2022-36

Thursday November 3, 2022

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Thursday November 3, 2022

Freeland to release mini-budget today as economists warn a recession is coming

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland will table her fall economic statement today — a roadmap of what’s to come from the federal government as the economy stands on the brink of a recession.

July 9, 2020

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau faced some heat when he told reporters during the 2021 election campaign that he doesn’t pay much attention to monetary policy and the Bank of Canada’s mandate to keep inflation at manageable levels.

“You’ll forgive me if I don’t think about monetary policy. You’ll understand, I think about families,” Trudeau said at a Vancouver campaign stop.

But now, with inflation at levels not seen in decades, monetary policy is something virtually everyone in government is seized with as the central bank hikes rates to push down sky-high prices.

Under Canada’s system, monetary policy (interest rates) is set by the Bank of Canada, while fiscal policy (spending) is up to the elected government.

Ontario Liberal MP Marcus Powlowski said that with interest rates so high, “times are changing.”

“I think there’s more of an opportunity to be frugal,” he said. “Any debt we incur is going to grow.”

MP Rachel Bendayan, the associate minister of finance, said the government has been “extremely fiscally responsible” and is “planning on continuing on that track.”

May 13, 2022

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has made it clear what he wants: no new spending unless there are cuts elsewhere.

Anything else would be “pouring inflationary fuel on the fire,” Poiliere said in question period Wednesday.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh said he wants Freeland to address what he calls corporate greed and reform the employment insurance (EI) program.

Freeland has signalled already the government is expecting tough times ahead.

The era of cheap cash is over — rising rates will make it more difficult for businesses to borrow money, which could lead to downsizing and job losses.

The sizeable jump in the Bank of Canada’s policy interest rate — it’s gone from just 0.25 per cent in January to 3.75 per cent today — has also forced the government to rethink how much it will spend.

The cost to service the federal debt is relatively low right now, but it’s poised to increase in the short and medium term.

April 8, 2022

There are early signals suggesting that Ottawa’s fiscal health in the short term could be much better than predicted, thanks to higher oil prices and the growth in personal and corporate taxes in this era of high inflation.

According to figures released last week through the Public Accounts of Canada, the government’s fiscal ledger, the budget deficit for the 2021-22 fiscal year came in at $90.2 billion — substantially less than the $113.8-billion deficit Freeland projected in her April budget.

In an economic and fiscal outlook published last month, the PBO forecast a budget deficit of $25.8 billion — about 0.9 per cent of GDP — for the 2022-23 fiscal year if the government pursues “status quo policy” — meaning no major new spending on programs. That is significantly smaller than the April budget’s forecast of $52.8 billion. (CBC) 

From sketch to finish, see the current way Graeme completes an editorial cartoon using an iPencil, the Procreate app, and a couple of cheats on an iPad Pro …

Wednesday November 2, 2022

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Wednesday November 2, 2022

Ontario government’s wrecking ball negotiating tactic not an answer

Prior to the last province-wide crisis in education, Mike Harris government education minister John Snobelen promised to make changes in Ontario’s education policy by “creating a crisis.”

July 29, 2022

Sadly, it looks like Doug Ford and his education minister, Stephen Lecce, are planning to do the same thing. This week, rather than continuing bargaining with Canadian Union of Public Employees education workers, the province passed a back-to-work law before a job action could begin, imposed an non-negotiated contract arbitrarily, and promised to use the notwithstanding clause of Canada’s constitution to fend off any legal challenges.

Why? Lecce says it is in response to CUPE’s having given strike notice that job action could — not would — start as early as this Friday. The sledgehammer approach is needed to guarantee “stability” in education, says Lecce.

That’s a red herring. In the event of job action, Hamilton public schools will remain open. In Halton, schools will move to alternative scheduling to allow for adequate cleaning. And the Hamilton Catholic board has said it would close schools.

October 20, 2021

Clearly, denying collective bargaining to education assistants, custodians, early childhood educators and office staff wasn’t destined to close all schools as Lecce claims. So just what is the government’s agenda? Will it do the same when crunch-time comes while bargaining with teachers? Does the government intend to take away bargaining rights from all education workers?

CUPE education workers, 70 per cent of whom are women, are the lowest paid in the school system. On average, they earn $39,000 a year. With inflation, they have seen real wage reduction of more than 10 per cent. CUPE is seeking 11.7 per cent increases.

We’re not judging whether that increase is justified or not, or whether the province’s offer, closer to 1 per cent, is remotely fair. That’s what negotiations are for, including mediation and ultimately arbitration.

But prematurely neutering the bargaining process by declaring any job action illegal is not fair, ethical or wise.

August 20, 2012

The last government that tried imposing a contract on education workers was the McGuinty Liberal government. In 2016, Justice Thomas Lederer of the Ontario Superior Court said of that imposition: “When reviewed in the context of the Charter and the rights it provides, it becomes apparent that the process engaged in was fundamentally flawed. It could not, by its design, provide meaningful collective bargaining.”

