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Saturday November 9, 2019

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Saturday November 9, 2019

Doug Ford government tries for a reboot with its latest fiscal plan

Premier Doug Ford’s government is listening and Finance Minister Rod Phillips really wants you to know that.

November 1, 2019

“We listened to Ontarians,” said Phillips in a news conference after delivering the government’s budget update on Wednesday afternoon.

“We listened to what they thought was working well in the plan that we had, and we listened to the concerns that they had,” Phillips added.

“So you can expect this is a government that has listened and is going to continue to listen, and make sure that we make adjustments as we go along.”

The fiscal tally of all that listening is found in the pages of Phillips’s fall economic statement. The document accounts for the government’s recent backtracks, updating the budget from the $163.4 billion spending plan tabled in April by Vic Fedeli, whom Ford dumped as finance minister two months later.

August 21, 2019

The fall economic statement is part of the Ford government’s attempts to portray itself as new and improved, striking a new tone, turning over a new leaf. The budget update tries to do this by highlighting the spending cuts on which the government reversed course and recasting them as spending increases.

Technically, it’s true the PCs are increasing program spending by $1.3 billion from the April budget. In reality, this is simply putting some spending cuts that didn’t happen back on the government’s books.

Does a reversal of a spending cut equal a spending increase? NDP leader Andrea Horwath doesn’t think so.  

May 23, 2019

The fiscal update reflects merely “a softening of their previous cuts, a backtracking on some of their cuts, a delaying of some of their cuts, but really the cuts are still coming,” Horwath said Wednesday on CBC’s Power and Politics.

The new finance minister hasn’t fundamentally changed the budget that the old finance minister put in place, and acknowledged as much in his news conference.

“This isn’t about grand gestures,” said Phillips. “It’s about incremental important changes that make life easier for people.”

The update shows — just as the April budget did — that nearly every ministry is undergoing spending cuts this year from 2018-19 levels. Nominal increases in spending on health and education are not increases in real-dollar terms when population growth and inflation are considered. (CBC)

 

 

Saturday October 12, 2019

October 12, 2019

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Saturday October 12, 2019

Odds of a minority government rise, Liberal chances drop as Bloc surges in polls

Who had a Bloc resurgence on their federal election bingo card?

The campaign has seen one bizarre twist after another without any apparent impact on the polls — until now. This latest twist is a little retro. The Bloc Québécois, pronounced all but dead after 2011, has been reanimated and could significantly upend the election plans of the Liberals and Conservatives.

CBC Poll Tracker for October 15, 2019

The CBC Poll Tracker shifted suddenly in its latest update, with the Bloc’s gains in Quebec erasing the solid seat advantage the Liberals enjoyed over the Conservatives.

Since the beginning of this campaign, the Liberals had been favoured to win more seats than the Conservatives, regardless of which party was ahead in the national polling average. This was being driven in part by the party’s enduring edge in Ontario — but it was Quebec that made the difference.

October 10, 2015

Liberal support in Quebec has hovered around the 36 per cent mark the party hit in 2015. Because of the wide gap separating the Liberals from the other parties in Quebec, however, they could count on winning about 50 seats in the province, a net gain of 10 over the last election’s results.

But now, at just under 34 per cent, Liberal support is looking softer in Quebec. The Bloc, meanwhile, has picked up seven points in the last 10 days and has moved into second place in the province, with 27 per cent support.

That has dropped the Liberals into the mid-30s in the seat projection for Quebec, nearly tied with the Bloc Québécois. The Conservatives also have slipped and appear to be on track to win around 10 seats in Quebec, down from the 12 they took in 2015.

There is also now only a 25 per cent chance that either party can win a majority of seats.

The Bloc has been eating into the support of the Liberals, Conservatives and Greens in Quebec, though the seat impact has primarily been felt by the Liberals. That’s because the Conservative base of support in Quebec is concentrated around the Quebec City area, where polls suggest the party still holds a lead.

Not helping matters for the Liberals is the fact that the New Democrats appear to be building up some momentum of their own after a strong performance by NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh in Monday’s English-language debate. After posting poll numbers that would have given them about 15 seats nationwide, they are now projected to win around 24 seats.

So the coming week could prove to be decisive. After nearly five sleepy weeks, voters are wide awake and feeling volatile. Blink and you might miss the next twist. (CBC) 

 

Wednesday May 16, 2018

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Wednesday May 16, 2018

Ontario election: NDP overtakes Liberals as the ‘Anti-Ford’ party, according to Ipsos poll

NDP’s Andrea Horwath is jumping ahead of Kathleen Wynne and the Liberals one week into the 2018 Ontario Election.

According to an Ipsos poll conducted exclusively for Global News, the NDP is gaining ground with 35 per cent of respondents saying they would vote for Horwath’s party – that’s up six points from last week’s polling. The Liberals would only garner 22 per cent, down four per cent from last week.

But Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservatives are still ahead, with 40 per cent of respondents saying they would vote PC if an election were held tomorrow. That number is unchanged from last week.

Only three per cent say they would vote for other parties (including the Green Party).

“Normally you would expect the NDP not to be a factor in that the fight would be between the Liberals and the Conservatives,” pollster Darrel Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs, explained. (Source: Global News)