Saturday September 18, 2021

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Saturday September 18, 2021

This was no ordinary election campaign, but perhaps not ‘important’

If the polls are to be believed, we have all just wasted five weeks of our lives. An election that, in law, should never have been called, the reason for which has never been adequately explained, limped through a listless campaign on track to producing a Parliament remarkably like the one it was supposed to replace. The “most important election since 1945,” according to Justin Trudeau, might as well never have happened.

September 1, 2021

Compare the most recent polls (at time of writing) to those taken at the same stage of the previous campaign. The similarity is striking: The Liberals and Conservatives are again in the low 30s, with the NDP at around 19 and the Bloc at a little over six. The seat projections, likewise, look eerily familiar: The Liberals are projected to win about 150 seats, the Conservatives about 120, the NDP and the Bloc about 30 each. Only on the margins has there been much change: the Greens have lost half of their support, while the People’s Party of Canada have tripled theirs.

But. Well, there are lots of buts. National polls mean little: to really get an idea of what’s going on, you have to drill down into the regional figures. Polls are snapshots, not predictions: Much could change in the last days of the campaign. And the polls are often wrong. Turnout is an especially difficult thing to model: Are Conservative voters more motivated than Liberal? Will NDP voters show up? Are PPC supporters so angry they will crawl over the proverbial broken glass to vote, or so alienated that they will not bother?

July 9, 2021

So much for where we are – how did we get here? At the start of the campaign, each of the party leaders faced their own personal and strategic challenges. For Mr. Trudeau, the personal challenge was his faded popular appeal: Once the Liberal Party’s most significant asset, he had become its most significant liability, under the accumulated weight of broken promises, ethical lapses and sundry other controversies. The party led all polls going into the election, some by double digits. But the leader trailed the party.

The strategic challenge, as for any Liberal leader, was to win the “progressive primary.” A substantial majority of Canadians might be described as left of centre. But their vote is divided among several parties, with no enduring loyalty to any of them. In 2015, many of those voters were drawn to the Liberal side by a youthful, charismatic leader and a positive vision of change; in 2021, they would have to be frightened into it, as the party best placed to avert the dread prospect of a Conservative government.

August 25, 2020

For Erin O’Toole, personal unpopularity also presented a challenge: His precampaign approval numbers were even worse than Mr. Trudeau’s. A year into the job as Conservative Party Leader, people still did not know much about him, but what they did know they didn’t much like.

His strategic challenge: Conservative support has a high floor and a low ceiling. Where Liberal support can range anywhere from 20 per cent to 50 per cent, the Conservatives can reliably count on winning at least 30 per cent of the vote, but have difficulty getting beyond 37 per cent or 38 per cent. Only once in the past eight elections, in 2011, have they managed it.

January 22, 2021

To remedy that, Mr. O’Toole needed to shift the Conservatives from an angry, grievance-based party, more concerned with turning out its existing supporters than reaching out to new ones, into one that could attract centrist voters. The aim was not just to expand the Conservative vote, but to distribute it more efficiently: fewer votes wasted racking up huge majorities in the West, more going to win those tight races in suburban Ontario and Quebec.

That meant presenting the Conservatives as a safe, inoffensive choice, largely indistinguishable from the Liberals ideologically, but with a less polarizing leader. (In Quebec, where votes divide on different lines, it meant pitching the Tories as a more pragmatic version of the Bloc: nearly as nationalistic, but with more ability to “deliver the goods.”)

October 18, 2019

The catch: people might believe that about Mr. O’Toole. But would they believe it about his party? For Mr. O’Toole, in short, the problem was his base; for Mr. Trudeau, it was him. (Continued: Andrew Coyne, The Globe & Mail)

Drawing the Federal Leaders



 

Friday September 17, 2021

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Friday September 17, 2021

‘Mad Max’ and why his party is on the rise

August 17, 2018

In 2018, after a falling out with his party and amid a backlash over statements he made about immigration and multiculturalism, then member of Parliament Maxime Bernier quit the Conservatives and formed his own federal party.

