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Friday August 13, 2021

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Friday August 13, 2021

Climate change report a ‘code red’ for humanity

This week’s report from the United Nations climate panel makes for arresting, frightening and depressing reading. 

September 16, 2020

It comes in a summer of record-breaking heat waves that scorched Canada and Europe. It comes after deadly floods ravaged China, Germany and Belgium and as drought threatens 400,000 people in Madagascar with starvation. And it falls with an ominous thud on the world’s doorstep after wildfires incinerated large swaths of the planet, around the Mediterranean Sea, throughout Siberia and right here in North America.

Lest any climate-change deniers still delude themselves into thinking such extreme weather has no connection to what humans are doing, the report from the UN International Panel on Climate Change — it’s the sixth such assessment since 1988 and took eight years to prepare — sets the record straight. What they’ve written isn’t science fiction; it’s science fact that draws on the work of 234 experts.

Human activity is “unequivocally” changing the Earth’s climate in ways “unprecedented” in thousands, even hundreds of thousands of years and is directly linked to these and other extreme weather events. Period. Many of these changes, including higher sea levels, are now “irreversible” the climate scientists said.

September 24, 2019

As a result, after the decade from 2011 to 2020 proved the hottest ever recorded, temperatures are likely to rise in the next 20 years by more than 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels. If that happens, not only will it blow away the climate-change goals set by the 2015 Paris Agreement, it will usher in even more extreme weather and devastation.

Yes, this makes for a depressing read. But rather than make people despair and feel like giving up, the message of this report also includes hope. There’s the hope of humans working together as never before to limit the damage they’re inflicting on the planet. There’s the hope that, while not escaping unscathed, humankind will be able to avoid the absolute worst-case scenarios for climate change. And, aside from the report itself, there are hopeful signs more and more people are finally ready to do what is necessary. 

American President Joe Biden is far more committed than his predecessor, Donald Trump, ever was in marshalling the energies of the world’s biggest economy and second-largest source of greenhouse gas emissions against global warming. That alone could be a game-changer. In October, the United Kingdom will host the governments of 197 countries at the 26th UN Climate Change Conference in Glasgow. This week’s IPCC report should spur them to come together by acting together for everyone’s sake.

4 Waves Cartoon

And if Canadians, as expected, go to the polls in a general election this fall, they have a timely opportunity to elect a government that will redouble the nation’s efforts to keep the planet from overheating. As a rich country, we have a moral responsibility to do this, and accept our role in shepherding the world to a sustainable future, even as we realize we will have to alter our lifestyles and an economy heavily reliant on the petroleum industry.

In the words of UN secretary general Antonio Guterres, this week’s landmark IPCC study amounts to a “code red for humanity.” Now it’s up to Canadians and the rest of humankind to decide if they’ll answer or ignore the alarm. To be sure, we’ll have to live with many of the terrible, wrenching changes we have wrought. But if humanity grabs the nettle in front of it, it could mitigate the impact of climate change and even avoid a world where entire regions become uninhabitable for us. 

We have a decade or so to do this, the UN scientists warn. There probably won’t be another report from the International Panel on Climate Change before the time for effective change runs out. (Hamilton Spectator Editorial)

 

Friday July 23, 2021

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Friday July 23, 2021

If Justin Trudeau doesn’t win a majority in the next election, Jagmeet Singh may be the reason

Some polls have Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole doing poorly, others have him doing worse. But all agree on one thing: NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is in a political sweet spot.

June 24, 2021

If Justin Trudeau fails to win a majority government in an election that could be called as early as next month, it might not be Mr. O’Toole who brings the Liberal leader up short – it might be Mr. Singh.

Leger and Angus Reid have the Conservatives narrowly trailing the Liberals, while Ipsos and Abacus have the Liberals far ahead.

Canadians believe their governments have, on the whole, managed the COVID-19 pandemic reasonably well, and over the course of that pandemic have rewarded incumbent governments of all stripes with re-election.

The similarities between the COVID-19 pandemic and the Second World War appear strong. Both were traumatic and transformative. As society emerged from crisis, people looked to governments to build a strong recovery. People today are also worried about what appears to be the accelerating impact of climate change. Systemic racism and Indigenous reconciliation are important issues.

The Conservatives have offered no clear plan for how they would have handled the pandemic – and will handle the recovery – differently. They are not a party associated with fighting climate change, combating racism or improving Indigenous relations. We do not live in Conservative times.

