Francois Legault

Saturday September 18, 2021

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Saturday September 18, 2021

This was no ordinary election campaign, but perhaps not ‘important’

If the polls are to be believed, we have all just wasted five weeks of our lives. An election that, in law, should never have been called, the reason for which has never been adequately explained, limped through a listless campaign on track to producing a Parliament remarkably like the one it was supposed to replace. The “most important election since 1945,” according to Justin Trudeau, might as well never have happened.

September 1, 2021

Compare the most recent polls (at time of writing) to those taken at the same stage of the previous campaign. The similarity is striking: The Liberals and Conservatives are again in the low 30s, with the NDP at around 19 and the Bloc at a little over six. The seat projections, likewise, look eerily familiar: The Liberals are projected to win about 150 seats, the Conservatives about 120, the NDP and the Bloc about 30 each. Only on the margins has there been much change: the Greens have lost half of their support, while the People’s Party of Canada have tripled theirs.

But. Well, there are lots of buts. National polls mean little: to really get an idea of what’s going on, you have to drill down into the regional figures. Polls are snapshots, not predictions: Much could change in the last days of the campaign. And the polls are often wrong. Turnout is an especially difficult thing to model: Are Conservative voters more motivated than Liberal? Will NDP voters show up? Are PPC supporters so angry they will crawl over the proverbial broken glass to vote, or so alienated that they will not bother?

July 9, 2021

So much for where we are – how did we get here? At the start of the campaign, each of the party leaders faced their own personal and strategic challenges. For Mr. Trudeau, the personal challenge was his faded popular appeal: Once the Liberal Party’s most significant asset, he had become its most significant liability, under the accumulated weight of broken promises, ethical lapses and sundry other controversies. The party led all polls going into the election, some by double digits. But the leader trailed the party.

The strategic challenge, as for any Liberal leader, was to win the “progressive primary.” A substantial majority of Canadians might be described as left of centre. But their vote is divided among several parties, with no enduring loyalty to any of them. In 2015, many of those voters were drawn to the Liberal side by a youthful, charismatic leader and a positive vision of change; in 2021, they would have to be frightened into it, as the party best placed to avert the dread prospect of a Conservative government.

August 25, 2020

For Erin O’Toole, personal unpopularity also presented a challenge: His precampaign approval numbers were even worse than Mr. Trudeau’s. A year into the job as Conservative Party Leader, people still did not know much about him, but what they did know they didn’t much like.

His strategic challenge: Conservative support has a high floor and a low ceiling. Where Liberal support can range anywhere from 20 per cent to 50 per cent, the Conservatives can reliably count on winning at least 30 per cent of the vote, but have difficulty getting beyond 37 per cent or 38 per cent. Only once in the past eight elections, in 2011, have they managed it.

January 22, 2021

To remedy that, Mr. O’Toole needed to shift the Conservatives from an angry, grievance-based party, more concerned with turning out its existing supporters than reaching out to new ones, into one that could attract centrist voters. The aim was not just to expand the Conservative vote, but to distribute it more efficiently: fewer votes wasted racking up huge majorities in the West, more going to win those tight races in suburban Ontario and Quebec.

That meant presenting the Conservatives as a safe, inoffensive choice, largely indistinguishable from the Liberals ideologically, but with a less polarizing leader. (In Quebec, where votes divide on different lines, it meant pitching the Tories as a more pragmatic version of the Bloc: nearly as nationalistic, but with more ability to “deliver the goods.”)

October 18, 2019

The catch: people might believe that about Mr. O’Toole. But would they believe it about his party? For Mr. O’Toole, in short, the problem was his base; for Mr. Trudeau, it was him. (Continued: Andrew Coyne, The Globe & Mail)

Drawing the Federal Leaders



 

Thursday October 8, 2020

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Thursday October 8, 2020

Ontario’s conflicting public health messages are dangerous

May 29, 2020

If Premier Doug Ford’s objective is to sow confusion and uncertainty about Thanksgiving and this pandemic, this week he is succeeding spectacularly.

On Tuesday, Ford spoke at a COVID-19 news briefing, and sounded positively muddled. 

“Please, this is very simple,” he said. “There’s rules and there’s guidelines. The rules are very clear. Ten indoors, 25 outdoors. I would really, really discourage people from having 25 people, even if it’s outdoors. Stick within 10 people. And folks, we went through so much together. And we can get through this.”

Clear as mud? Now add to the mix that public health authorities, including Ontario’s Associate Medical Officer of Health Dr. Barbara Yaffe and Toronto Medical Officer of Health Dr. Eileen de Villa are urging people to celebrate Thanksgiving only with members of their immediate household.

