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Tuesday November 3, 2020

November 3, 2020 by Graeme MacKay

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Tuesday November 3, 2020

Canadians await U.S. election in fear, as poll reveals anxieties about aftermath

Canadians absorbed the first trickle of results Tuesday as their American neighbours went to the polls, capping a campaign marked by voter intimidation, threats of postelection violence, and concern about the potential breakdown of democracy itself.

November 6, 2012

The first returns showed U.S. President Donald Trump ahead, as expected, in Indiana and winning Kentucky, while an early see-saw for the crucial state of Florida was underway. But it was going to be a long night that would likely not produce a definitive result, said Mark Feigenbaum, the Toronto tax lawyer who is the chairman of Republicans Overseas Canada.

“It’s really encouraging that a lot of people are out voting. Whomever they’re voting for, I think it’s good,” he said.

Bessma Momani, an international affairs specialist at the University of Waterloo, said it was too early to draw any definitive conclusions.

“People are just projecting their own hopes,” she said.

November 11, 2016

“The early voting is pretty spectacular. From the academic side of this, usually early voting does not indicate a vote for the incumbent.”

Earlier Tuesday, a new poll from Leger and the Association for Canadian Studies found a clear majority of Canadians surveyed worried that the United States will suffer a breakdown of its system marked by “social chaos” if no clear winner emerges.

That fear was driven by the assumption that Trump won’t accept defeat if he does in fact lose, or may prematurely declare victory on election night before all votes, including mail-in ballots, can be legally counted.

The Leger poll found that three-quarters of those surveyed in Canada are worried about the U.S. election, and 68 per cent worry that there will be a “complete breakdown of the political system in the U.S. leading to a period of social chaos.”

Four out of five respondents said they were concerned that increased racial tension would lead to protests and violence. (CTV News) 

 

Posted in: Canada, USA Tagged: 2020-37, beaver, binoculars, Canada, election, fire, mask, neighbour, USA, vote

Thursday July 16, 2020

July 23, 2020 by Graeme MacKay

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Thursday July 16, 2020

UK should face ‘public and painful’ retaliation over Huawei decision, Chinese state media urges

February 12, 2020

Britain should face retaliation over its decision to ban Huawei from its 5G networks, Chinese state-backed media urged, dubbing the move “ill-founded.”

On Tuesday, the U.K. said the country’s mobile network operators will not be allowed to buy new Huawei 5G gear after Dec. 31. And the carriers must also strip out existing Huawei 5G gear by the end of 2027. 

The decision marked a U-turn by London after initially allowing Huawei to play a limited role in the U.K.’s next-generation mobile networks. 

January 30, 2020

New U.S. sanctions in May, aimed at cutting off Huawei from chip supplies made using American software and equipment, prompted an emergency review by Britain’s National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC). The organization said that “Huawei’s long term ability to build products using state-of-the-art technology has been severely affected.” 

“The U.K. can no longer be confident it will be able to guarantee the security of future Huawei 5G equipment,” the country’s digital minister, Oliver Dowden, said on Tuesday.

December 12, 2018

Huawei urged the government to reconsider the move, adding it was “confident” the new U.S. restrictions “would not have affected the resilience or security of the products we supply.” 

And while U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the U.K.‘s decision “advances Transatlantic security in the #5G era while protecting citizens’ privacy, national security, and free-world values,” Chinese state media urged retaliation. 

“It’s necessary for China to retaliate against UK, otherwise wouldn’t we be too easy to bully? Such retaliation should be public and painful for the UK,” the Global Times wrote. 

“But it’s unnecessary to turn it into a China-UK confrontation. The UK is not the US, nor Australia, nor Canada. It is a relative ‘weak link’ in the Five Eyes. In the long run, the UK has no reason to turn against China, with the Hong Kong issue fading out.”