The Ford government clearly anticipated a similar finding, and is already prepared to use the notwithstanding clause — the constitution’s nuclear option — to ignore any legal ruling. That is an abuse of the intention of the clause.

Consider the words of federal Justice Minister David Lametti, who is looking at how Ottawa could challenge the province’s use of the notwithstanding clause.

June 11, 2021

“It de facto means that people’s rights are being infringed and it’s being justified using the notwithstanding clause,” he said. “Using it pre-emptively is exceedingly problematic. It cuts off both political debate and judicial scrutiny.”

The fact that the province has already decided to use the nuclear option also suggests it knows full well it is violating the constitutional rights of education workers. Otherwise it wouldn’t need to rely on the notwithstanding clause prior to any adjudication. We should be concerned that our government is knowingly violating the rights of 55,000 Ontarians, including thousands in Hamilton and Halton.

No one wants schools closed. No one wants an education strike. But are we willing to accept accomplishing those objectives by force, taking a wrecking ball to the collective bargaining process?

If we are, we would be wise to ask ourselves: Who, and what, is next? (Hamilton Spectator Editorial) 

 

Tuesday November 1, 2022

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Tuesday November 1, 2022

U.S. Headlines Expressing Anger, Fear, Disgust, and Sadness Increased Hugely Since 2000

About 42 percent of Americans now actively avoid news coverage, according to the Reuters Institute’s 2022 Digital News Report. That’s up from 38 percent in 2017. Nearly half of Americans who’ve turned away from the news say that they are doing so because it has a negative effect on their mood. As it happens, a new study in the journal PLoS One tracking the headlines in 47 publications popular in the United States reports that they have trended decidedly negative over the past two decades. 

Coincidence?

June 12, 2019

In their study, the team of New Zealand-based media researchers used a language model trained to categorize as positive or negative the sentiments of 23 million headlines between 2000 and 2019. In addition, the model was finetuned to identify Ekman’s six basic emotions (anger, disgust, fear, joy, sadness, surprise), plus neutral, to label the headlines automatically. Using the 2019 Allsides Media Bias Chart, the publications were ideologically categorized as left, right, or center. For example, The New Yorker, the New York Times Opinion, and Mother Jones were identified as left; National Review, Fox News Opinion, and The New York Post as right; and A.P., Reuters, and The Wall Street Journal as center. (Reason was pegged as right-leaning.)

After turning their language model loose on the millions of headlines, the researchers found “an increase of sentiment negativity in headlines across written news media since the year 2000.”

June 5, 2012

Overall, the researchers find that the prevalence of headlines denoting anger since the year 2000 increased by 104 percent. The prevalence of headlines denoting fear rose 150 percent; disgust by 29 percent; and sadness by 54 percent. The joy emotional category had its up and downs, rising until 2010 and falling after that. Headlines denoting neutral emotion declined by 30 percent since the year 2000. Breaking these down by ideology, headlines from right-leaning news media have been, on average, consistently more negative than headlines from left-leaning outlets.

Why are negative headlines becoming more prevalent? “If it bleeds, it leads” is a hoary journalistic aphorism summarizing the well-known fact that dramatic, even gory, stories engage the attention of news consumers. In other words, journalists are supplying news consumers with what they want. Given the global reach of modern news media, there is always some attention-grabbing horror that occurred somewhere that can be highlighted between weather and sports on your local TV news.

November 4, 2020

Journalistic catering to people’s negativity bias ends up misleading a lot of their audiences into thinking that the state of the world is getting worse and worse. However, looking at long term trends, the opposite is the case. Yes, yes, there are wars in Ukraine, Ethiopia, and Yemen and, of course, a global pandemic during the past two years has killed around 6.5 million people so far. “For reasons I have never understood, people like to hear that the world is going to hell, and become huffy and scornful when some idiotic optimist intrudes on their pleasure,” wrote economist Deidre McCloskey. “Yet pessimism has consistently been a poor guide to the modern economic world.” (Continued: Reason) 

 

Saturday October 29, 2022

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Saturday October 29, 2022

It’s not a trick: Your Halloween treats are getting smaller

September 29, 2022

Standing in the centre aisle of the drugstore, with its seasonal display of spooky bat decorations, vampire teeth and fun-sized bags of chocolate, don’t be surprised if something seems off.

It isn’t a nightmare. Your Halloween candy just got smaller.

A bag of dark chocolate Hershey’s Kisses is now a couple of ounces smaller than before. A two-pack of Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups is a tenth of an ounce lighter. And Cadbury milk chocolate bars are about 10 percent skimpier.

Consumers can partly blame “shrinkflation” — the phenomenon of manufacturers reducing the size of their products rather than increasing the price. Over the past two years, companies have downsized paper products, salty snacks and many other consumer packaged goods as their ingredient, labor and transportation costs have skyrocketed.

