Economy

Friday April 30, 2021

April 30, 2021

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Friday April 30, 2021

Cabinet’s ability to award Buy American exemptions ‘strenuously limited,’ Biden says

President Joe Biden set some Canadian pulses racing again Wednesday with more tough Buy American talk, telling Congress he has “strenuously limited” cabinet members from granting exemptions to the 88-year-old protectionist doctrine. 

February 23, 2021

In the same breath, however, the speech marking Biden’s first 100 days as commander-in-chief offered a measure of comfort by suggesting Buy American would not offend the terms of trade deals like the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. 

“American tax dollars are going to be used to buy American products, made in America, to create American jobs. That’s the way it’s supposed to be, and it will be in this administration,” Biden declared. 

The notion of keeping U.S. government spending on American soil, a philosophy that dates back to 1933, will be the “one principle” guiding the $2.2-trillion infrastructure package dubbed the American Jobs Plan, he added. 

“I might note, parenthetically, that does not violate any trade agreement. It’s been the law since the ’30s,” Biden said through sustained applause in the House chamber, where COVID-19 allowed only a relative handful of lawmakers to attend. 

September 17, 2020

“I’ve made it clear to all my cabinet people: their ability to give exemptions has been strenuously limited. It will be American products.”

Much of what Biden said on the subject, including mention of trade agreements and cabinet members, did not appear in the prepared version of his remarks distributed to reporters before the speech. 

And it offered little solace or clarity for Canadian stakeholders still smarting from the punishing steel and aluminum tariffs imposed by Biden’s stridently protectionist predecessor, Donald Trump. 

“Those policies continue to concern us — ‘Made in America’ failed to embrace the integrated nature that we have in the steel business,” said Catherine Cobden, head of the Canadian Steel Producers Association. 

“Protectionism between neighbours and allies hurts everyone. We’re really hopeful that that’s not the way this plays out.”

The picture is likely to become more clear by midsummer, when an internal review of the existing rules — including how domestic content is defined and whether information and communication technology should be covered — is due. (Canadian Press) 

 

Thursday November 5, 2020

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Thursday November 5, 2020

Doug Ford sold on new rating system, health experts not so much

Ontario’s new five-stage rating system for moving regions into and out of various pandemic restrictions is good news, according to many businesses. But it’s bad news according to some health authorities.

May 29, 2020

Perhaps both these things are true and the new system is good for businesses hanging on by their fingernails, and bad for others who think health outcomes are the only things that matters. 

The government is wrestling furiously with finding the right balance between efforts to flatten the curve and ways to help struggling businesses stay alive. It’s possible there is no perfect balance, and no satisfying everyone. 

According to some voices from the business sector, the colour-coded stage (green/good, yellow/less good, orange/worrisome, red/partial lockdown) approach, which also comes with specific measures that accompany each stage, will make stability and predictability possible, something that has not been the case so far. So if things are getting bad and the metrics look like they are moving in the wrong direction, businesses and individuals can step up their response before their region moves to the next stage. Or failing that they can foresee what might be coming rather than being in the dark. 

But on the public health side, there are issues. For one thing, the ceiling has been raised. For example, to take steps like closing restaurants, gyms and bars, the region would need to have a positivity of 10 per cent (100 cases per 100,000 people per week). And other factors, such as the health system and local public health authorities at risk of being overwhelmed, would have to be at play as well.

October 28, 2020

But that rate of infection has only happened a couple of times since the pandemic began. Since testing was ramped up in late spring no region has come close to 10 per cent. Doesn’t this suggest that those sorts of closures wouldn’t happen even under the worst case scenario? Has the government taken lockdowns off the table entirely in favour of protecting the battered economy?

Some health experts seem to think so. Dr. Michael Warner, head of critical care at Michael Garron Hospital in Toronto, put it this way in an interview with Torstar’s Bruce Arthur: “It’s like public health is treading water, and the premier is pushing their heads down. It’s government that makes the decisions on public health, and not public health.”

Epidemiologist Dr. Nitin Mohan told Arthur: “They’re relying on people to understand their own risk threshold, and that’s not working well, and what you’re saying now, we’re going to open up, and the perception is things are safe. Essentially, you’re inviting a disaster.”

Dr. Andrew Morris, professor of infectious diseases at University of Toronto was more pointed. “This is going to be very ugly. We’re following the European approach here. The very first question that should be asked is in the presence of ongoing growth, how can you in any way justify loosening measures? That makes absolutely zero sense. The one thing you shouldn’t do when you’ve got a losing strategy is take on a worse strategy. Which is what they’re going to do.”

These are troubling statements. You don’t expect every health expert to be on exactly the same page, but when credible experts are this far removed from government policy, it sounds like there is a central disconnect. 

Yet we are assured the government is making policy decisions based on public health input from its own advisers. How can the experts advising the government and those quoted in the media and elsewhere be so far apart? Or is the government’s approach being driven by business instead of public health? (Hamilton Spectator Editorial) 

 

Saturday October 31, 2020

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Saturday October 31, 2020

Biden’s Call for ‘National Mask Mandate’ Gains Traction in Public Health Circles

October 10, 2020

As the nation heads into what public health experts are calling a “dark winter” of coronavirus illness and death, public health experts are coalescing around Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s call for a “national mask mandate,” even as they concede such an effort would require much more than the stroke of a presidential pen.

