#elxn2019

Saturday October 19, 2019

October 19, 2019

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Saturday October 19, 2019

How the 2019 Federal Election Became a Vote for Nothing

March 12, 2019

The first drinking straw known to archeology was reusable. True story. It is a glamorous gold thing encrusted in blue lapis lazuli, buried in the tomb of a Sumerian queen at Ur in modern Iraq, the reputed birthplace of the patriarch Abraham, but long before his time.

Three millennia later, Canadian Green Party leader Elizabeth May was having a drink from a disposable cup when she was photographed. This was a problem for her 2019 election campaign. To solve it, her party digitally altered the picture to show instead a reusable cup with a metal straw. This indicated May’s ideological rejection of plastic straws, which are no longer a symbol of royal affluence, as in ancient Sumer, but an environmental menace as numerous as the stars in the sky, like Abraham’s descendants. Caught out by a reporter, the party lied about it, and was caught out again.

August 30, 2019

That may seem like nothing to get worked up over, but this was an election where nothing was the whole point.

For a few days, the Greens’ ridiculous self-own and own-goal of a pseudo-scandal was the temporary focus of a general election campaign that never actually found a permanent one. And not for lack of trying.

It could have been otherwise. In Canada, Wednesday, Sept. 11, 2019, was a flurry of high-spirited national activity, quite unlike the solemn day of remembrance and reflection it was in America.

Andrew Scheer, the former Speaker of the House of Commons about to fight his first campaign as Conservative leader, had his morning flight from Ottawa diverted by nasty weather to Quebec City, then carried on to Trois-Rivières, Que., by bus.

September 5, 2019

Jagmeet Singh of the NDP was in London, Ont., where he once studied undergrad biology, and where on this day he observed to his supporters that his Liberal rival Justin Trudeau “is not who he pretends to be.” It was a run of the mill political dig from an underdog about campaign trail idealism and the realities of governance, but it was soon to become a lot more poignant.

For his part, Trudeau had official duties as prime minister in Ottawa, walking up the lane to Rideau Hall to advise Governor General Julie Payette to dissolve Parliament, where his Liberal Party then held a 177-seat majority, compared to 95 Conservative, 39 NDP, and a few others.

Holding hands with his wife Sophie Grégoire Trudeau, he was trying his best to evoke optimistic memories of his cabinet swearing-in day at this same spot all those years ago, when he so wryly told everyone that half his ministers were women because it was 2015.

Not anymore. The National Post’s John Ivison noted that Trudeau’s eyes on this final day of Canada’s 42nd Parliament “radiate broken glass.”

August 20, 2019

At the beginning, the campaign seemed to have a clear focus. Trudeau was saddled with an Ethics Commissioner ruling that his campaign of pressure on former justice minister Jody Wilson-Raybould to cut a deal on corruption charges with SNC-Lavalin was improper. This affair, which led her to resign from cabinet after Trudeau demoted her in a shuffle, tarnished his image with constituencies she represented, both women and Indigenous people.

Contrary to his hair-trigger apology instinct for national crimes, however, Trudeau had been uncharacteristically stubborn in accepting anything resembling blame. He claimed to accept responsibility, but did not apologize, nor admit he did anything wrong. Quite the opposite. His chief of staff Gerald Butts had resigned for his central role in the affair, and to protect Trudeau. As the campaign started, though, Butts was back in the hot seat, running the show.

It was the first clue that, in the campaign of 2019, nothing mattered. Things briefly seemed to matter, until they did not. People would talk about them until the next thing came along, and then that too would fade to irrelevance.

October 18, 2019

By the end, the whole thing would have a carnival feel, all flashing lights and calliope music, with well-dressed grifters barking for attention in what was preposterously promoted as a leaders’ debate. The earnest curiosity of voters about platforms and issues melted away like soft-serve ice cream.

The campaign was at times such a fun-house freak show that the Rhinoceros Party found another guy called Maxime Bernier to run against Maxime Bernier, leader of the upstart alt-right People’s Party of Canada.

