covid-19

Thursday October 1, 2020

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Thursday October 1, 2020

Ontario’s 2nd wave of COVID-19 forecast to peak in October

Fresh projections suggest that Ontario’s second wave of COVID-19 will peak in mid- to late October and will likely send enough patients to intensive care that hospitals will need to scale back non-emergency surgeries.

September 22, 2020

The forecasts come from the COVID-19 Modelling Collaborative, a joint effort of scientists and physicians from the University of Toronto, University Health Network and Sunnybrook Hospital. 

Based on how quickly Ontario’s infection rate has been rising in recent weeks, the model projects the province is on track to exceed 1,000 new cases per day by the middle of October, unless stricter public health measures slow the accelerating spread.

The average number of new cases reported daily in Ontario is currently running four times higher than what it was at the end of August. Premier Doug Ford’s government has since shrunk limits on the size of private gatherings, reduced opening hours for bars and ordered strip clubs to close.

On Monday, Ontario reported an additional 700 cases of COVID-19, the most on a single day since the outbreak began in late January. The figure surpasses the previous high of 640 from April 24.

May 29, 2020

On Sunday, Ontario’s Ministry of Health reported 112 patients in hospital with a confirmed case of COVID-19, nearly triple the number of two weeks ago. The research team says the impact of the second wave on Ontario’s hospitals will depend on the demographics of who gets infected in the coming weeks. 

The team of researchers has run four scenarios for how Ontario’s second wave could play out from here.

The best-case scenario would mimic Ontario’s first wave in March and April, when case numbers increased rapidly but were then reined in by a lockdown. 

Two moderate scenarios would resemble how a second wave hit jurisdictions comparable to Ontario: the Australian state of Victoria (home to Melbourne, a city of five million), and the U.S. state of Michigan. 

None of those three scenarios shows COVID-19 patients filling Ontario’s hospital wards or ICUs beyond their capacity. That happens only in the modellers’ worst-case scenario: a second wave as severe as the first wave that hit Italy when the pandemic began.

However, in all but the best-case scenario, the researchers foresee ICU demand that exceeds the capacity required for patients undergoing scheduled surgeries. (CBC)

 

Wednesday September 30, 2020

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Wednesday September 30, 2020

It’s time to consider shutting down casinos, theatres and malls, leading health expert says

As COVID-19 cases continue to pile up, a leading health expert says the Ontario government should consider shutting down casinos, movie theatres and shopping malls. Industry defenders, meanwhile, say closures would be unnecessary and unfair.

July 17, 2020

“Closing them completely should be a last resort. But I think we need to consider everything right now. How surgical can we afford to be?” said Dr. Abdu Sharkawy, an infectious disease specialist with the University Health Network.

Tuesday, Ontario had 554 new COVID-19 cases, down from a record-setting 700 the day before. But Sharkawy warns we haven’t come close to the peak of the second wave.

“I have no doubt that we’ll be seeing a thousand cases per day within the next two to three weeks,” said Sharkawy, who was surprised to see some Ontario casinos reopen on Monday for the first time since March. Casinos had been allowed to open since the province hit Stage 3 in mid-July, but casino operators had been negotiating unsuccessfully with the province to boost a 50-customer cap.

June 17, 2020

Those casinos are all managed by Great Canadian Gaming Co., which runs 11 casinos in Ontario, including at Woodbine and Mohawk.

Shutting casinos down wouldn’t be fair to the industry’s 17,000 workers in Ontario, said Paul Burns, president and CEO of the Canadian Gaming Association, the casino industry’s national trade association.

A spokesperson for the provincial ministry of health said the government is still monitoring the COVID situation across Ontario, and could implement further restrictions.

“The government, in consultation with public health experts, continues to review trends from a range of criteria on an ongoing basis to determine if public health measures need to be adjusted or tightened,” said Anna Miller. 

Allowing just 50 customers into a casino that’s designed for thousands isn’t a money-maker, said Burns. Not that it’s being done for charitable purposes, he admitted.

“They wanted to demonstrate to public health officials that they could open and operate in a safe manner. It’s not economically viable at 50 people,” said Burns. Eventually, Burns said the casino industry would like to see more gamblers coming through the doors. (The Hamilton Spectator) 

 

 

Saturday September 26, 2020

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Saturday September 26, 2020

COVID-19 precautions to curtail Thanksgiving gatherings

With a little over two weeks before Thanksgiving on Oct. 12, a growing chorus of public health and political leaders are urging Canadians to scale back any plans for a sprawling dinner party.

April 11, 2020

The pleas started with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s sobering national address Wednesday, and were amplified Thursday by officials in Ontario and Quebec — where the bulk of infections and deaths have occurred.

Health Minister Christian Dube urged Quebecers to avoid parties over the next few weeks — including the Thanksgiving long weekend — while Quebec’s public health director suggested private gatherings are driving infections rather than restaurants, where restrictions are in place.

