Tuesday December 10, 2024
Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Tuesday December 10, 2024
The Fall of Assad—A Milestone with Challenges Ahead
The end of Bashar al-Assad’s rule in Syria marks the fall of one of the most brutal and kleptocratic regimes in modern history. For decades, Assad maintained power through violence, corruption, and fear, overseeing a system that prioritized personal enrichment and oligarchic control while Syria’s people endured economic stagnation and political repression. His crimes against humanity include some of the darkest chapters of the 21st century. Chief among them was the use of sarin gas in Ghouta in 2013, which killed over 1,400 civilians, including hundreds of children, and similar chemical attacks in Douma and other towns. These atrocities, along with systematic torture, extrajudicial killings, and targeting of civilian infrastructure, demand that Assad be brought to justice at The Hague.
The fall of Assad’s regime should be a moment of hope for the Syrian people and the world. It eliminates a linchpin of regional instability and weakens the axis of Iran and Russia, both of whom propped up Assad to extend their influence and wage proxy wars. Tehran and Moscow now face significant setbacks, as Syria’s descent into chaos was a crucial element of their geopolitical strategies. The loss of a loyal ally also strains their broader plans to undermine Western influence and protect their regional interests.
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Yet optimism is tempered by the lessons of recent history. The fall of other autocrats—such as Muammar Gaddafi in Libya and Ali Abdullah Saleh in Yemen—has shown that the end of tyranny often leads not to peace, but to fragmentation. Already, Syria’s future is in question. The forces that toppled Assad remain fragmented, with unclear intentions. Will they work toward a pluralistic democracy, or will the vacuum be filled by militant Islamists or fractious warlords? The spectre of Syria becoming another Libya or Yemen looms large, and with it comes the threat of worsening humanitarian crises and regional instability.
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Adding to the complexity is the stance of President-elect Donald Trump, who has signalled a reluctance to engage. Trump’s dismissal of the crisis as “not our fight” and his stated preference for American disengagement risk leaving Syria’s future to be shaped entirely by other powers. While his instinct to avoid another costly military intervention is understandable, a complete abdication of U.S. influence would be shortsighted. Syria’s fate affects global security, refugee flows, and the balance of power in the Middle East.
However, engagement does not need to mean boots on the ground. The U.S. and its allies have diplomatic, economic, and humanitarian tools that can help steer Syria toward stability. Coordinating international aid, mediating among rival factions, and ensuring accountability for war crimes—including Assad’s use of chemical weapons—are ways the U.S. can support Syria’s transition without direct military involvement. Ignoring this moment, as some readers and commentators have noted, risks exacerbating the chaos and allowing the most ruthless actors to dictate Syria’s future.
The fall of Assad is a victory against tyranny, but it is only a step on the path to rebuilding a shattered nation. Syria’s people have suffered enough under his rule and deserve the chance to chart their own course. It is incumbent upon the international community to ensure this pivotal moment leads to peace, justice, and the beginnings of a stable, inclusive government. Whether Assad himself faces justice for his crimes will be a key test of that effort and a signal to other despots that impunity is no longer an option.