The state-backed publication was referencing Britain’s criticisms of the new Hong Kong national security law that has stoked tensions between London and Beijing. (CNBC) 

 

Posted in: Canada, International Tagged: 2020-24, beaver, bulldog, Canada, China, diplomacy, dungeon, Great Britain, International, Michael Kovrig, Michael Spavor, torture, UK

Friday June 19, 2020

June 19, 2020 by Graeme MacKay

June 19, 2020

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Friday June 19, 2020

Why Canada fails time and again on the world stage

September 21, 2016

Our politicians are possibly the weakest link in the chain. They are never elected on the merits of their foreign policy ideas, and as a result never prioritize when in office. When they do think about it, they often confuse invitations to Davos and vacations in Tuscany as evidence they are worldly. They prioritize slogans (“Canada is back!”) and costumed photo-ops over the grueling legwork and devil’s bargains that real diplomatic strategy requires.

Our political leaders can be dilettantes because the Canadian public simply doesn’t care. Foreign policy is never on the top 10 list of voter priorities. They demand almost nothing from Ottawa other than access to Disney World. And they grossly overvalue soft power, mistaking Canada’s global popularity with power and influence.

And, of course, the public has the luxury of not caring because Canada is happily isolated, protected by oceans on three points of the compass, and by a mostly reliable behemoth on the fourth.

All of this was true under the previous government, and the government before them, going back decades. It has been pointed out endlessly. Hands have even been wrung. But nothing changes. Because ultimately none of us genuinely cares enough to do anything about it.

Losing the Security Council seat is not a catastrophe. It will be greeted with a lot of shrugs, and go largely unnoticed by the public. The Conservatives will howl in outrage, but they howl about even the tiniest things, so it is impossible to tell if they actually care. Tomorrow, we will move on, because the loss just doesn’t hurt.

March 4, 2020

At this point it is obvious that in order for any of this to change, we are going to need to be hurt. Canada is going to have to burn its fingers on the stove, burn them badly, before we finally take foreign affairs seriously.

What will that look like? I don’t know. Look around the world and at the various international nightmares being visited upon dozens of nations. Refugees, war, disasters, ethnic conflicts—it could be any or all of these at once. Canada’s turn will inevitably come. And when our real geopolitical crisis finally arrives, it will be ugly and traumatic as we collectively realize how many decades were wasted, and how little diplomatic muscle we have to claw our way back the day our luck runs out.

We were not elected to the United Nations Security Council today. There were two seats open and we were running against Ireland and Norway to fill them.

Before I continue, I need to say a few things to my former colleagues in the Canadian Foreign Service who might be reading this. You are going to roll your eyes at what I have to say. You’ll point out it’s all been said before (which is true). You will claim I don’t have the view from the field (also true). You will add that campaigns like this are infinitely harder than I understand (probably right). And you will accuse me of not appreciating the hard work being done by Canadian diplomats at home and abroad (here you are wrong).

Our loss in New York is not the fault of the Canadian diplomats who have been working for the last five years trying to secure the votes we needed today. The current team is one of the best, and they played the hand they were dealt as well as they could. And it was a lousy hand.

February 8, 2020

Norway and Ireland were always going to get the European bloc of votes. And while we are once again whoring ourselves out to Saudi Arabia with arms sales, we have been unpredictable enough to make them angry. That, combined with a typically pro-Israel foreign policy meant our Middle Eastern support was likely weak. In Africa, our aid spending has not kept pace with Norway or anyone else, and while our mining companies are mostly responsible players, there are enough bad apples to spoil the barrel. Add an angry China to the mix, which has one vote but lots of money to persuade other countries to vote against us, and the electoral math simply did not add up.

This loss is just more proof (throw it on the pile over there), that Canada’s foreign policy establishment is incredibly weak. This country does many things well. But international relations is just not one of them.

To start, we have a tiny academic community that studies foreign policy and educates future diplomats, limited to just a handful of specialized programs. And academia is almost entirely isolated from the practitioners at Global Affairs Canada. Unlike most other western countries, it is very rare for diplomats to move back and forth into universities (or into the private sector either). As a result, our foreign policy rarely benefits from new blood and new ideas.

