covidiot

Thursday June 17, 2021

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Thursday June 17, 2021

Think bigger, and smaller, than a vaccine lottery

The percentage of Canadians who’ve had their first shot of COVID-19 vaccine has rocketed this country to the top of the global charts. Yet even as Canada pivots to focusing on second doses, one-quarter of Canadian adults and teens have still not taken their first shot.

December 11, 2020

Could a lottery get them to stretch out their arms?

Last month, Ohio decided to try that approach. It’s part populism, part behavioural science. 

On May 12, the governor announced that the vaccinated would be entered into a draw, with a US$1-million prize awarded weekly, for five weeks.

The behavioural science insight behind all of this is that the human brain tends to misjudge probabilities. It’s why lotteries, with their poor odds – Ohio’s grand-prize odds are roughly one in a million – are often referred to as a tax on stupidity. Ohio decided to try to harness that stupidity for a good cause, namely boosting the vaccination rate. Several other states followed its lead, as have Manitoba and Alberta.

So how are things working out?

October 27, 2006

Thanks at least in part to Vax-a-Million, Ohio’s low vaccination rate did rise – but only for a short time.

In the seven days up to and including May 12 – the day the lottery was announced – the state of nearly 12 million people administered fewer than 92,000 first shots, according to our calculations from data on Ohio’s vaccine dashboard. The next week, after the lottery launched, first-shot vaccinations more than doubled.

The following week, however, vaccinations dropped by about a quarter. The next week, they dropped by almost half. The following week, they fell some more; the week after that, they fell sharply again.

And over the five days to June 14, Ohio averaged about half as many first shots as in the five days leading up to the lottery launch.

Ohio, which has now given a first dose to 47 per cent of its population, needed to up its rate by as much as 20 percentage points. Vax-a-Million appears to have delivered a boost of perhaps two percentage points, at most.

April 8, 2008

So far, Alberta’s lotto results are even less promising. Premier Jason Kenney announced the lottery plan 

on Saturday; on Sunday, Alberta recorded its lowest number of first shots since February. Monday’s tally was the second lowest since February. Tuesday was even lower.

There are many reasons why a quarter of eligible Canadians are still not vaccinated. The lack of pandemic prizes is likely the least of it. (Globe & Mail) 

 

Saturday January 16, 2021

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Saturday January 16, 2021

Why Doug Ford probably won’t regret expelling this rogue MPP

December 1, 2020

The forces looking to make martyrs out of every single person who faces consequences for foolishness are probably already at work trying to make Roman Baber, the now-independent, formerly Tory MPP for York Centre, into the next saint of free speech. Baber was defenestrated from the Progressive Conservative caucus Friday morning after having released a letter, addressed to the premier, calling for an end to lockdowns — so he’ll undoubtedly be lauded by the conspiracist set. This would be a mistake on their part, but, then, if these people had any ability to navigate the world without making obvious errors, Baber would still be in the PC caucus.

Baber, a lawyer who won the York Centre seat from the Liberals in the 2018 election, had not particularly distinguished himself as an MPP and had a habit of getting attention for the wrong reasons. There was his heckling of former premier Kathleen Wynne, which was so egregious that even the Tory leadership tried to disavow it. Earlier in the pandemic, he advised a constituent that that he could “see [his] parents,” despite the risks to the elderly from COVID-19.

June 15, 2018

The first time Baber appeared on my radar was probably during the ill-fated select committee the Tories convened at Queen’s Park to try to throw a show trial for former Liberal ministers — but especially Wynne. The day Wynne testified at the committee was only ever going to be antagonistic, but Baber’s performance was something else — as I noted at the time, he was so over the top that the chair of the committee (PC MPP Prabmeet Sarkaria) repeatedly told him to knock it off.

June 21, 2019

The select-committee episode wasn’t the PC party’s finest hour in government, but Sarkaria handled the dubious job of chairing that committee well, and now he’s a cabinet minister. Several other MPPs who at least took their jobs seriously that day are either in cabinet or have other substantial positions in the government. Wynne comported herself well, and, years later, even Doug Ford has respectful and kind words to say about the former premier — they are, after all, both members of what’s still a small political club.

Baber chose a different path: he played stupid games and won stupid prizes. And so his career in high-level politics is almost certainly over, at least for a while. Don’t feel too bad for him, though: he’ll get to collect a six-figure paycheque as an MPP until the next election, and, after that, there are always city councils and school boards (where, alas, the profoundly unserious can continue to have long careers further away from the media spotlight). And, if none of that pans out, he’s still a lawyer, though having seen the quality of his arguments, I would suggest that anyone looking for counsel shop around a bit more.

While he probably has friends in caucus who’ll regret his absence at the next meeting, at the higher levels of the Tory leadership, it’s hard to believe he’ll be missed: his primary skill seemed to be grabbing headlines the government came to regret, and his expulsion gives the Tories the opportunity to find someone better able to defend a seat the Liberals could mount a very serious challenge for in 2022. (Continued: John Michael McGrath , TVO)