It was not that people did not care about political issues, like health care or the economy. It was just that the parties offered so many other things to not care about instead. (Continued: National Post) 

 

Friday October 18, 2019

October 18, 2019

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Friday October 18, 2019

Is the 2019 election Canada’s ‘nastiest’ ever? Not by a long shot

Canada’s electoral history has never been pretty.

Sir John A. Macdonald

In the years immediately before and after Confederation — when votes were carried out by voice at public meetings — the system was crooked by design. The parties frequently purchased loyalties with cash, or with gifts of food, booze or household staples. And they made certain they were getting what they paid for by keeping lists of the bribes and crossing off names.

The necessary funds came from party backers and self-interested corporate titans — people like railway baron Sir Hugh Allan, who was at the centre of the Pacific Scandal that led to the fall of Sir John A. Macdonald’s government in 1873.

“Elections cannot be carried without money,” fumed John H. Cameron, the Conservative MP for Peel, as the House of Commons debated secret ballots in the scandal’s aftermath. “Under an open system of voting, you can readily ascertain whether the voter has deceived you. Under vote by ballot, an elector may take your money and vote as he likes without detection.”

Sir Robert Borden

The abuses continued even after open voting ended. Clergy regularly threatened hellfire from the pulpits, and businesses promised instant unemployment, should parishioners or employees break ranks and vote for the wrong party. Electoral lists were drawn up by government appointees who struck off opposition supporters and retained the names of residents who had moved or died — so that ballot boxes could be stuffed if required.

How bad was it back then? According to Elections Canada, between 1874 and 1896 the courts overturned the results in 134 ridings on the grounds that one party or the other had committed vote fraud.

Changes to the laws on elections and political donations improved the situation. But that didn’t result in campaigns becoming more genteel or evidence-based.

Matthew Hayday, a professor of Canadian history at the University of Guelph, cites a few prime examples of gutter politics. In the 1917 election, Robert Borden’s Unionist government manipulated voting rules, painted anti-conscription Quebecers as traitors and openly accused Liberal Leader Wilfrid Laurier of being in the corner of the German Kaiser.

Kim Campbell

In the 1993 campaign, Kim Campbell’s Conservatives aired their infamous “Think Twice” commercials featuring close-ups of Jean Chrétien’s face — ads that many perceived as mocking the Liberal leader’s partial facial paralysis.

“To me, those campaigns were far worse than anything we’ve seen in this election,” said Hayday.

Richard Johnston is the Canada Research Chair in Public Opinion, Elections and Representation at the University of British Columbia. He said he thinks that this campaign has been “more vituperative” that many recent elections — but negative politics has been the norm in Canada for a long time.

He pointed to the June 1945 federal and Ontario provincial elections, which saw Conservative backers portraying the left wing Co-operative Commonwealth Federation (CCF) — the forerunner of the NDP — as a party of “foreign” ideas, and published pamphlets featuring anti-Semitic caricatures of David Lewis, the CCF’s national secretary.

Paul Martin Jr.

“That would probably be the true low point in Canadian history,” said Johnston.

In fact, upbeat and optimistic campaigns like Jack Layton’s 2011 run, or Justin Trudeau’s 2015 offer of “sunny ways”, are the exceptions in Canadian politics — not the rule.

Paul Martin’s Liberals clung to power in 2004 by going ultra-negative against Stephen Harper’s Tories. The 2011 Conservative win was sullied by the ‘Robocall’ scandal — which saw voters directed to the wrong polling places — and by the attempted ‘swiftboating’ of Jack Layton with a leaked story about an old massage parlour raid.

And it’s worth noting that self-fulfilling prophecies seem to be at play this time around. A year ago, Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer and Trudeau both warned that the 2019 election would be dirty and perhaps “the nastiest one yet.”

To be sure, this campaign has been filled with pointed personal criticism, and things like Trudeau’s blackface scandal and the controversy over Scheer’s dual citizenship have often overshadowed the platforms.

And it’s fair to say that, as the vote approaches, all the parties seem to be doing their best to stoke public fears about their opponents with talk of “secret” plans about hard drugs or abortion, or through third party attack ads and selectively-edited campaign literature.