March 2, 2021

But Mr. Trudeau is not a terribly popular prime minister. A recent Abacus poll has about an equal number of people saying they have a positive or negative impression of him, and Mr. O’Toole is quite unpopular. The only national party leader with a positive approval rating is Mr. Singh.

All recent polls have the NDP sitting at around 20 per cent, well above the 16 per cent they garnered in the 2019 election. If that number holds, the NDP should pick up seats: in B.C.’s Lower Mainland, in Toronto, elsewhere in Ontario, maybe here and there in the Prairies.

Here’s something else: The accessible voter pool – those who might consider voting for a political party – is now higher for the NDP (48 per cent) than for the Conservatives (41 per cent).

That doesn’t mean there is going to be some Orange Crush, in which the NDP smashes through in B.C. and Ontario, scattering Liberal MPs and sending the Conservatives into third place, which the NDP under Jack Layton did to the Bloc and Liberals in 2011 in Quebec. But the NDP popular vote, combined with its accessible voter pool and Mr. Singh’s popularity, suggests the likelihood of gains.

September 10, 2019

This shouldn’t be all that surprising. In the 2019 election, Mr. Singh was unknown, he was out of his depth and the party was practically bankrupt. Today the NDP has paid off its debt and will be able to finance a respectable national campaign. Mr. Singh is a better-known, more confident and more experienced leader. (Globe & Mail) 

Meanwhile, the Green Party and its associated fund are taking their battle with party leader Annamie Paul to court — ending a tentative truce between Paul and party executives just as a federal election call is expected within weeks.

June 18, 2021

The conflict between Paul and her party hit a crisis point in May when, during an escalation of violence in the Middle East, Paul issued a statement calling for a de-escalation and a return to dialogue.

Fredericton MP Jenica Atwin, who left the Green Party for the Liberals in June, called the statement “totally inadequate.” Her departure left the Greens with just two MPs. (CBC) 

 

Thursday November 19, 2020

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Thursday November 19, 2020

The province is dodging the truth on COVID-19 in long-term care

On Monday, Ontario’s long-term-care minister, Merrilee Fullerton, assured Ontarians that in spite of COVID-19 spreading through long-term-care homes, they’re actually doing better than they did in the first wave of this pandemic.

June 17, 2020

Speaking at Queen’s Park, the minister summed up: “There’s no doubt that lessons have been learned from the first wave and the data shows our homes are doing much, much better.”

Really? On Tuesday, 26 of 32 new COVID-19 deaths were in care homes. The province says 678 nursing home residents have the virus. And 100 of the province’s 626 care homes have outbreaks. 

Does that sound like “much, much better” to you? It doesn’t to us, either. And it doesn’t to many health experts. 

Health experts like Dr. Amit Arya of McMaster University, who described the first wave in long-term care as “a horror movie” and who says now: “We really have not done anything close to what we should have done to prepare for the second wave.”

Natalie Mehra, executive director of the Ontario Health Coalition, agrees. She has said in media reports: “It’s devastating … The numbers right now are just exploding.” She also says “we’re shaping up to have a worse second wave.”

Indeed, according to Doris Grinspun, CEO of the Registered Nurses’ Association of Ontario: “The number of residents with COVID is increasing, the number of staff with COVID is increasing and the number of residents who die is increasing. How can anyone sleep well at night with that?”

May 27, 2020

It’s a good question. Notwithstanding Minister Fullerton’s claims to the contrary, it doesn’t seem as if Ontario’s retirement home care system is in a better place than it was during the first wave. It’s clear that the Ford government is concerned and has been trying to put improvements and protections in place, but the reality is that it started too late, and it had repeated warnings during and after the first wave.

The Registered Nurses’ Association, for example, asked the government to make investments in staffing with registered nurses, nurse practitioners, registered practical nurses and personal support workers in homes across Ontario. The government didn’t act. And so when the second wave hit, staffing levels were already at or below operative minimum, and that was before staff began to get sick and be absent. 

The government’s own LTC commission, in its interim report on fixing the system, released a series of recommendations urgently calling for action on things like staffing levels and compensation. Fullerton said her department was “carefully reviewing” the recommendations. 

July 17, 2020

This is all happening at the same time as a Toronto Star investigation revealsprivate LTC operation is such a lucrative business opportunity, private equity funds are being set up to cash in on the potential. That’s not surprising given the shortage of beds that continues to exist and our aging population. 