Here’s de Villa: “Please do not hold a big Thanksgiving dinner. Please limit your Thanksgiving dinner to the people you live with. I would far rather that we change Thanksgiving one time for safety sake then look back at Thanksgiving 2020 with enormous regret.”

September 26, 2020

Now back to Ford: “Thanksgiving is going to make or break it. Just please hang in there. You know, I have a big family and I told Karla (Ford’s wife), and she knows this, we can have no more than 10. Simple as that.”

These conflicting messages are a lot of things, but simple they are not.

For the record, the official advice at this point is to mark Thanksgiving only with people in your immediate household. Anyone outside that should connect virtually, not in person. Ford has now revised his position and agrees with that.

Aside from anything else, these duelling positions point out an alarming and widening gulf between what public health experts think should be happening and what the government is willing to do. Toronto’s de Villa wants indoor dining and bars in that city shut down for 28 days, but Ford says the data doesn’t warrant doing that. 

July 17, 2020

The Ontario Hospital Association is warning that the health system could quickly become overwhelmed by the second wave. Anthony Dale, the association’s CEO says: “There is enormous growing risk. To keep hospitals functioning like they are now, rolling on all cylinders, we need to stop the community spread of COVID-19. Much more effective public health measures are needed.”

It is fair to note that the government needs to worry about the entire picture, not just the public health aspect. The economic and social impact of even localized lockdowns, like what de Villa is proposing for Toronto and others are suggesting for all hot spots, would be huge. Many businesses, especially in the hospitality sector, have said they cannot survive another lockdown.

But consider this: Ford also said this week that Ontario is flattening the curve. Numerous health experts disagree. University of Toronto epidemiologist Dr. David Fisman says: “There is no indication we are flattening the curve, and indeed hospitalizations are up sharply over the past two weeks, as the premier should know.”

If the government is acting on advice that suggests we are flattening the curve, but more and more health experts say that is not the case, there is a real danger that Ford’s reluctance to do more could be contrary to the public interest. The results of that disconnect could be tragic. (Hamilton Spectator Editorial) 

 

Friday July 19, 2019

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Friday July 19, 2019

Chastising Trump isn’t Justin Trudeau’s job. Leave that to the American voters

In his strangely phrased denunciation of the Nixonian “America: Love it or Leave It” vulgarity that U.S. President Donald Trump customized last Sunday in the style of a racist jibe, it would be unfair to say that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was dangerously foolish, or ill-advised, or even that he made a deliberate decision to strike out into the howling wilderness of American politics on Monday.

A kind of etiquette is involved in this, and there is a heightened expectation that one should express one’s disgust with the boorish American president, particularly, at any time that an occasion to do so presents itself. So it was a banality that Trudeau was questioned on the subject, and after all, it was only in response to a reporter’s question that Trudeau addressed the matter in the first place.

June 22, 2018

And even then, Trudeau did so with a 10-foot pole, but not before expressing confidence that the entire world should be sufficiently familiar by now with the purity of his state of mind that what he thought should go without saying. “Canadians, and indeed people around the world, know exactly what I think about those particular comments,” Trudeau said. Well, okay then. “That is not how we do things in Canada. A Canadian is a Canadian is a Canadian, and the diversity of our country is actually one of our greatest strengths and a source of tremendous resilience and pride for Canadians and we will continue to defend that.”

It does Trump no harm to have somebody like Trudeau coming out of nowhere to weigh in on behalf of the four Congresswomen, or at least to give that impression. The same goes for the similarly pro-multiculturalism New Zealand prime minister Jacinda Ardern, who also expressed revulsion with Trump’s utterances. The criticisms Trump’s tweeting elicited from outgoing British Prime Minister Theresa May, and from the clownish Boris Johnson, who is a hair’s breadth away from replacing May as Conservative Party leader, are just as unhelpful. Trumpism bears little resemblance to traditional Republican conservatism. That legacy is all but spent, so who cares what British Tories think?

October 18, 2016

To understand what Trump said, which was to the effect that certain novice Congress Democrats who are neither white nor male should “go back and help fix the totally broken and crime infested places from which they came,” it is necessary to know something about who his remarks were directed at. They are the pugnacious and notably leftish rising stars Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ayanna Pressley, Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib. All but Omar, who arrived in the United States as a child refugee from Somalia, are American-born. But that’s almost beside the point.

July 12, 2019

But just as Omar’s virtues may not be quite as impeccable as they appear, Trudeau’s virtues don’t always hold up under close scrutiny, either. Responding to Trump’s cunningly devised attack on the Squad by claiming it’s “not how we do things in Canada,” and that a “Canadian is a Canadian is a Canadian,” is hard to square with Trudeau’s near silence on the recently-adopted Quebec law, aimed almost entirely at Muslim women who wear hijabs and niqabs. Because she covers her head as her religious piety requires, Ilhan Omar would be prohibited from teaching public school in Quebec. So that, too, is “how we do things in Canada.”