October 16, 2019

“We are living in a more polarized political climate in Canada,” said Johnston, “and nobody’s hands are clean.”

It’s worth remembering at this point that, just six months ago, the Liberals, Conservatives and NDP all signed on to a global “election integrity” pledge through which they vowed to crack down on the use of social media bots and avoid the dissemination of “falsified, fabricated” disinformation.

The Verdict: False. The 2019 campaign has featured plenty of ugliness, but it is hardly ranks among the “nastiest, dirtiest” elections in Canadian history. Still, as the clock ticks down, there might be new depths to be plumbed. (CBC News) 

 

Thursday October 17, 2019

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Thursday October 17, 2019

Barack Obama tweets endorsement of Justin Trudeau

Former president Barack Obama has tweeted an endorsement of Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau and says he hopes Canadians give Trudeau “another term” in office.

March 11, 2016

“I was proud to work with Justin Trudeau as President,” Obama wrote on Wednesday afternoon. “He’s a hard-working, effective leader who takes on big issues like climate change. The world needs his progressive leadership now, and I hope our neighbors to the north support him for another term.”

The endorsement of a former American president is a rare — and possibly unprecedented — event in Canadian politics. But this is the second time Obama has spoken up to endorse an international leader since he left office. In May of 2017, Obama recorded a video in which he endorsed Emmanuel Macron for the French presidency.

While it remains to be seen what impact, if any, Obama’s endorsement might have on the Canadian electorate, the Liberal party has already touted his tweet to supporters in a fundraising appeal that was sent out on Wednesday afternoon.

March 9, 2016

At a campaign stop in Quebec Wednesday, Trudeau didn’t answer a question about whether he or his team sought out the endorsement, saying only, “I appreciate the kind words and I’m working hard to keep our progress going.”

Asked about the Obama tweet as he campaigned in Montreal, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh said he had a lot of respect for Obama but said “in this respect he’s wrong.”

“Mr. Trudeau has really let down people and consistently chosen to help out the powerful and the wealthy over Canadians,” Singh said, replying “no” when asked whether he thought Obama’s move would hurt the NDP campaign.

Hamilton Spectator Endorsement

Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer was also asked about the endorsement during a campaign stop in Ancaster, Ont.

“I’ve got millions of Canadians like the ones here tonight behind me. I’m not very interested in what former foreign leaders are saying,” Scheer said. “I’m just focused on finishing this election strong and putting together and putting forward my plan to help Canadians get ahead.”

Asked whether he thought Obama’s tweet was appropriate, he said “I’ll let Canadians be the judge of that,” adding he wouldn’t speculate on why Obama made the endorsement. (CBC News) 

Hamilton Spectator Endorsement 

 

Wednesday October 16, 2019

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Wednesday October 16, 2019

From Thanksgiving and Straight into Fear Season

Trudeau digs for NDP, Green votes, issues dire warning about ‘Conservative cuts’

Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau aimed a pitch at NDP and Green voters today, warning darkly that a Conservative government would mean deep spending cuts, a lack of action on climate change and weak support for abortion services — and arguing that voting Liberal is the only way to prevent it.

October 25, 2016

“In terms of the NDP and the Greens, remember this: If you want progressive action, you need a progressive government, not a progressive opposition,” Trudeau said during a campaign stop in Fredericton.

“Voting Liberal is the only way to stop Conservative cuts. Liberals know that the way to grow the economy is by investing in people and we have the record to prove it.”

Questioned by journalists after his statement, Trudeau was asked bluntly if the current Liberal strategy is to drive votes away from the NDP and Greens by whipping up fear among Canadians.

“We have been very positive in the approach that we take and we will remain so,” he said. “I’m looking for a strong mandate to continue to invest in Canadians and I will be sharp in the policy differences between us and the Conservatives.” 

October 7, 2015

Asked about an abortion clinic in Fredericton that’s under threat of closure due to a lack of funding, Trudeau said if he’s re-elected he would meet with New Brunswick’s Progressive Conservative Premier Blaine Higgs to discuss the province’s obligation to fund abortion clinics. He said he would use all the tools at the government’s disposal under the Canada Health Act.