Our politicians are possibly the weakest link in the chain. They are never elected on the merits of their foreign policy ideas, and as a result never prioritize when in office. When they do think about it, they often confuse invitations to Davos and vacations in Tuscany as evidence they are worldly. They prioritize slogans (“Canada is back!”) and costumed photo-ops over the grueling legwork and devil’s bargains that real diplomatic strategy requires.

Our political leaders can be dilettantes because the Canadian public simply doesn’t care. Foreign policy is never on the top 10 list of voter priorities. They demand almost nothing from Ottawa other than access to Disney World. And they grossly overvalue soft power, mistaking Canada’s global popularity with power and influence.

And, of course, the public has the luxury of not caring because Canada is happily isolated, protected by oceans on three points of the compass, and by a mostly reliable behemoth on the fourth.

October 13, 2010

All of this was true under the previous government, and the government before them, going back decades. It has been pointed out endlessly. Hands have even been wrung. But nothing changes. Because ultimately none of us genuinely cares enough to do anything about it.

Losing the Security Council seat is not a catastrophe. It will be greeted with a lot of shrugs, and go largely unnoticed by the public. The Conservatives will howl in outrage, but they howl about even the tiniest things, so it is impossible to tell if they actually care. Tomorrow, we will move on, because the loss just doesn’t hurt.

At this point it is obvious that in order for any of this to change, we are going to need to be hurt. Canada is going to have to burn its fingers on the stove, burn them badly, before we finally take foreign affairs seriously.

What will that look like? I don’t know. Look around the world and at the various international nightmares being visited upon dozens of nations. Refugees, war, disasters, ethnic conflicts—it could be any or all of these at once. Canada’s turn will inevitably come. And when our real geopolitical crisis finally arrives, it will be ugly and traumatic as we collectively realize how many decades were wasted, and how little diplomatic muscle we have to claw our way back the day our luck runs out. (MacLean’s) 

 

Posted in: Canada, International Tagged: 2020-22, beaver, Canada, diplomacy, International, issues, trophy, U.N. Security Council, U.N. United Nations, world stage

Thursday January 16, 2020

January 23, 2020 by Graeme MacKay

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Thursday January 16, 2020

‘Canada should be worried’: Canadian exporters may become collateral damage of U.S-China trade deal

June 28, 2019

The signing of a “Phase One” U.S.-China trade deal this week is expected to create a brief respite from uncertainty for the global economy — but that’s unlikely to last as long as President Donald Trump is in the White House, analysts say.

What’s more, Canadian exporters could become collateral damage of a deal that will see China commit to purchasing vast amounts of U.S. agricultural products and other goods.

Top officials are slated to sign the pact in Washington on Wednesday following two years of trade strife in which the U.S. slapped tariffs on nearly two-thirds of Chinese imports and Beijing targeted more than half of all goods purchased from the U.S.

May 11, 2019

Though the official text of the deal has yet to be released, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer has said China will purchase an additional US$200 billion in American goods over the next two years, including US$40 to US$50 billion in agricultural products.

The upending of trade flows as a result of such a commitment could create painful headaches for Canadian agricultural producers.

“The reason Canada should be worried about this is what is China actually agreeing to do?” said Chad Bown, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. “Are they agreeing to open their market for everybody? Or are they agreeing to reorient their purchases away from everybody else and toward American purchases? That matters.”

Animated!

Indeed, Canadian canola producers are already experiencing the chill of lost sales to the powerful Chinese market — which once accepted 40 per cent of their exports — after Beijing blocked all purchases of the oilseed. Though officials cited pest concerns, the move was widely viewed as retaliation for the arrest of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou in Vancouver on a U.S. extradition request. Meantime, Canadian soybean producers, having experienced a brief but dramatic spike in sales after China placed tariffs on U.S. beans, also saw sales to the superpower bottom out after the Wanzhou arrest.

