Wednesday September 18, 2024

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Wednesday September 18, 2024

Link to the animated version

Justin Trudeau’s Last Round: Will He Step Down Before a Liberal Wipeout?

In the wake of the latest by-election defeat in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun, a long-held Liberal riding once represented by former Prime Minister Paul Martin Jr., questions surrounding Justin Trudeau’s leadership have intensified. This loss is a significant blow to a party already reeling from the unexpected defeat in Toronto-St. Paul’s earlier this year. Both ridings were once considered Liberal strongholds, and their loss hints at a broader dissatisfaction with the Trudeau government, which now faces the daunting possibility of electoral defeat in the next general election.

Justin Trudeau’s decision to cling to power, despite mounting evidence of declining support, appears increasingly like a stubborn refusal to acknowledge reality. His boxer instincts, honed during his youthful foray into the ring, have often been cited as the reason for his tenacious hold on power. Much like his father, Pierre Trudeau, who led the country for 16 years, Justin seems to view stepping down as a personal defeat. Yet, historical parallels suggest this approach could backfire. Pierre Trudeau’s final years in office were marked by increasing unpopularity, culminating in his eventual resignation in 1984. The Liberal Party then suffered one of its worst defeats in modern history, reduced to just 40 seats, while Brian Mulroney’s Conservatives swept to power.

News: Byelection results: Justin Trudeau handed his second byelection upset in recent months

This historical warning feels all the more relevant today. The downward trajectory of the Liberal Party’s vote share and seat count under Justin Trudeau since 2015 suggests that clinging to power could lead to another electoral wipeout, similar to his father’s near-fatal blow to the party in 1984. While his instincts may tell him to stay and fight, Trudeau faces a different political environment from his father.

Pierre Poilievre, leader of the Conservative Party, represents a formidable opponent, one who has successfully galvanized discontented voters across Canada. Trudeau’s personal animosity toward Poilievre has been evident in their exchanges, which have become increasingly combative. While some supporters may relish the thought of a high-stakes electoral battle between Trudeau and Poilievre, the latest polling data suggests that Trudeau’s odds of winning are slim.

The Liberals’ waning popularity is not just a matter of leadership; it reflects broader dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of issues like inflation, foreign policy, and environmental promises, including the highly symbolic but unfulfilled electoral reform pledge that played a role in the by-election loss. As John Ibbitson of The Globe & Mail notes, the Bloc Québécois and NDP are now more than ever incentivized to push for an early election. Both parties sense the Liberals’ vulnerability and could be pivotal in triggering an election sooner rather than later.

The latest by-election loss, compounded by internal dissent within the party, including ministerial staffers protesting the government’s stance on Israel, makes it clear that Trudeau’s political capital is quickly dwindling. Continuing to lead the party into another election could tarnish his legacy, much like his father’s overstaying his welcome.

Opinion: With the Liberals losing once-safe seats, an election can’t be far off

Trudeau has always framed his political career as one of legacy—following in his father’s footsteps as a progressive leader. However, if he continues to ignore the warning signs, he risks not only losing the next election but also diminishing what accomplishments he has made. There is a growing consensus among both political analysts and some Liberal supporters that now may be the time for Trudeau to step aside gracefully, allowing the party to regroup under new leadership. Figures like Mark Carney are often mentioned as potential successors, someone who could refresh the party’s image and give it a fighting chance in the next election.

In summary, Justin Trudeau faces a critical decision. Will he heed the lessons of history and step down, or will his stubbornness lead the Liberals into a crushing defeat? Given the electoral shifts seen in both Montreal and Toronto, as well as the broader national dissatisfaction reflected in the polls, it may be time for Trudeau to reassess his position. Like his father, Trudeau has made significant contributions to Canadian politics, but staying too long could ensure his legacy is overshadowed by an avoidable electoral disaster. Ten years in power is already a significant tenure in modern politics, and Trudeau must now consider whether his continued leadership will strengthen or weaken his party’s future.