Census

Thursday May 5, 2017

By Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Thursday May 5, 2017

Canada now has more seniors than children, census reveals

For the first time in history, the percentage of seniors in the population (16.9 per cent) now exceeds the share of children (16.6 per cent), new census data reveals.

February 24, 2012

The increase in the proportion of seniors between 2011 and 2016—up from 14.8 per cent – is the largest since 1871, Statistics Canada said Wednesday as it took the wraps off the latest information gleaned from the 2016 census.

“This gap will continue to increase in the future, so basically we can say that there is no coming back. It’s long-lasting change,” said Laurent Martel, director of the demography division at Statistics Canada.

The statistics agency cites two factors for the changing demographics. The baby boomers – those born between 1946 and 1965 – are getting older. As well, increasing life expectancy combined with low fertility rates since the 1970s means seniors are an increasing proportion of Canada’s population.

Martel notes that other baby boomers are approaching retirement – the proportion of people between 55 and 64 reached a record high of 21 per cent in 2016 – meaning that an aging population will be the story of Canada’s population for decades to come.

“We know that other cohorts of boomers will follow in the coming years, meaning that population aging will remain fairly fast until 2031, when the last boomers will reach 65,” Martel said in an interview.

By 2061, these patterns will mean there could mean that Canada has 12 million seniors and fewer than 8 million children.

Still, Canada is the young kid on the block – Canada had a lower proportion of seniors than any other G7 country except the United States.

And the share of people aged 15 to 64 – 23.4 million Canadians, about 66.5 per cent of the total population, down from 68.5 per cent in 2011 – was also higher in Canada than in other countries. That means Canada still has a large working-age population, even though the growth rate in this age bracket between 2011 and 2016 is the lowest recorded between two censuses since 1851. (Toronto Star) 

Adapted from a cartoon originally drawn August 20, 2013.

 

Thursday November 19, 2015

By Graeme MacKay, Editorial Cartoonist, The Hamilton Spectator - Thursday November 19, 2015 Fact Check: Will the return of the long-form census save money? The voluntary process actually cost an additional $22 million. Making it mandatory will actually make it less expensive, (and) it will be on budget and on time." -- Economic Development Minister Navdeep Bains The Trudeau Liberals, in one of their first acts in government, brought back the long-form census. Bains proclaimed the decision wouldn't cost taxpayers anything more than what is already budgeted for the 2016 census. Indeed, the minister, who oversees Statistics Canada, said taxpayers are likely to save some cash with the return of the mandatory, long-form census. Will Statistics Canada save money with the return of the mandatory questionnaire? Spoiler alert: The Canadian Press Baloney Meter is a dispassionate examination of political statements culminating in a ranking of accuracy on a scale of "no baloney" to "full of baloney" (complete methodology through this link). http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/fact-check-will-the-return-of-the-long-form-census-save-money-1.2654881 This one receives a finding of "a little baloney" -- it is largely accurate about the mandatory census costing less than the voluntary survey, but there are details missing that would help determine the actual savings figure. The government will save money because the mandatory survey is less costly to administer than the voluntary version, experts say. "There are at least a couple of significant reasons why there would be savings" Fellegi said. "I mean, not gobs of money, but savings." The savings start with the number of people hired to help with the census. For the 2016 census, Statistics Canada is hiring 1,400 people for the data centre that processes responses. Statistics Canada needs all those bodies to handle answers and followup with Canadians who don't fill in the form either because they didn't want to, forgot to, or mi

By Graeme MacKay, Editorial Cartoonist, The Hamilton Spectator – Thursday November 19, 2015

Fact Check: Will the return of the long-form census save money?

The voluntary process actually cost an additional $22 million. Making it mandatory will actually make it less expensive, (and) it will be on budget and on time.” — Economic Development Minister Navdeep Bains

Thursday, September 19, 2013The Trudeau Liberals, in one of their first acts in government, brought back the long-form census.

Bains proclaimed the decision wouldn’t cost taxpayers anything more than what is already budgeted for the 2016 census. Indeed, the minister, who oversees Statistics Canada, said taxpayers are likely to save some cash with the return of the mandatory, long-form census.

Will Statistics Canada save money with the return of the mandatory questionnaire?

Spoiler alert: The Canadian Press Baloney Meter is a dispassionate examination of political statements culminating in a ranking of accuracy on a scale of “no baloney” to “full of baloney” (complete methodology through this link).

