Wednesday November 6, 2024

Despite speculation that the U.S. presidential election could influence Justin Trudeau’s decision to stay or step down as prime minister, it is likely that he will remain in office regardless of the outcome due to his experience and the absence of a clear successor within the Liberal Party.

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Wednesday November 6, 2024

U.S. Election Results Aren’t a Coin Toss for Justin Trudeau’s Future — He’s Staying Put

November 12, 2016

As Americans anxiously await the final results of their hotly contested presidential election — a battle that’s so tight it’s being dubbed a coin toss between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump — many Canadians are turning their eyes northward, pondering what this could mean for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Could this pivotal U.S. election push him to stay or go? The truth is, regardless of who emerges victorious, the smart money says Trudeau is staying.

Trudeau’s political career has, in part, been defined by his ability to navigate Canada’s relationship with the United States, its most significant ally and trading partner. His tenure includes years of facing Trump’s first administration — a period marked by tumult, tariffs, and a very public falling out that culminated in Trump calling him “two-faced.” Still, Trudeau managed to weather that storm, leaning on his adept handling of complex diplomacy and a deep understanding of international relations.

Analysis: Why Trudeau and Harris face similar troubles with voters

Canada's tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles are not just about economic competition; they're a stand against China's broader geopolitical influence, including alleged interference in Canadian elections. As China pushes affordable EVs, the West must protect its industries and democratic values, even at the cost of higher consumer prices.

August 28, 2024

Kamala Harris, on the other hand, is seen as a much more aligned partner for Trudeau, with shared values on climate action, human rights, and progressive social policies. Yet, even a Harris victory wouldn’t signal a path free of challenges. The Democrats’ embrace of economic protectionism and the continuation of “America First” policies mean a need for constant, careful negotiation. Trudeau has shown he’s capable of that and may see a Harris presidency as an opportunity to reinforce his legacy with a stable, cooperative North American partnership.

While some observers speculate that a Trump win would push Trudeau to the sidelines, citing the difficulty of managing a renewed Trump presidency alongside intense domestic criticism, this perspective misses the mark. Trudeau’s tenure has already been defined by resilience in the face of adversity — whether that’s navigating a global pandemic, economic upheaval, or divisive domestic politics. The challenge of working with Trump, even with the potential chaos it could bring to Canadian trade and diplomacy, is unlikely to push Trudeau to resign. Instead, it could embolden him to remain as a steady, experienced hand during unpredictable times.

Conversely, a Harris win won’t automatically make Trudeau’s position more secure or signal a time for departure. While it might embolden progressive voices within his Liberal Party and potentially reinvigorate the push for like-minded policies, it doesn’t necessarily create an opportune exit point. The reality is that Trudeau’s party is trailing the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, in national polls. Exiting at this juncture could leave the Liberals scrambling to stabilize under a new leader, likely worsening their standing.

As Canadians find themselves in a political waiting room, anxiously awaiting a resolution to Justin Trudeau's uncertain future, the fate of his leadership and the upcoming election hangs in the balance, highlighting the intricate gamesmanship of politics amid public impatience.

October 10, 2024

Domestically, Trudeau is navigating significant challenges. The economy, particularly inflation and housing affordability, continues to frustrate Canadians. His handling of these issues has left him vulnerable, but the lack of a clear successor within the Liberal Party bolsters his case for staying. Even as public fatigue with Trudeau grows, his party may calculate that he’s still their best chance at managing a crucial transitional period, whether that involves working with a second Trump term or a fresh Harris presidency.

Further, Trudeau’s commitment to his policy agenda — whether in the sphere of climate action, human rights, or fostering social programs — signals a reluctance to abandon ship while major components of his platform remain under siege by Conservative critiques. The path forward, no matter who is in the White House, demands a leader prepared for both cooperation and confrontation. Trudeau has proven he can be that leader.

Opinion: Predictability hangs in the balance as Justin Trudeau’s government awaits results of the U.S. presidential election

Recent byelection losses in LaSalle-Émard-Verdun and Toronto-St. Paul’s raise serious questions about Justin Trudeau's leadership and the future of the Liberal Party, suggesting a pressing need for new direction to regain voter trust.

September 18, 2024

The notion that the outcome of the U.S. election will force Trudeau’s hand is an oversimplification. Whether it’s Harris or Trump, each scenario presents unique challenges and opportunities that Trudeau, with his track record of weathering political storms, seems more than willing to face. The parallels between Trudeau’s leadership and Harris’s campaign of resilience and progressivism suggest he’ll find ways to cooperate, even if the political landscape across the border shifts dramatically. And if Trump takes the reins, Trudeau’s experience with that brand of chaos and unpredictability will serve as a compelling reason for him to continue his leadership.

Canadians may be tired of Trudeau, as polls indicate, but with the Liberal Party trailing and no clear successor emerging, the prime minister’s exit could create more instability than solutions. So, while the U.S. election might be a nail-biter for millions on both sides of the border, Trudeau’s next move isn’t really a coin toss. It’s a calculated decision to stay — to steer Canada through whatever comes next.

The Waiting Game

Once upon a time, the day before an American election was a whirlwind of creativity and anticipation. I’d usually draw two drafts, one for each potential outcome, capturing the moment as it unfolded. Late nights in the newsroom were spent perfecting the final touches, with fingers crossed that I’d be racing to my editor with the right version for the correct outcome. Some years, the victor was clear, and it was just another day at the sausage factory.

But this year, as I sketch the editorial cartoon for the day after the election, it’s a different story. Gone is the expectation of knowing who won by morning. Instead, we’re bracing ourselves for a drawn-out process, perhaps days of uncertainty as jurisdictions tally their votes. The polls are tight, and it’s clear that the waiting game is far from over.

And it’s not just America biting its nails; the entire world is holding its breath. The implications of this election extend far beyond U.S. borders, reverberating through decisions and actions globally. Think of Ukraine and Europe—American choices will directly influence the support against Putin’s invasion.

Closer to home, businesses across various sectors are in limbo, all awaiting the election results. From the green energy sector to automakers and the fossil fuel industry, the stakes are high. With every tick of the clock, decisions hang in the balance, contingent on the direction America takes.

The energy sector is on edge, with renewable energy firms pausing investments, uncertain of how climate policies will shift. Financial institutions are holding back on lending, while manufacturers fret over tariffs if Trump returns to power. The tech industry is likewise cautious, assessing the potential impact of new regulations.

Major players like China, the UK and Europe are waiting to see how these outcomes will shape global trade and diplomatic relations. Brazil’s agricultural sector and India’s defense procurement are also in a holding pattern, as these nations prepare for the changes that may follow.

In Canada, yes tariffs are a huge worry if Trump gets in, yet we find ourselves in our own endless waiting game with the leadership of Justin Trudeau. Stick with me folks, I’m a Canadian based cartoonist trying to refer to the U.S election through a Canadian lens. I used to believe that he knew his time was up and would plan his departure after the U.S. election results were in. However, I’m not so sure that thought ever crossed his mind. And come to think of it, how does it even matter who Americans elect unless their decision influences Justin’s January daytimer plans for attending a mid-month inauguration in January.

So, as I put stylus to screen today, I’m reminded that sometimes, the art of waiting can be just as compelling as the art of drawing. In this case, we’re all waiting—together.

…but Trudeau ain’t going anywhere.

– The Graeme Gallery

Read on Substack