But keep in mind this is specifically about private, for-profit LTC operations. In Ontario, for-profit homes account for a little more than half of the province’s long-term-care beds. But they also accounted for 70 per cent of COVID deaths in the first wave of the pandemic. According to a Star analysis, so far in the second wave for-profit homes have just under 80 per cent of the deaths.

So if you’re a wealthy investor, there’s money to be made in for-profit long-term care. What is less clear is whether the for-profit model, where the bottom line is always going to competing for the top priority, even over resident care, has a place in the long-term-care system. That the government isn’t even considering that is troubling. (Hamilton Spectator Editorial)

Tuesday November 3, 2020

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Tuesday November 3, 2020

Canadians await U.S. election in fear, as poll reveals anxieties about aftermath

Canadians absorbed the first trickle of results Tuesday as their American neighbours went to the polls, capping a campaign marked by voter intimidation, threats of postelection violence, and concern about the potential breakdown of democracy itself.

November 6, 2012

The first returns showed U.S. President Donald Trump ahead, as expected, in Indiana and winning Kentucky, while an early see-saw for the crucial state of Florida was underway. But it was going to be a long night that would likely not produce a definitive result, said Mark Feigenbaum, the Toronto tax lawyer who is the chairman of Republicans Overseas Canada.

“It’s really encouraging that a lot of people are out voting. Whomever they’re voting for, I think it’s good,” he said.

Bessma Momani, an international affairs specialist at the University of Waterloo, said it was too early to draw any definitive conclusions.

“People are just projecting their own hopes,” she said.

November 11, 2016

“The early voting is pretty spectacular. From the academic side of this, usually early voting does not indicate a vote for the incumbent.”

Earlier Tuesday, a new poll from Leger and the Association for Canadian Studies found a clear majority of Canadians surveyed worried that the United States will suffer a breakdown of its system marked by “social chaos” if no clear winner emerges.

That fear was driven by the assumption that Trump won’t accept defeat if he does in fact lose, or may prematurely declare victory on election night before all votes, including mail-in ballots, can be legally counted.

The Leger poll found that three-quarters of those surveyed in Canada are worried about the U.S. election, and 68 per cent worry that there will be a “complete breakdown of the political system in the U.S. leading to a period of social chaos.”

Four out of five respondents said they were concerned that increased racial tension would lead to protests and violence. (CTV News) 

 

Wednesday September 16, 2020

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Wednesday September 16, 2020

Wildfires and weather extremes: It’s not coincidence, it’s climate change

Right on the heels of arguably the West Coast’s most intense heat wave in modern history comes the most ferocious flare-up of catastrophic wildfires in recent memory. Meanwhile, just a few hundred miles east, a 60-degree temperature drop over just 18 hours in Wyoming and Colorado was accompanied by an extremely rare late-summer dumping of up to 2 feet of snow.

July 14, 2020

It’s not coincidence, it’s climate change. 

These kinds of dystopian weather events, happening often at the same time, are exactly what scientists have been warning about for decades. While extreme weather is a part of the natural cycle, the recent uptick in the ferocity and frequency of these extremes, scientists say, is evidence of an acceleration of climate impacts, some of which were underestimated by climate computer models.

“This is yet another example of where uncertainty is not our friend,” says Michael Mann, distinguished professor of atmospheric science at Penn State. “As we learn more, we are finding that many climate change impacts, including these sorts of extreme weather events, are playing out faster and with greater magnitude than our models predicted.”

July 21, 2020

On Wednesday NOAA released its latest State of the Climate Report, which finds that just during the month of August the U.S. was hit by four different billion-dollar disasters: two hurricanes, huge wildfires and an extraordinary Midwest derecho.

Just one such extreme event can strain emergency resources — a situation West Coast firefighters find themselves in now. However, in two dramatic cases this summer, the nation was hit simultaneously with concurrent catastrophes, some of which had no precedent in modern history. It’s a concept scientists call compound events, and it is necessary to factor these confluences into future projections to properly estimate risk, response and resources.

In mid-August the West suffered through an extended heat wave which saw Death Valley surge to 130 degrees, the hottest temperature ever reliably measured on Earth. The tinderbox conditions caused by the heat, along with a rare lightning outbreak, sparked the first round of major wildfires in California this season, escalating into three of the four largest fires in state history. At about the same time a powerful derecho caused billions of dollars in damage in Iowa and Illinois, and Hurricane Laura plowed into the Gulf Coast of Louisiana as a Category 4 with 150 mph winds and 16 feet of storm surge. (Continued: CBS News)