This one receives a finding of “a little baloney” — it is largely accurate about the mandatory census costing less than the voluntary survey, but there are details missing that would help determine the actual savings figure.

The government will save money because the mandatory survey is less costly to administer than the voluntary version, experts say.

“There are at least a couple of significant reasons why there would be savings” Fellegi said. “I mean, not gobs of money, but savings.”

The savings start with the number of people hired to help with the census. For the 2016 census, Statistics Canada is hiring 1,400 people for the data centre that processes responses.

By Graeme MacKay, Editorial Cartoonist, The Hamilton Spectator - Tuesday November 17, 2015 Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says Canada will "do its part" in the military fight against ISIS, but remains committed to withdrawing warplanes from the mission. During a news conference at the G20 summit in Antalya, Turkey, Trudeau said Friday's attacks in Paris will not prompt the government to reverse course on a plan to pull out Canada's fighter jets. Instead, Canada will step up training of local troops, he said. "I know that Canada will continue to, and be seen to be continuing to, do its part in the fight against this terrorist scourge," he said. The Liberal platform during the campaign for the recent federal election committed to end the combat mission and "refocus" on training local forces in Iraq. Trudeau said that commitment remains, but he has not set a timetable for when Canada will withdraw from the U.S.-led air combat mission. "We made a clear commitment in the campaign to stop the bombing mission by Canadian jets and replace it with a role for Canada that is still a serious military role, but leaned more towards training of local troops to be able to bring the fight directly to ISIL," he said, referring to the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). "That's the commitment we made very clearly throughout the campaign and we have a mandate to do that." On Sunday, two of Canada's fighter jets were involved in a strike against an ISIS fighting position in Iraq, according to the Department of National Defence. The G20 leaders released a joint statement at the G20 summit, calling the attacks in Paris "an unacceptable affront to all humanity" and reaffirming solidarity in the fight against terrorism as a major priority. The statement says counterterror actions must be part of a comprehensive approach that includes fighting radicalization and recruitment, hampering terrorist movements and preventing terrorists from exploiting the internet. "The direct or ind

Statistics Canada needs all those bodies to handle answers and followup with Canadians who don’t fill in the form either because they didn’t want to, forgot to, or misplaced it. Doug Norris, who spent nearly 30 years at Statistics Canada, said the agency will need fewer bodies with a mandatory survey going to fewer homes.

“Followup is extremely expensive,” Norris said.

The return of the mandatory long-form census is likely to cause some savings over at Statistics Canada. Just how much is tough to say. For that reason, the statement of savings has “a little baloney” — the statement is mostly accurate, but more information would be helpful to determine how much the agency will save.

There could also be wider economic benefits from the return of the long-form census: Better quality data could reduce costs for municipalities and school boards, for instance, when it comes to planning for future growth, said Kevin Milligan, an economist at the University of British Columbia.

And Charles Beach, a retired economics professor at Queen’s University, said that kind of data is worth it even if the 2016 census ends up costing more than the 2011 version. (Source: CTV News)

 

Tuesday August 18, 2015

By Graeme MacKay, Editorial Cartoonist, The Hamilton Spectator - Tuesday August 18, 2015 Ingredients of a populist rebellion simmer in Canada Politicians take heed: Populist rebellions are under way in both the United States and Britain. Canada is not immune. If a backlash against political elites who disrespect voters ever reaches our shores, it will not be pretty. This grey decade has left all developed nations grappling with low growth, high unemployment and way too much debt, personal and governmental. Populist movements have swept through Canada in the past, usually in times of discontent. The Great Depression spawned both the Co-operative Commonwealth Federation on the left and Social Credit on the right. Western anger at Central CanadaÕs indifference spawned the Reform Party in the 1980s. So why has Canada been spared its own Donald Trump or Jeremy Corbyn? Luck, mostly. The recession in Canada wasnÕt as severe as in the U.S. or Britain. The Conservative government was able to bring the budget back into balance without having to impose much in the way of austerity. More important, while politics in Canada is polarizing between left and right, it does so within a deep consensus on the importance of both horizontal (between regions) and vertical (between classes) redistribution. But Canada is not immune to populist pressure from either the left or right. The Occupy movement, a populist protest from the left, flared in Canadian cities as well as in the United States and overseas. Doug Ford took 34 per cent of the vote in the 2014 Toronto mayoral election, despite his brotherÕs outrages. When any governing political elite ignores or belittles a group of voters, it risks a populist backlash. If the Conservatives win the next election, social activists may take direct action against them. If the NDP or Liberals win, and the economy suffers because there is no political will to build an oil pipeline anywhere, expect a populist reaction from the right, especi

By Graeme MacKay, Editorial Cartoonist, The Hamilton Spectator – Tuesday August 18, 2015

Ingredients of a populist rebellion simmer in Canada

Politicians take heed: Populist rebellions are under way in both the United States and Britain. Canada is not immune. If a backlash against political elites who disrespect voters ever reaches our shores, it will not be pretty.