“A Liberal government, a Liberal prime minister, will always stand up to provinces who want to limit women’s rights to choose, something that the Conservatives, particularly under Andrew Scheer, will not do,” he said.

Trudeau also said he is best positioned to push back against Conservative premiers such as Alberta’s Jason Kenney and Ontario’s Doug Ford, “who don’t want to act on climate change.” (CBC)

Conservatives stoke fear of NDP-Liberal coalition as Scheer pushes for majority

Andrew Scheer is raising the spectre of a reckless, tax-and-spend Liberal-NDP coalition government to urge Canadians to hand the Conservatives a majority on Oct. 21.

October 31, 2017

The Conservative leader warned Monday that such a coalition would lead to out-of-control spending, “massive” new taxes and “endless deficits” that would drive away investment and throw thousands of Canadians out of work.

Scheer played the fear card even though Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau refused to contemplate forming a coalition and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh walked back his earlier speculation about joining forces with the Liberals to prevent the Conservatives from forming a minority government.

Scheer pounced on what he portrayed as Trudeau’s failure to rule out a coalition.

“Now, he’s even leaving the door open to coalition government with the NDP in a desperate attempt to cling to power, a coalition that will lead to even higher taxes, less jobs, more deficits and bigger household bills,” Scheer said during a campaign stop in Winnipeg.

“So my message to Canadians is this: only a Conservative majority government can prevent a government with Justin Trudeau as the spokesman but the NDP calling the shots.”

Scheer asserted that Canadians have “a crystal clear choice between a Trudeau-NDP coalition that will raise taxes, run endless deficits and make life more expensive and a Conservative government, a majority government, that will live within its means, lower taxes, put more money back in your pockets.” (CTV) 

 

Saturday October 12, 2019

October 12, 2019

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Saturday October 12, 2019

Odds of a minority government rise, Liberal chances drop as Bloc surges in polls

Who had a Bloc resurgence on their federal election bingo card?

The campaign has seen one bizarre twist after another without any apparent impact on the polls — until now. This latest twist is a little retro. The Bloc Québécois, pronounced all but dead after 2011, has been reanimated and could significantly upend the election plans of the Liberals and Conservatives.

CBC Poll Tracker for October 15, 2019

The CBC Poll Tracker shifted suddenly in its latest update, with the Bloc’s gains in Quebec erasing the solid seat advantage the Liberals enjoyed over the Conservatives.

Since the beginning of this campaign, the Liberals had been favoured to win more seats than the Conservatives, regardless of which party was ahead in the national polling average. This was being driven in part by the party’s enduring edge in Ontario — but it was Quebec that made the difference.

October 10, 2015

Liberal support in Quebec has hovered around the 36 per cent mark the party hit in 2015. Because of the wide gap separating the Liberals from the other parties in Quebec, however, they could count on winning about 50 seats in the province, a net gain of 10 over the last election’s results.

But now, at just under 34 per cent, Liberal support is looking softer in Quebec. The Bloc, meanwhile, has picked up seven points in the last 10 days and has moved into second place in the province, with 27 per cent support.

That has dropped the Liberals into the mid-30s in the seat projection for Quebec, nearly tied with the Bloc Québécois. The Conservatives also have slipped and appear to be on track to win around 10 seats in Quebec, down from the 12 they took in 2015.

There is also now only a 25 per cent chance that either party can win a majority of seats.

The Bloc has been eating into the support of the Liberals, Conservatives and Greens in Quebec, though the seat impact has primarily been felt by the Liberals. That’s because the Conservative base of support in Quebec is concentrated around the Quebec City area, where polls suggest the party still holds a lead.

Not helping matters for the Liberals is the fact that the New Democrats appear to be building up some momentum of their own after a strong performance by NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh in Monday’s English-language debate. After posting poll numbers that would have given them about 15 seats nationwide, they are now projected to win around 24 seats.

So the coming week could prove to be decisive. After nearly five sleepy weeks, voters are wide awake and feeling volatile. Blink and you might miss the next twist. (CBC)