debt

Thursday November 22, 2018

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Thursday November 22, 2018

Fiscal update to lay out competitiveness plan, close loop on some Liberal vows

The federal government will release a fall economic update Wednesday that will seek to close the loop on some of its outstanding mandate commitments, leaving the door open for the Liberals to use next year’s budget as their 2019 election platform.

March, 1, 2018

The document will also include Finance Minister Bill Morneau’s long-awaited plan to help Canada compete for investment dollars, which many warn has become increasingly difficult following major tax and regulatory changes in the United States.

Morneau has faced pressure to lower Canada’s corporate rate, but the government has signalled it will focus on targeted measures to accelerate investment rather than across-the-board tax cuts.

The document will likely be the Liberal government’s second-last opportunity — besides the spring budget — to deliver major policy announcements and its political pitch in package form before the October 2019 election.

February 12, 2016

As for fiscal responsibility, the official said the fall statement will show that Canada’s annual projections for the federal deficit and the debt burden will continue to slide downward on trajectories similar to those outlined in the 2018 budget.

The Liberals have faced regular criticism from the Opposition Conservatives for abandoning their 2015 vow to run only modest annual shortfalls of no more than $10 billion and to eliminate the deficit by 2019.

Instead, the Liberals have posted deficits of more than $18 billion in each of the last two years.

As its guiding principle on fiscal responsibility, the government has focused on lowering the country’s debt burden — as measured by net debt-to-GDP — rather than balancing the books.

The debt-to-GDP ratio fell to 31.3 per cent in 2017-18 from 32 per cent in 2016-17. The government has predicted the ratio to fall to 30.1 per cent in 2018-19 and continue sliding each year until it reaches 28.4 per cent in 2022-23. (Source: CTV News) 

 

Friday June 8, 2018

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Friday June 8, 2018

‘We have taken back Ontario’: Doug Ford leads PCs to majority government

Led by Doug Ford, Ontario’s Progressive Conservatives have secured a majority government, ending nearly 15 years of Liberal power in the province.

The NDP will form the province’s Official Opposition, while the embattled Liberals were handed a substantial rebuke from voters, losing the vast majority of their seats at Queen’s Park.

Kathleen Wynne announced she will resign as Liberal leader, as the Grits failed to pick up the eight seats necessary to maintain official party status.Buoyed by Ford — a one-term Toronto city councillor and businessman — the PCs ran a populist campaign long on commitments but short on fiscal details, promising a tax cut for the middle class and corporations and a drastic reduction in the price of hydro and gasoline.

“My friends, this victory belongs to you. This victory belongs to the people. And tonight, the people of Ontario have spoken,” Ford said in a victory speech to supporters at an event in Toronto.

“I promised to deliver a strong, stable majority government and together we did that. Together we made history. We have taken back Ontario, we have delivered a government that is for the people,” he continued.

As was expected, NDP Leader Andrea Horwath held onto her seat in Hamilton Centre, where she has served as an MPP since 2004. Heading into election day, polls suggested that the NDP had a slim chance of eking out a win. While such an improbably scenario never materialized, the New Democrats manged to take 39 seat, up from the 18 they held when the campaign began. 

Wynne, Ontario’s first female and openly LGBT premier, was re-elected in Don Valley West, though the race was much tighter than it has been in previous years. The incumbent Liberals, who enjoyed a majority since 2014, suffered a stunning collapse. 

The party only managed to secure seven seats, which means they have lost official party status in the Legislature.  (Source: CBC) 

Back up Cartoons

On election night it’s always a good idea for cartoonists to have cartoons drawn up in advance in case the results don’t go quite as planned. For last night I drew the above one for a healthy PC victory. I had components ready for a minority NDP result ready to go, which I felt was unlikely. Here are the others… for a weak PC majority/minority and a PC landslide

     
Time machine back to the back up cartoons from 2014 election

The Results vs. the Polls

The Results of the 2018 Ontario Provincial Election (voter turnout 58%)

PC: 76 seats, 40.49%   NDP: 40 seats, 33.57%   LIB: 7 seats, 19.59%  

Green: 1 seat, 4.6%

This election has been very well polled and nicely aggregated by the CBC through it’s poll tracker. In recent elections surveys have been pretty unreliable in forecasting the outcomes in Canada’s recent federal election, and especially the Brexit referendum, the U.S. Presidential and the French elections. Knowing the site will likely be refreshed soon, here is a screen graph of all the findings right up to a day before voting day 2018.

Letter to the Editor, The Hamilton Spectator Published, June 13, 2018

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Friday April 6, 2018

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Friday April 6, 2018

Federal infrastructure plan behind schedule: PBO

The Parliamentary Budget Officer says federal infrastructure spending created up to 11,000 new jobs over the past year and added 0.1 per cent to Canada’s GDP, falling short of Liberal government projections as the program falls behind schedule.

Parliamentary Budget Officer Jean-Denis Fréchette also cautions that rising interest rates are starting to offset the positive economic effects of infrastructure spending.

