vaccinated.
With case counts rising, “the immediate future is uncertain,” because the current surge is very recent, the document said. Colder weather causing people to spend more time indoors, the lifting of capacity limits in most venues across the province and indoor gatherings are cited as the sources of recent transmission. (The Globe & Mail)