This grey decade has left all developed nations grappling with low growth, high unemployment and way too much debt, personal and governmental.

Populist movements have swept through Canada in the past, usually in times of discontent. The Great Depression spawned both the Co-operative Commonwealth Federation on the left and Social Credit on the right. Western anger at Central Canada’s indifference spawned the Reform Party in the 1980s.

So why has Canada been spared its own Donald Trump or Jeremy Corbyn? Luck, mostly. The recession in Canada wasn’t as severe as in the U.S. or Britain. The Conservative government was able to bring the budget back into balance without having to impose much in the way of austerity.

More important, while politics in Canada is polarizing between left and right, it does so within a deep consensus on the importance of both horizontal (between regions) and vertical (between classes) redistribution.

But Canada is not immune to populist pressure from either the left or right. The Occupy movement, a populist protest from the left, flared in Canadian cities as well as in the United States and overseas. Doug Ford took 34 per cent of the vote in the 2014 Toronto mayoral election, despite his brother’s outrages.

When any governing political elite ignores or belittles a group of voters, it risks a populist backlash. If the Conservatives win the next election, social activists may take direct action against them.

If the NDP or Liberals win, and the economy suffers because there is no political will to build an oil pipeline anywhere, expect a populist reaction from the right, especially in the West.

With luck, things will never get as extreme as Donald Trump or Jeremy Corbyn. But don’t be too certain. Remember Rob Ford. (Source: Globe & Mail)

 

Thursday September 20, 2012

By Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator, Thursday September 20, 2012

Nuclear family is no longer the norm in Canada

The mom-pop-and-three-kids-under-one-roof model that typified Canadian households of 50 years ago has morphed into a complex and diverse web of family ties involving living alone, re-marriage, stepchildren, empty-nesters and multiple generations sharing a home.

Statistics Canada has released the third tranche of new data from its 2011 census, this time portraying the changes in Canadian families and living arrangements over five decades.

Married couples are in a long-term decline, single parenting has risen persistently, and families have gradually shrunk. The average family was 3.9 people in 1961, when the baby boom was in full swing. Now, it’s 2.9.

“We do see more complexity and definitely more diversity in families,” said Statistics Canada demographer Anne Milan.

For the first time, Statistics Canada says there are more people living alone in Canada than there are couples with children. One-person households now make up 27.6 per cent of all homes, a three-fold increase since 1961 that is especially notable in Quebec.

Meanwhile, couples with children have continued their decline, down to 26.5 per cent of all households, from 28.5 per cent in 2006.

Just 10 years ago, couples with children under 24 years old made up 43.6 per cent of all families (not including one-person households) — by far the most typical kind of family. (Source: Toronto Star) 

 

Thursday August 5, 2010

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Thursday August 5, 2010

No consensus’ on census

Premiers of Canada’s three westernmost provinces, who often speak with one voice on economic and trade issues, all said the census is not a priority for them. Virtually every premier east of Manitoba urged the Harper government to rethink its plans.“I don’t know what motivates them not to do the census,” Quebec Premier Jean Charest told reporters on Friday. “Getting the information is essential for us to make good decisions.”

Nova Scotia Premier Darrell Dexter said the proposal leads people to question the Harper government’s motivation. “It kind of defines who they are as a government,” he said in an interview. “I’m not sure it’s particularly flattering.”

New Brunswick Premier Shawn Graham lashed out at the Harper government for attacking the provinces over the census.

“I have to admit, I was a bit shocked this morning to see the federal government out criticizing the premiers on this, saying it’s a free ride for the provinces,” Mr. Graham told reporters. “It’s safe to say they’re a bit on the defensive on this issue and that’s unfortunate.”

He was responding to Industry Minister Tony Clement, who said critics are upset because they enjoyed a free ride all the years that Ottawa forced Canadians to provide detailed demographic data. (Source: Globe & Mail) 

 

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