The PBO released a report Thursday that examines the impact of what the Liberal government calls its first phase of infrastructure spending. The plan was announced in the 2016 budget and initially promised about $12-billion over five years for projects that are primarily focused on repairs of existing assets. The PBO report looks at how spending from that budget – and top-ups announced in the 2016 fall update – will be spread over nine years, bringing the total to $14.4-billion.

In an interview, Mr. Fréchette said the amount of economic stimulus and employment created from the first phase of spending is relatively modest when compared with the promises made by the Liberals.

Thursday’s PBO report said phase 1 infrastructure spending added 0.1 per cent to Canada’s GDP in the 2016-17 fiscal year and 0.1 per cent in the fiscal year that ends March 31.

The 2016 budget included estimates from the Department of Finance that the announced infrastructure spending would boost Canada’s GDP by 0.2 per cent in the first year and 0.4 per cent in the second year.

That hasn’t happened, Mr. Fréchette notes. (Source: Globe & Mail) 

 

Thursday March 29, 2018

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator (www.mackaycartoons.net) – Thursday March 29, 2018

Ontario Liberals bet big on seniors’ care, drug and dental coverage in 2018 pre-election budget

Ontario’s Liberals will plunge back into the red for at least the next six years to fund an array of big-ticket commitments outlined in the government’s pre-election budget on Wednesday.

August 17, 2016

The Liberals already unveiled a number of priority items in a series of commitments in the run-up to budget day, including major investments in health care, pharmacare and $2.2-billion over three years for free licensed daycare for preschool-aged children.

The primary themes of the 308-page budget were telegraphed in a Throne Speech last week that included the word “care,” or some variation of it, upward of 50 times.  It was clear that the budget would include substantial spending after Finance Minister Charles Sousa admitted the province would return to deficit to pay for it all, after running a $600 million surplus this year.

Despite Premier Kathleen Wynne’s recent flurry of announcements, there were a number of surprises revealed on Wednesday, many of them geared toward the elderly and affordability.

February 26, 2016

The budget includes billions in funding for seniors, including a $750 yearly benefit for those 75 and over who still live at home. The “Healthy Home Program” will cost $1 billion over three years. Another $650 million will go toward boosting the number of visits by caregivers to client’s homes.

For seniors in long-term care facilities, the Liberals plan to spend $300 million over three years to hire a registered nurse in every home in Ontario and provide an average of four hours of personal daily care for each resident by 2022.

The Liberals also plan to introduce a program to help cover costs of pharmaceutical drugs and dental care for Ontarians without workplace benefits, regardless of income or pre-existing OHIP+ coverage. (Source: CBC News) 

Letter to the Editor

Every Ontarian should be afraid

RE: March 29 editorial cartoon, Hamilton Spectator

I have just read a portion of the 2017 Ontario Auditor General’s Report. One excerpt from this document should scare every voter in this province.

In referring to the province’s accounting practices, she says, “As such, they obscure, or will obscure, the true state of the Province’s annual deficits and net debt reported on its consolidated financial statements at a time when Ontario already has the highest subsovereign debt in the world.”

Knowing this, the present government continues to buy our votes with our own tax dollars with no consideration as to how the next generation is going to pay this debt off. I applaud Mr. MacKay’s editorial cartoon. It really tells it like it is.

Ron French, Hamilton

Thursday March 1, 2018

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Thursday March 1, 2018

Canada budget holds fire amid NAFTA clouds, focuses on women

Canada’s Liberal government tackled long-term growth challenges on Tuesday in a budget aimed at boosting women in the workforce and diversifying trade, while keeping its fiscal powder dry in case of an economic shock like the demise of NAFTA.

Finance Minister Bill Morneau’s third budget outlined slight deficit improvements without much in the way of new spending, refusing to blink in the face of U.S. corporate tax cuts and trade uncertainty that strike fear into Canadian companies. 

“We will be vigilant in making sure Canada remains the best place to invest, create jobs and do business – and we will do this in a responsible and careful way, letting evidence, and not emotion, guide our decisions,” Morneau said in a prepared budget speech. 

The budget blueprint, which is bound to be implemented given the Liberal’s parliamentary majority, maintained a C$3 billion ($2.4 billion) fiscal cushion each year to guard against any unexpected event that could hurt the government books. 

Even with the cushion, the projected deficit in 2018-2019 declined to C$18.1 billion from C$18.6 billion forecast in October, a restrained target unlikely to have any impact on financial markets or the Bank of Canada’s rate tightening path.

The loss of NAFTA would sideswipe Canada, which sends 75 percent of exports to the United States, and the decision not to slash corporate tax rates in response to the U.S. move puts Canadian companies at a disadvantage.

The unspoken bet is that Canadian exports will benefit from a roaring U.S. economy, even if business investment is lured away by the U.S. tax cuts. Canadian growth is already leading G7 rivals, spurring three rate hikes by the Bank of Canada since July, and the unemployment rate is near a 40-year low.

The budget did not address concerns that voters could come under pressure as rising rates increase the burden of record household debt, which the central bank has flagged as a risk.

Opposition Conservative leader Andrew Scheer blasted Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals for maintaining budget deficits far into the future and adding to the national debt.(Source: Reuters)