Over the past week, a string of prominent public health experts — notably Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the government’s top infectious disease specialist, and Dr. Scott Gottlieb, a former commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration under President Trump — have said it is time to seriously consider a national mandate to curb the spread of the virus.

Overseas this week, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia became the latest foreign leader to impose a national mandate for citizens to wear masks. Mr. Trump is opposed to a mandate, and Mr. Biden has conceded that a presidential order for all Americans to wear masks would almost certainly face — and most likely fall to — a legal challenge.

March 6, 2020

Mr. Biden, the Democratic presidential nominee, echoed the “dark winter” language during the most recent presidential debate, and he is already using his bully pulpit to promote and reinforce a culture of mask wearing. If elected, he will almost certainly do more.

Mr. Biden has already said that, as president, he would mandate masks on all federal property, an executive order that could have wide reach. He could use his authority under federal transit law to require masks on public transportation. He could also prod governors who are resisting mask mandates to at least require masks in public buildings in their states.

But that is delicate terrain in the United States, where Mr. Trump has turned the act of wearing or not wearing a mask into a political statement. Public health and legal experts say it would be far better for Mr. Biden — or Mr. Trump, for that matter — to use his powers of persuasion to convince Americans that covering one’s face to curb the spread of the virus is a patriotic or civic-minded action.

“Instead of making it about the president’s coercive authority under law it should be about whether the president can support a norm that supports public health, which is in people’s self interest,” said Harold Hongju Koh, a law professor at Yale University and an expert in national security and human rights.

Mr. Trump, however, has shown little interest in supporting such norms. At a rally on Wednesday in Arizona, he mocked California’s mask mandate, saying, “You have to eat through the mask.” (New York Times) 

 

Tuesday September 1, 2020

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Tuesday September 1, 2020

With a New Leader, Conservatives Look to Unseat Justin Trudeau

In keeping with the general upheaval that has marked this year, the Conservative Party of Canada announced its new leader at an unusual time: in the middle of the United States’ presidential nominating conventions.

August 25, 2020

Mr. O’Toole, who is from Ontario, offered shout-outs to Indigenous Canadians, people who are “Black, white, brown or from any race or creed,” union members, L.G.B.T.Q. Canadians and people who “joined the Canadian family five weeks ago or five generations ago.”

During his leadership campaign, he pitched himself as a “true blue,” or hard-right-leaning, Conservative, without being too specific about policies. But his record in politics shows that he’s from the moderate side of his party.

During his debut news conference as leader, Mr. Toole moved to distance himself from the party’s social conservatives on issues like abortion.

January 23, 2020

That tack, Professor Marland said, may prove critical to expanding the party’s support in Eastern Canada and among women.

“I’m absolutely convinced that the Conservative leader is going to have to tackle social issues in a much stronger way than has been the case in the past,” he said. “Historically, this has been a problem for parties of the right.”

The contest to elect a new Conservative leader brought with it speculation that Mr. Trudeau’s government might fall shortly after it starts a new session of Parliament on Sept. 23 with a throne speech.

Regardless, a longer lead time to a vote may benefit Mr. O’Toole and his effort to expand the Conservatives beyond their base. (NYT) 

 

Thursday July 9, 2020

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Thursday July 9, 2020

Highlights of Bill Morneau’s 2020 fiscal ‘snapshot’

November 2, 2016

Finance Minister Bill Morneau has delivered an update on federal spending and economic projections linked to the government’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Morneau is calling today’s statement an “economic and fiscal snapshot” rather than the traditional economic and fiscal statement that comes between budgets.

Morneau was forced to put off his spring budget in March after the devastating economic effects of the pandemic became clearer.

October 19, 2017

The deficit for 2020-21 is expected to rise to $343.2 billion from the $34.4 billion deficit projected before the pandemic. 

A big chunk of that additional deficit can be attributed to the $212 billion in direct support measures the federal government is providing to individuals and businesses.

The snapshot says that, aside from the pandemic program spending, the economic slowdown is estimated to have added another $81.3 billion to the deficit in 2020-21.

March, 1, 2018

The Canadian economy is projected to shrink by 6.8 per cent this year before bouncing back by 5.5 per cent next year, making this crisis the worst economic contraction since the Great Depression. The economy is expected to decline in 2020-21 more than twice as much as it did in 2009-10 in response to the global financial crisis. 

Due to the the financial supports provided by the federal government, the federal debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to rise from 31 per cent in 2019-20 to 49 per cent in 2020-21.

The federal government says it’s getting a better deal on that debt through very low interest rates. “As a consequence of these developments, the government will save over $4 billion in public debt charges in 2020-21 compared to the forecast presented in the 2019 Economic and Fiscal Update in December 2019,” the snapshot said.

COVID-19 Cartoons

Between February and April, 5.5 million Canadians either lost their jobs or saw their work hours significantly reduced.  Those losses pushed the unemployment rate to 13.7 per cent in May — the highest rise on record — from a pre-crisis low of 5.5 per cent in January.

Finance Minister Bill Morneau said that without government pandemic programs, the GDP would have contracted by more than 10 per cent and unemployment would have risen by another 2 per cent. (CBC)