
Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Thursday October 17, 2024
Link to the animated clip.
A Trump Tariff Surge Would Be Devastating for Canada

June 1, 2018
With Americans heading to the polls in under three weeks, the possibility of Donald Trump returning to the White House has Canadians justifiably on edge. His record on tariffs, coupled with renewed threats of sweeping trade barriers, points to an economic catastrophe waiting to unfold for Canada. Trump’s love affair with tariffs—declaring it his “favourite word” and promising levies of up to 20%, with some as high as 200%—signals a dangerous path for Canada’s industries and its broader economic relationship with the U.S.
During Trump’s first term, Canadians felt the impact of his trade policies. Steel and aluminum tariffs imposed under dubious national security pretences strained bilateral relations and cost Canadian exporters dearly. Trump’s obsession with tariffs, despite repeated warnings from economists about inflation and job losses, demonstrates a fundamental misunderstanding of how global trade works.
News: Trump vows to impose tariffs as experts warn of price hikes and angry allies

June 22, 2019
His latest proposals are even more extreme. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has warned that blanket tariffs could spark a global trade war, with Canadian oil, gas, and auto sectors bearing the brunt of the fallout. The Canadian Chamber of Commerce projects a $45 billion hit to Canada’s economy if Trump’s tariff plan materializes—equivalent to a loss of more than $1,100 for every Canadian. Entire industries could be thrown into chaos, with auto exports expected to drop 20% and energy exports shrinking by over 40%
Meanwhile, Trump’s rhetoric dismisses these economic realities, instead clinging to the notion that tariffs will magically bring factories back to U.S. soil. But his record tells a different story. In Springfield, Ohio, factories opened but struggled to find American workers, requiring legal immigrants to fill the gaps. Similarly, higher consumer prices resulted from his tariffs on household goods during his first presidency without spurring the domestic production boom he envisioned.

June 13, 2018
The situation grows even more perilous with the USMCA trade pact—renegotiated by Trump in 2018—up for review in 2026. Trump’s statements suggest he’s gearing up to demand tougher terms, adding more restrictions that could suffocate Canadian industries. Auto manufacturers may continue to pay tariffs to import parts from Mexico rather than adjust to the expensive North American content rules Trump imposed under the USMCA, undermining its intended benefits. Trump’s proposals also show no intention of sparing allies, lumping Canada in with the “enemies” of American industry and threatening tariffs across the board.
If Trump follows through, Canada faces severe challenges. The dairy industry could come under pressure as Trump revisits supply management policies, while Canada’s Digital Services Tax targeting U.S. tech giants may trigger retaliatory action. A reopened USMCA negotiation could unravel key provisions or, worse, lead to its collapse—plunging North American trade into uncertainty and dragging down economies across the continent.
Analysis: Tariffs, trade and tax credits: What the U.S. election could mean for Canada’s economy

November 18, 2021
To be sure, Kamala Harris’s platform isn’t entirely reassuring. Her continuation of Biden’s subsidy-heavy policies would require Canada to compete in funding industries like electric vehicles—a burden Ottawa is struggling to bear. However, Trump’s return would not just pit Canada against the U.S. financially—it could obliterate the framework of cooperation altogether. Trump’s chaotic, unpredictable style, marked by impulsive tariffs and disregard for allies, means Canada would constantly be in damage-control mode, scrambling to react to unilateral decisions that undercut trust and economic stability.
While some Canadians hold out hope that a potential change in Canada’s leadership might soften Trump’s stance, that is a dangerous gamble. His campaign and allies are already preparing policies that could be enforced without congressional oversight, using obscure legal mechanisms like Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930. Even if Trump’s actions are eventually struck down in court, the uncertainty and disruption would cause long-term harm to industries on both sides of the border.
News: Canadian support for Donald Trump higher than in last U.S. presidential election, poll finds

February 13, 2024
Ultimately, a second Trump presidency would mark a dangerous regression in North American trade. The promised tariffs would harm Canadian exporters, drive up consumer prices in the U.S., and undermine years of economic cooperation. Canada must prepare for the worst—but it’s in the hands of American voters to avoid this path altogether. A vote for Trump is a vote for higher prices, economic isolation, and shattered alliances, with Canada caught in the crossfire. The stakes couldn’t be higher.
Canadians need to brace for the impact—but we also hope our neighbours to the south make the right decision. A tariff war would leave both nations poorer, angrier, and less connected. And Canada, despite its strong economic ties, might not be able to withstand the full brunt of a reckless Trump trade policy this time around.