January 16, 2019

Trudeau is already too susceptible to basking in the flattery that well-to-do American liberals like to shower upon him, and the liberal American style has become so prevalent in Canada that it’s becoming commonplace to imagine that Trudeau is somehow obliged to “speak out” about the gross excesses of the American right at every opportunity.

But that’s not his job. It is up to Americans to get Trump sorted. The United States is a democracy, and on Tuesday, for the first time in a century, the U.S Congress voted an official rebuke of President Trump’s ugly commentary.

For now, that will have to do. (National Post)

A Canadian is a Canadian is a… from r/canadapoliticshumour


 

Friday July 12, 2019

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Friday July 12, 2019

Legault backs Education Minister’s comment, says Malala Yousafzai ‘couldn’t teach’ in Quebec with head scarf

Quebec Premier François Legault says Malala Yousafzai, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate and renowned advocate for girls’ education, would not be allowed to teach in his province unless she removed her head scarf, saying his Education Minister did not make a mistake when he made that assertion.

Jean-François Roberge, Quebec’s Education Minister, faced a barrage of criticism over the weekend that made headlines as far as Britain and the Middle East, after tweeting a picture of himself with Ms. Yousafzai after they met in France, saying that they discussed education and international development.

Mr. Roberge was asked in a Twitter exchange with a journalist named Salim Nadim Valji whether Ms. Yousafzai, who wears an Islamic head scarf, could teach in his province, which has banned religious symbols in the public sector. Mr. Roberge said it would be an honour for Quebec to have Ms. Yousafzai teach, but that in Quebec, “as in France … as well as in other open and tolerant countries, teachers can’t wear religious signs while performing their duties.”

Quebec’s legislature adopted Bill 21 last month, which bans public sector workers – whether they are teachers, judges or police officers – from being able to work if they wear a religious symbol, such as a turban, a head scarf, or a kippa. The Canadian Human Rights Commission said months before the bill became law that it targets people for their religious beliefs and would limit people’s opportunities to participate in society.

October 11, 2014

Ms. Yousafzai was born in the Swat region of Pakistan, where she became an advocate for girls’ education. She was shot in the head by the Taliban at the age of 15 while she was on the bus home from school. She survived the attack and, in 2014, was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for her work in supporting young girls’ right to education.

The activist, now 21, runs the Malala Fund, which raises money to help girls around the world access education. Since 2018, she has been studying philosophy, politics and economics at the University of Oxford.

Mr. Roberge’s response prompted outrage on social media. Liberal MP Omar Alghabra tweeted that, “No government should ever tell a woman how to dress.”

Speaking with reporters in Quebec on Monday, Mr. Legault was asked whether Mr. Roberge made a mistake and the Quebec Premier made it clear that he does not believe he did. (Globe & Mail) 

 

Saturday October 6, 2018

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Saturday October 6, 2018

Canada’s fight against climate change is at risk

With Manitoba’s reversal this week of its plan to impose a carbon tax, it’s clear the federal government’s overall climate plan is in jeopardy. But that’s only part of the story.

Why did Manitoba Premier Brian Pallister ditch years of work to join with other conservatives like Doug Ford and Jason Kenney? Winnipeg Free Press columnist Don Lett puts it this way:

October 25, 2013

‘When you boil it all down, you have this: a premier with a penchant for erratic behaviour who willingly trashes two years of hard work by his own government, with the full knowledge he cannot stop a carbon tax from being implemented and will get all the money anyway.’

In this, Pallister is in good company. Doug Ford killed a working, revenue-generating cap-and-trade plan. Jason Kenney is against a carbon tax even though prominent conservatives, Preston Manning being one, support it. Saskatchewan’s Scott Moe attacks carbon pricing at every opportunity. Ford and Moe are committed to fighting the tax in court, even though legal experts agree the federal government has the right to impose it. Ford is prepared to waste $30 million on an unwinnable fight.

All taxes are unpopular. And it’s always good optics for provincial premiers to be seen as fighting Ottawa.

May 29, 2008

But there’s method in this madness. The premiers know, almost certainly, they can’t win a legal fight. But by pulling out and blaming Ottawa, they get the optics they want. And, they get the revenue from that nasty tax, because the government has pledged that all carbon tax revenue collected will be returned to the provinces it was collected from. Brilliant?

Maybe not. This strategy doesn’t work nearly as well if the Trudeau government imposes the tax and sends the cheques, probably through Revenue Canada, directly back to Canadian citizens, effectively cutting out the provinces. Trudeau takes the bold but necessary step of fighting climate change, but returns a tangible benefit to Canadian taxpayers. Continued: Hamilton Spectator Editorial)