Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Friday March 6, 2020
Biden’s older voters are showing up. Sanders’ young voters aren’t
Super Tuesday was not so super for Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. He lost most of the states up for grabs, and it’s quite possible that he’ll end up with fewer delegates on the evening than chief rival former Vice President Joe Biden.
Sanders’ struggles reflect an inability to connect with older voters, while at the same time failing to generate large youth turnout.
We saw a very familiar age gap across the Super Tuesday states. Sanders crushed it with younger voters. Looking across all the contests with an exit poll, Sanders won an astounding 61% to Biden’s 17% among voters under 30 years old. He even beat Biden by 20 points (43% to 23%) among those between 30 years old and 44 years old.
Sanders, however, struggled mightily with older voters. Biden won by 22 points (42% to 20%) with voters 45 years old to 64 years old. With senior citizens (those 65 years and older), Sanders managed to come in third with 15% (behind Biden’s 48% and former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg’s 19%).
Now you might be tempted to look at those numbers and see that Sanders won those under 45 years old by more than he lost those 45 years and older.
The problem for Sanders is the under 45 group make up a smaller piece of the pie. In no Super Tuesday state with an exit poll did those under 45 years old make up more than 42% of voters. Those under 45 years old were just 35% of the electorate in the median state.
The lack of younger voters in the electorate is, of course, usually the case. Those under 45 years old make up the minority of Democratic primary voters in 2016 as well. Sanders’ theory of the case, though, is his that candidacy can generate youth turnout.
A look at the results on Tuesday night suggests that he failed to do so.
The lack of strong youth turnout didn’t stop Sanders from his big win Nevada earlier this month. Unfortunately for Sanders, he did 4 points, 6 points and 7 points worse on Super Tuesday compared to Nevada among those 18-29 years old, 30-44 years old and 45-64 years old respectively. He actually did 3 points better among seniors on Super Tuesday than in Nevada, but Biden more than compensated for that by doing 19 points better with those 65 years and older.
Indeed, Biden did better in every age category on Tuesday compared to Nevada as he became the clear alternative to Sanders.
Going forward, the math is simple enough for Sanders. He’s either gotta win more votes from those voters who regularly turn out, or he’ll need to bring more young people to the polls. Failure to do so will result in a Biden nomination. (CNN)
The challenges of getting a caricature right. Below, shown using an iPad, captures the struggle I had drawing Bernie Sanders for the March 6, 2020 editorial cartoon. It’s maybe the 6th or 7th time I’ve ever drawn him, and despite he may have reached the final chapter of his political life (post Super Tuesday 2020), I think it’s my best drawing of him.
Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Tuesday February 11, 2020
Addressing a conference of African-American church congregations in this vote-rich city, Pete Buttigieg quoted scripture on Sunday morning and extolled his “Douglass Plan” to combat racial inequities in America, one of several attempts this weekend to confront his strikingly low support among black voters.
But Mr. Buttigieg also undertook a delicate task before the African Methodist Episcopal worshipers. As a gay, married man addressing a denomination that does not allow same-sex marriage rites, he tried to seek common ground over being members of minority groups whose civil rights have come under attack. It was a nod to his sexuality, following the disclosure last week that the Buttigieg campaign held focus groups that found some black voters in South Carolina were uncomfortable with a gay man as president.
“All of us in different ways have been led to question whether we belong,” Mr. Buttigieg told the pews of black worshipers. “And I know what it is to look on the news and see your rights up for debate. All of us must extend a hand to one another. Because I also know what it is to find acceptance where you least expect it.”
As Mr. Buttigieg increasingly presents himself to Democrats as a younger, moderate alternative to former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., he is struggling badly to compete against one of Mr. Biden’s strengths: deep connections to black voters. Nowhere is that problem greater than in South Carolina, which votes fourth in the Democratic nomination fight in February and is the first state where black voters are decisive — a critical test that could be a prologue for primaries in March where African-Americans will also be influential.
A Monmouth University poll of Democratic likely primary voters in South Carolina released last week found Mr. Buttigieg at 3 percent overall, with just 1 percent support from African Americans.