December 10, 2021

But it’s also part of a years-long plan to make Americans’ treats less caloric. In 2017, Mars Wrigley, Ferrero (owner of Nestlé’s American candy business), Ferrara Candy and Lindt (which owns Ghirardelli Chocolate and Russell Stover Chocolates) joined forces to decrease calorie counts, offer a broader range of portion sizes and provide labeling that lists calories on the front of their packaging.

The National Confectioners Association last month announced that 85 percent of chocolate and candy sold today comes in packaging that contains 200 calories or fewer per pack. And nearly 100 percent of candies sold now have front-of-pack calorie labels, up from just over half in 2016.

“Five years ago, we were behind the ball on front-of-pack labeling,” said Christopher Gindlesperger, spokesman for the association. “Those four companies, that make up about half of the market, drove a remarkable change and rallied the rest of the industry.”

December 1, 2007

Other moves are intended to provide lighter options for candy consumers. Hershey, for instance, introduced “thins” versions of classic candies like Reese’s cups, York patties and Kit Kats. The company has launched an increasingly long list of zero-sugar options, from Jolly Ranchers to Twizzlers.

In short, many candy sizes and packages are shrinking but prices aren’t.

“All of these companies are having to make these decisions based on cost,” Wyatt said. “But I can say with certainty candy companies committed to these [calorie reductions and front-of-label calorie counts] before that inflation started. The products that have transparent labeling outperform others.”

Candy may in fact be the category that first experienced shrinkflation, Dworsky said. In the 1950s, he said, candy companies told vending machine operators they would have to raise prices, going from 5 cents per candy bar to 6 cents. The vending machine folks balked and asked the candy companies just to make the products smaller.

Dworsky’s message: The only way for consumers to protect themselves from shrinkflation is by memorizing product weights.

“It will go too far when you open that carton of eggs and there are only 11 inside,” he joked. (The Washington Post) 

From sketch to finish, see the current way Graeme completes an editorial cartoon using an iPencil, the Procreate app, and a couple of cheats on an iPad Pro …

Friday October 28, 2022

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Friday October 28, 2022

Freeland warns of ‘difficult days ahead’ as Canada’s economy shows sign of weakness

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland issued a warning to Canadians Wednesday — the coming months won’t be pretty as rising interest rates slow a once red-hot economy and force some people out of their jobs.

June 17, 2022

The Bank of Canada’s recent rate hikes to tame sky-high inflation will increase borrowing costs for businesses and consumers alike, which will send shockwaves throughout the economy, Freeland said.

Speaking at an auto industry conference in Windsor, Ont., Freeland said she would be honest with Canadians about the roadblocks that lie ahead and the threat of higher unemployment and mortgage rates — developments that could hurt many households.

“Our economy will slow. There will be people whose mortgage rates will rise. Businesses will no longer be booming. Our unemployment rate will no longer be at its record low. That’s going to be the case in Canada. That will be the case in the U.S. and that will be the case in economies big and small around the world,” Freeland said.

“There are still some difficult days ahead for Canada’s economy. To say otherwise would be misleading.”

January 27, 2022

The Bank of Canada — like other central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve — has been aggressively raising rates this year to establish price stability and achieve its 2 per cent inflation target.

With inflation so sticky, economists are expecting more rate hikes to reduce demand and cool the economy. That could prompt a recession sometime in 2023.

While inflation has slowed somewhat in recent months as energy prices have stabilized, Freeland said the government will not be able to help everyone ride the inflationary wave.

“We cannot compensate every single Canadian for all of the costs of inflation driven by a global pandemic and Putin’s invasion of Ukraine,” Freeland said.

But she promised relief for the poorest Canadians who are most vulnerable to sudden spikes in the cost of food and rent.

June 22, 2021

During question period in the House of Commons on Wednesday, Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre said the federal Liberal government’s “half-trillion dollar inflationary deficits” over the past two fiscal years are responsible for the higher costs.

Pointing to the planned low-income supports, Poilievre said the prime minister has done “nothing for the vast majority of struggling families.”

“Even the small minority who do [receive the supports] will find it gobbled up by increased inflation,” he said, citing a recent RBC Royal Bank report that found the average family will lose $3,000 in purchasing power this year as a result of higher prices and interest rates.

He called on the government to scrap planned hikes to the federal carbon levy — something Poilievre has called a “triple, triple, triple tax” that will drive food prices higher because it will impose added costs on all parts of the supply chain.

August 12, 2022

In the face of Tory criticism, Freeland said the federal government will continue to tighten its belt in the coming months so that Ottawa doesn’t inadvertently drive inflation.

“Canadians are cutting back on costs and so too is our government. That’s our part … to not make inflation worse and more enduring,” she said.

Asked later by reporters if the government has more inflation relief planned, Freeland said now is a time for fiscal restraint. (CBC)