Though Lighthizer has said the pact will be compliant with World Trade Organization rules, the Chinese purchasing commitments have also raised concerns about discrimination against some markets in favour of the U.S. The WTO’s “most favoured nation” rule requires all trading partners to be treated equally unless a full free trade agreement is forged. The U.S.-China deal covers only a limited range of goods. (Financial Post) 

 

Posted in: Canada, International Tagged: 2020-02, beaver, Canada, China, diplomacy, Donald Trump, Trade, USA, Xi Jingping

Tuesday October 22, 2019

October 29, 2019 by Graeme MacKay

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Tuesday October 22, 2019

Canada’s divisions have been thrown into sharp relief

December 13, 2018

The 2019 federal election confirmed deep rifts in the country – from reinvigorated Quebec nationalism to Prairie anger over stalled pipelines and a suffering economy. But the results also revealed divisions that rarely get the same attention, such as the widening gulf between cities and the aging populations of rural areas.

Returns Monday night showed the Bloc Québécois, once considered a spent force, competing for the plurality of Quebec’s 78 seats with the Liberals, powered by nationalist sentiment and greying voters; and Alberta and Saskatchewan stayed a deep shade of Conservative blue, with two isolated NDP and Liberal islands among the 48 seats.

December 1, 2016

Vast northern regions of Ontario, Manitoba and and the territories with large Indigenous populations were shades of red and orange, along with downtown Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver, where there was a smattering of green. Mid-sized cities and the suburbs were the swing riding checkerboards that decided the election in the end.

The Liberal victory pitted big cities against rural regions, the North against southern cousins and the old against the young. Younger urban and northern ridings largely remained with the centre-left parties, while aging rural areas were resoundingly Conservative and Bloc Québécois.

December 20, 2018

Renewed leadership has helped drive Quebec nationalism and more robust Prairie demands, turning Quebec to the Bloc and keeping the countryside blue.

In Alberta, Jason Kenney has suggested that another term of Trudeau government would threaten national unity, while Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe has been a reliable wingman, pushing Prairie interests with Ottawa.

“It’s certainly true that a Liberal victory of any kind will not be well perceived, especially by the two premiers who have gone to war against Justin Trudeau,” said Daniel Béland, director of the McGill Institute for the Study of Canada, who taught for 17 years at universities in Alberta and Saskatchewan before moving to the Montreal think tank last year. “It will increase the tension with Ottawa with Justin Trudeau remaining in power, even as a minority [government]. A majority [would have been] a scream fest.”

July 12, 2019

Both Quebec’s second-year Premier François Legault and rookie Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet rose by promising to add urgency to provincial demands for more autonomy.

“The big winner of this election is François Legault,” said Jean-Marc Léger, founder of the polling firm that bears his name. “He was at the heart of the campaign, and after what happened in this campaign he’s going to carry a much greater weight when he makes demands.”

Mr. Léger also noted that separatist and nationalist parties garnered 70 per cent of popular support in the 2018 Quebec election and were still well over 50 per cent during most of the Liberal years, from 2003 to 2018.

August 30, 2012

“There is always a strong nationalist sentiment in Quebec,” he said. “It’s just not always apparent.”

During those Liberal years, the province was led by Jean Charest and Philippe Couillard, two of the “most federalist and least nationalist premiers in Quebec history. You have to go back to Adélard Godbout in the Second World War to find a Quebec premier who had so little interest in nationalism,” Prof. Béland said.

The rise of Quebec nationalism and deep Prairie grievance do not pose immediate existential threats to national unity. Separatism is unpopular, and Quebec nationalism and Western alienation have been part of Canadian identity for most of the country’s history.

“Regional differences may be growing at the moment, but in Canada it’s cyclical,” Prof. Béland said. “I don’t think we’ll ever get rid of regionalism or Quebec nationalism. Sometimes they go dormant or are less active, but they are always there.” (Globe & Mail) 

 

Posted in: Canada Tagged: #elxn2019, 2019-37, Alberta, alienation, alligator, beaver, Canada, crocodile, division, nationalism, Quebec, separatism
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