“Which is very different from a party where … we forget (to maintain) your two metres,” said Dr. Horacio Arruda, referring to social distancing guidance.

Earlier on Thursday, Ontario Premier Doug Ford also acknowledged the temptation to gather with extended friends and family but stressed the importance of maintaining precautions.

“Nothing is more important than family and loved ones getting together,” said Ford.

“But in saying that, we’ve got to keep it under 10.”

Life in a Pandemic

Alberta’s chief medical health officer, Dr. Deena Hinshaw, said Thursday that Thanksgiving can still happen as long as people practice caution and stick to gathering within their “cohorts,” which in the province is a bubble of up to 15 people.

“Smaller is safer. This is not the time for large gatherings,” Hinshaw said.

Infectious disease specialists warned any relaxation of the rules could undo months of sacrifice.

Dr. Gerald Evans, chair of the division of infectious diseases at Queen’s University in Kingston, Ont., advised against travel and merging bubbles that share extended family members, even if it’s for just one night.

“Some families there might be a bubble of them in Toronto, a bubble of them in Ottawa, a bubble of them in Kingston,” notes Evans.

“But if at Thanksgiving they’re sort of saying well you know winter’s coming this is our last chance (so) let’s all get together, then all of a sudden you’ve got a conglomeration of what could be up to 30 people, and whatever other little connections they have.” (CTV) 

 

Thursday September 24, 2020

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Thursday September 24, 2020

Covid: US death toll passes 200,000

More than 6.8 million people are known to have been infected in the US, more than in any other country. 

September 15, 2020

The milestone comes amid an increase in cases in a number of states, including North Dakota and Utah. 

President Donald Trump said on Tuesday the new death toll was a “horrible thing” and claimed China “should have stopped” the virus. 

He also defended his record, claiming that had the US not taken action, “you could have two million, 2.5 or three million” dead. 

JHU reported the new death toll of 200,005 on Tuesday. The university has been collecting US and global coronavirus data since the outbreak began late last year in China. The first case in the US was confirmed in January.

President Trump’s administration has been repeatedly criticised over its handling of the outbreak. 

August 26, 2020

“Due to Donald Trump’s lies and incompetence in the past six months, [we] have seen one of the greatest losses of American life in history,” Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden said on Monday. 

“With this crisis, a real crisis, a crisis that required serious presidential leadership, he just wasn’t up to it. He froze. He failed to act. He panicked. And America has paid the worst price of any nation in the world.”

But on the same day, Mr Trump said he and his administration had done “a phenomenal job” and gave himself an “A+” for his handling of the pandemic. 

He said the US was “rounding the corner on the pandemic, with or without a vaccine”. (BBC) 

 

Tuesday September 22, 2020

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Tuesday September 22, 2020

No charges laid at ‘mega meet’ car rally in Ancaster; Premier Ford calls gathering ‘totally unacceptable’

Ontario Premier Doug Ford is calling an impromptu car “mega meet” that saw several hundred people gather in an Ancaster parking lot Saturday night “totally unacceptable” amid the COVID-19 pandemic. 

July 29, 2008

Speaking to media Sunday, Hamilton police Supt. Will Mason said officers arrived at the parking lot of the Ancaster Cineplex Cinemas at 771 Golf Links Rd just shortly after 6 p.m. following a tip from the Project Eliminate Racing Activity on Streets Everywhere (ERASE) team.

Mason said the task force — which consists of the OPP as well as York and Peel Regional Police forces — had informed Hamilton police that an event coined “Mega Meet 2.0” was planned for that evening in the area. 

When officers arrive on scene, Mason said they found a “large group” of vehicles already setting up in the parking lot. 

Over the next hour, Mason said the group “swelled” to completely fill the movie theatre lot, the adjacent Indigo bookstore lot and had “spilled” into the smaller surrounding lots.

In a statement Sunday, Ford said the “reckless behaviour” seen in the lots was “totally unacceptable.”

“While Ontario has made incredible progress in the fight against COVID-19, we cannot take that progress for granted,” he added. 

With an initial response of three Hamilton police officers, Mason said the force called in the ERASE team for assistance to “prevent a repeat of previous incidents.”

May 26, 2020

No charges — neither traffic violations or for gathering in large groups — were laid during the police response, said Mason. 

On Saturday morning, Ford announced that the province would be clamping down on the number of people allowed at social gatherings in Ontario to slow the spread of the virus. 

Effective immediately, private, unmonitored gatherings are to be limited to 10 people indoors and 25 people outdoors. 

Saturday evening’s event garnered several hundred people — well beyond the limit, said Mason. 

“The goal at that time was to disperse the crowd as quickly as possible. That helps us mitigate both the risk of COVID-19 as well as the risk of street racing,” he said. “Stopping all of those individuals and issuing fines just exacerbates the size and the duration of that gathering.” (Hamilton Spectator)