Mr Bernier, a former Canadian foreign minister, is a populist with a libertarian bent who supporters have nicknamed “Mad Max”. He has previously described his upstart party, the People’s Party of Canada (PPC), as a coalition of people “disenchanted with traditional politicians”.

The PPC has a wide-ranging platform that includes limiting immigration, an end to corporate welfare, a pro-firearms stance, and a rejection of what it terms “climate change alarmism”.

April 27, 2021

However, one issue above all has come to the forefront in the 2021 election: vaccine mandates and lockdowns.

Mr Bernier, 58, has been a vocal opponent of the what he calls “authoritarian” restrictions, claiming in an August rally, for example, that vaccine passports “will create two kinds of citizens, some with more rights than others”.

Such statements are “a huge part of the story behind the surge [for the PPC]”, said Elizabeth Goodyear-Grant, a political studies professor at Queens University.

“A lot of this has been generated by the party seizing on the sense that anti-lockdown, anti-vaccine passport sentiments exist in the population.”

September 15, 2021

Polling data suggests that this message is gaining momentum among some Canadian voters even while the country has some of the world’s highest vaccination rates – over 80%.

Recent tracking poll numbers from CBC, for example, ranked the PPC in fourth place nationally at 6.5% – ahead of the Green Party and the Bloc Québécois, which only runs candidates in Quebec. (The Liberals and the Conservative are in a statistical tie at around 30%).

In the 2019 election, by comparison, the PPC earned just 1.6% of the popular vote and Mr Bernier lost his own seat.

A significant portion of the party’s swelling support base comes from first time or irregular voters, as well as siphoning support from the Conservatives in parts of their western Canada political strongholds, said Prof Goodyear-Grant.

Federal Election 2021

“They are taking some support from all the other parties as well, which suggests there are people across all parties that are opposed to some of the [pandemic] measures that have been put in place,” she said.

Provinces like Quebec, Ontario, and British Columbia have all in recent weeks brought in vaccine passport systems that limit access in certain settings as cases rise in a fourth pandemic wave. (BBC News) 

 

Thursday September 16, 2021

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Thursday September 16, 2021

Jagmeet Singh takes aim at billionaires, promises to close corporate tax loopholes

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is recommitting to a crackdown on artful tax dodgers with high net worth.

February 10, 2021

The pledge is part of a basket of measures that aim to raise revenue while lowering inequality, but that fall short of covering the marquee expenditures atop the New Democrats’ election platform, economists say.

At a campaign stop across the Rideau Canal from Parliament, Singh said he would zero in on tax evasion and close loopholes that benefit billionaires.

“We believe that the ultrarich should pay their fair share so we can invest in people,” Singh said.

November 7, 2017

“(Liberal Leader) Justin Trudeau and Conservatives before him have let the super rich have a free ride. We want to put an end to that.”

The New Democrats’ plan to halt that luxury flight ranges from tougher enforcement at the Canada Revenue Agency to enhancing corporate tax transparency and capping stock option gains that are taxed at a lower rate.

Singh said the moves could raise revenue to help pay for programs such as universal pharmacare and more affordable housing. He suggested that investing an additional $100 million in the CRA would lead to a return of up to $25 billion in taxes and revenue in one year.

October 27, 2017

He also spoke about cracking down on large companies that make profits in Canada but pay little to no taxes here.

“These are tens and tens of billions of dollars of revenue that we could increase that would help us pay for the programs that we need,” he said.

In 2019, two reports from the CRA and the parliamentary budget officer found that Ottawa could be losing out on up to $51 billion in uncollected taxes each year due to illegal tax evasion and legal tax avoidance, both of which rely heavily on offshore tax havens.

CRA data from earlier this summer showed its recent efforts to combat tax evasion by the super rich resulted in zero prosecutions or convictions.

Big-ticket items in the NDP platform include: a guaranteed livable income; universal pharmacare and dental care as well as free mental health care for uninsured patients; $10-a-day childcare “for all parents”; an end to for-profit long-term care; and slashed student debt.