There are many reasons for Mr. Buttigieg’s low standing among black voters, the foremost being that he is little-known to many of them. He is the 37-year-old mayor of South Bend, Ind., who still has a relatively low national profile — including on civil rights and issues of race — and focused much of this year building support among liberals, Democratic donors and voters in the predominantly white states of Iowa and New Hampshire. (NYTimes)
Meanwhile, ahead of the New Hampshire Primary day, Joe Biden Slashes Into Buttigieg: ‘This Guy’s Not a Barack Obama!’. (NYTimes)
Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders fight for the number one position. (The Guardian)
Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Thursday July 28, 2016
Barack Obama to make case for Hillary Clinton, his legacy
President Barack Obama’s three Democratic convention speeches have, in succession, launched his national career, thrust him into the Oval Office and secured him a second term. On Wednesday, he’ll work during his fourth marquee convention address to ensure those earlier efforts weren’t for naught.
In his prime-time pitch for Hillary Clinton, and during a heavy campaign schedule this fall, Obama plans to argue not only for the Democratic nominee, but for the progressive policies that he’s spent the last eight years enacting — an agenda that will depend largely on his successor to maintain.
His message, according to those helping him prepare for the speech: Don’t flush everything away with Donald Trump.
Obama plans to draw on his long and complicated relationship with Clinton, which began as a rivalry but has evolved into what the pair hopes can become the first elected Democrat-to-Democrat presidential transition in modern history.
In pre-convention interviews, Obama has been frank about his relationship with Clinton, admitting they aren’t “bosom buddies.”
“We don’t go vacationing together,” Obama said during a CBS interview Sunday. “I think that I’ve got a pretty clear-eyed sense of both her strengths and her weaknesses. And what I would say would be that this is somebody who knows as much about domestic and foreign policy as anybody.”
“She’s not always flashy. And there are better speech-makers,” he said. “But she knows her stuff.”
Many top Republicans skipped their party’s convention last week, fearing links to Trump. But Democratic convention organizers had a wealth of willing speakers, programming prime-time speeches from high-profile and well-liked Democrats like Obama, Vice President Joe Biden (who also speaks Wednesday), first lady Michelle Obama, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren.
President George W. Bush skipped his party’s 2008 meeting and wasn’t a major presence on the campaign trail for Sen. John McCain. Obama, conversely, is expected to spend most of October on the campaign trail for Clinton, working to encourage the coalition of voters — formed of young people and minorities — to vote this time around.
An ABC News/Washington Post poll this month showed Obama’s approval at 56% — the highest point since early in his first term. (Source: CNN)
Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Wednesday April 27, 2016
Ted Cruz, John Kasich join forces to stop Donald Trump
Ted Cruz and John Kasich are joining forces in a last-ditch effort to deny Donald Trump the Republican presidential nomination.Within minutes of each other, the pair issued statements late Sunday saying they will divide their efforts in upcoming contests with Cruz focusing on Indiana and Kasich devoting his efforts to Oregon and New Mexico. The strategy — something the two campaigns have been working on for weeks — is aimed at blocking Trump from gaining the 1,237 delegates necessary to claim to GOP nomination this summer.
The extraordinary moves reflect the national strength Trump has shown and the inability of Republicans who oppose the New York billionaire to come together to stop him. Dividing up some of the remaining primary states by putting forward one strong alternative to Trump in each could be enough to take away delegates and curb Trump’s run to the nomination.
“This is a nationwide campaign and we’re making a decision where to focus our time, energy and resources,” Cruz told conservative radio host Laura Ingraham on Monday. “We are now focused very, very heavily on the state of Indiana. It is significant that John Kasich is pulling out of Indiana and allowing us to go directly head to head with Donald Trump.”
Kasich said Monday despite the agreement, he still wants Indiana voters to support him.
“They ought to vote for me,” he said during a gaggle with reporters at a Philadelphia diner.
“I’m not campaigning in Indiana and he’s not campaigning in these other states, that’s all. It’s not a big deal,” Kasich said.
Trump is the only candidate who can realistically get a first-ballot victory — there’s no mathematical path for Cruz or Kasich to clinch the nomination heading into the convention. The billionaire is poised for a strong performance Tuesday, when Republicans in Maryland, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Connecticut and Rhode Island head to the polls. (Source: CNN)