Some of the promises start with smaller targets — the guaranteed minimum income would begin with low-income seniors and Canadians with disabilities — but look to scale up to comprehensive social programs.

They don’t come cheap.

A guaranteed livable income would cost taxpayers between $84.2 billion and $197.2 billion annually by 2024-25, depending on the parameters, according to a November report from the parliamentary budget officer.

The NDP’s universal pharmacare scheme would see Singh spend $38.5 billion over five years, reaching more than $11 billion annually by 2024-25, according to an estimate by budget officer Yves Giroux published Friday.

A national child-care program that sets its sights on $10 a day will cost about $30 billion over five years, based on the amount earmarked for it in the Liberal budget from April.

June 18, 2020

As a counterweight to that hefty expenditure scale, Singh has proposed higher taxes on wealthy Canadians and corporations.

The measures include a wealth tax of one per cent on households with fortunes topping $10 million, an income tax hike of two points to 35 per cent for the highest bracket and a three-point hike to put the corporate tax rate at 18 per cent.

Singh would also impose a 20 per cent foreign buyers’ tax on residential property purchases and a temporary COVID-19 “excess profit tax” of 15 per cent, applicable to extra earnings by big companies. (Global News) 

 

Wednesday September 15, 2021

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Wednesday September 15, 2021

Politicians, medical groups condemn protests outside hospitals across Canada

A series of protests — against vaccine mandates and other COVID-19-related public health measures — held outside hospitals across Canada on Monday was condemned by politicians and health-care organizations as unacceptable and unfair to staff and patients.

May 8, 2021

The protests were organized by Canadian Frontline Nurses, a group founded by two Ontario nurses who have promoted conspiracy theories about COVID-19 and attended rallies in the U.S. for those who think the pandemic is a “fraud.”

The group says the “silent vigils,” expected in all 10 provinces, are meant to critique public health measures put in place to curb the spread of COVID-19.

Organizers oppose what they call “tyrannical measures and government overreach,” adding that they are not encouraging nurses to walk out on their shifts or abandon patients.

One of the group’s founders, registered practical nurse Sarah Choujounian, was at the Toronto protest. 

“We have thousands with us across Canada, but obviously, we’re only a few speaking because we’ve been fired,” said Choujounian, who formerly worked at a local long-term care home. 

August 28, 2021

Ontario Premier Doug Ford, whose government drew similar protests after he announced plans for a proof-of-vaccine system, condemned the latest round on Sunday in a tweet, describing such events as “selfish, cowardly and reckless.”

The Registered Nurses Association of Ontario and Ontario Medical Association issued a joint statement “strongly condemning” the disruptions and calling for designated safe zones around health-care facilities to protect staff and patients — a proposal the province’s New Democrats have also floated.

“Nurses, doctors and other health-care workers have been working around the clock on the front lines of the pandemic for 18 months helping to keep our communities safe,” the joint statement said.

July 8, 2021

The University Health Network, which runs Toronto General Hospital, said staff who have cared for people dying of COVID-19 are particularly disheartened, noting health-care workers have been caring for COVID-19 patients for 18 months despite risks to themselves and their families.

“To see protests in front of hospitals is demoralizing for all who work here but particularly for the staff who have cared for the people dying of COVID-19, often without all of their family and loved ones around them,” the network said in a statement.

May 5, 2021

Alberta Premier Jason Kenney condemned the protests at hospitals in Edmonton and Calgary, saying peaceful demonstrations are a constitutional right but they also have limits.

In a statement, he raised the possibility of the protesters facing legal action, “including the potential use of the Critical Infrastructure Defence Act,” an act passed in 2020 which allows fines against anyone who blocks, damages or enters without reason any “essential infrastructure.”

Meanwhile, Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau vowed to criminalize blocking access to hospitals amid the protests, saying in a tweet: “There is no place for intimidation or threats at our hospitals and clinics.” 

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh agreed it is wrong to protest at hospitals.

“No health-care worker, no patient, no one seeking health care should in any way be limited or have a barrier to getting the care they need,” he said while campaigning in Sioux Lookout, Ont.

Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole also expressed frustration.

“This type of harassment and protest in front of hospitals is completely unacceptable,” he said. (CBC) 

Tuesday September 14, 2021

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Tuesday September 14, 2021

On Vaccination and Abortion, Contrasting Conservative Leadership

August 17, 2021

Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole says it’s OK for candidates who aren’t fully vaccinated to campaign in seniors’ residences and retirement homes as long as they follow other public health measures. 

One of his candidates — Michelle Ferreri in Peterborough–Kawartha — posted photos of herself on Twitter campaigning in a retirement home despite not yet being fully vaccinated. 

“We will be following all measures, including vaccines, daily rapid testing, masking and social distancing to keep people safe,” O’Toole said during a campaign stop on Saturday in Whitby, Ont. “That’s not only an expectation, but a commitment that all members of our team have to keep people safe.”

Ferreri posted a picture this week of her campaigning at the Princess Gardens Retirement Residence in Peterborough, Ont. Ferreri’s campaign manager, Mike Skinner, told MyKawartha.com that Ferreri has received only one shot of the COVID-19 vaccine but is taking a daily rapid test. 

The Liberals say only one of their candidates — because of a medical exemption — hasn’t had two doses of vaccine. 

The Conservative campaign has also cited Trudeau’s campaign appearance last weekend at a Toronto hospital, where the Liberal leader met with health-care workers in apparent violation of the hospital’s own rules. The Liberal campaign told CBC news that the hospital made an exception for the leader, and noted that Trudeau — who is fully vaccinated — didn’t visit any wards.

August 14, 2021

O’Toole has promised to get the national vaccination rate up to 90 per cent while rejecting the idea of vaccine mandates because he believes vaccines are a personal choice. He has also refused to say how many of his candidates are fully vaccinated. 

The Conservative leader repeated his criticism of Trudeau for calling an election while the country contends with a fourth wave of COVID-19 cases. 

“No party wanted him to call this election,” O’Toole said. “We had a vote in Parliament to not have an election during the pandemic. Mr. Trudeau ignored that because he will always put his own interests first.” (CBC) 

Earlier in the campaign, O’Toole clearly stated his position on abortion

May 25, 2019

“Hi. I’m not Andrew Scheer.”

That was essentially how Erin O’Toole tried to introduce himself to Quebeckers in a speech Wednesday night. Subtlety is not a virtue in politics, so while Mr. O’Toole did not mention his predecessor by name, he did everything but pull out a picture of Mr. Scheer with a big red X over his face.

Mr. O’Toole, in Quebec City for his first big pitch to the province, said he realized that Quebeckers have hesitated to put their faith in the Tories in the past because the party was unclear on social issues. Then he said he was pro-choice. And that he had always been pro-choice. “Period.” Oh, and one more thing: “I also believe in climate change.”

March 18, 2021

It requires no political genius to see why he distanced himself from Mr. Scheer. In the 2019 election campaign, the Tories were doing fine in Quebec until the first French-language leaders debate, when Mr. Scheer fumbled questions over his personal anti-abortion views. The Conservatives collapsed in the province, and the Bloc Québécois emerged as the main opposition to Justin Trudeau’s Liberals.

So Mr. O’Toole, still relatively unknown, is leading off his Quebec campaign with two main planks: (A) He’s not Justin Trudeau and (B) he’s not Andrew Scheer. As political strategies go, it’s not a bad start.

But this is a Canadian federal election in the 21st century, and he was talking about abortion. The Liberals were waiting.

Federal Election 2021

“Tonight in Quebec, Erin O’Toole pretended to be pro-choice,” Liberal candidate and cabinet minister Maryam Monsef tweeted in a multipart thread she posted in both official languages. “He did the same thing in his platform. But in reality, he’ll let his team bring forward legislation to restrict abortion access. That’s the same position as Andrew Scheer.”

To recap: Erin O’Toole says he is not Andrew Scheer, and the Liberals say he is. (The Globe & Mail)