free trade

Thursday January 26, 2017

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Thursday January 26, 2017

Why President Trump might not be the worst for Canada

Yes, the Donald Trump presidency is going to be bad. Yes, it might be a disaster. But it won’t necessarily be a disaster for Canada.

Consider Canada-U.S. trade. President Trump talks like he believes global trade is a form of war, and every day he threatens to start one. Canada is an exceptionally trade-dependent economy, and almost all of our trade is with the United States. Many of our industries have integrated, cross-border production chains. If President Trump wages trade war against any and all imports, Canada is going to suffer catastrophic collateral damage.

But much more likely, as Blackstone CEO and Trump economic adviser Stephen Schwarzman told Canadian government officials on Monday, is that the President will go after countries running big trade surpluses. That means China. It also means Mexico, which Mr. Trump consistently portrays as a stealer of jobs and exporter of illegal aliens. As a result, NAFTA is almost certainly doomed. 

But if NAFTA disappears or is sent into the limbo of renegotiation, the earlier Canada-U.S. free-trade agreement still stands, and still protects much (though not all) of Canada’s trade access. Given that Canada-U.S. trade is relatively balanced – Canada runs a small trade surplus with the U.S. when oil prices are high, and a deficit when they’re low – it’s unlikely that the Trump administration is going to want to make Canada a priority target.

Visibly steamrolling the Mexican economy will be popular with many voters from both parties. Ditto a trade fight with China. But attacking Canada? There’s no economic logic to it. Nor would there be much domestic political upside in starting a trade war with the place Americans consistently call their most admired foreign country.

Bottom line: The end of NAFTA is not a good thing. However, if the Trump administration stops there, it would mean a big hit for Mexico, but a relatively small hit for the Canadian economy. (Source: Globe & Mail) 

 

Saturday December 10, 2016

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator Ð Saturday December 10, 2016 CanadaÕs Liberal Government, Most Provinces Set to Endorse Climate Pact CanadaÕs Liberal government and the bulk of provinces are set to endorse a pact late Friday to fight climate change, even as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau tries to revive the energy sector with the recent approval of two pipeline projects. The climate pact is expected to endorse a federal carbon-pricing scheme unveiled in October and plans to phase out coal-power electricity, and comes as President-elect Donald Trump signals Washington is moving to lessen regulation in a bid to drum up more investment in U.S. resource development. Vice President Joe Biden, in Ottawa as part of a two-day visit the Canadian capital, urged Canadian leaders to carry on with their carbon-reduction efforts because corporate America and the rest of the world are on that very path, despite the policies of the incoming administration. ÒWhatever uncertainty exists around the near term policy choices of the next president, I am absolutely confident the United States will continue making progress in its path to a low-carbon future,Ó Mr. Biden told Mr. Trudeau and provincial premiers. ÒRegardless of whether the next administration is as aggressive as we have been ... there is no way to turn back this tide that has begun to roll.Ó At an official dinner Thursday, Mr. Biden said the world would be counting on Canada and Mr. Trudeau to show leadership on important global issues at this time of uncertainty in Europe and the U.S. Mr. Trudeau has positioned the fight against climate change as one of his governmentÕs signature issues, with the Liberal government aiming to reduce carbon output by 30% below 2005 levels before 2030. Agreement among Ottawa and the provincial capitals fulfills a promise from Mr. Trudeau to build a national consensus on tackling climate change, and marks a pivot from the previous Conservative administration whic

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Saturday December 10, 2016

Canada’s Liberal Government, Most Provinces Set to Endorse Climate Pact

Canada’s Liberal government and the bulk of provinces are set to endorse a pact late Friday to fight climate change, even as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau tries to revive the energy sector with the recent approval of two pipeline projects.

The climate pact is expected to endorse a federal carbon-pricing scheme unveiled in October and plans to phase out coal-power electricity, and comes as President-elect Donald Trump signals Washington is moving to lessen regulation in a bid to drum up more investment in U.S. resource development.

Vice President Joe Biden, in Ottawa as part of a two-day visit the Canadian capital, urged Canadian leaders to carry on with their carbon-reduction efforts because corporate America and the rest of the world are on that very path, despite the policies of the incoming administration.

“Whatever uncertainty exists around the near term policy choices of the next president, I am absolutely confident the United States will continue making progress in its path to a low-carbon future,” Mr. Biden told Mr. Trudeau and provincial premiers. “Regardless of whether the next administration is as aggressive as we have been … there is no way to turn back this tide that has begun to roll.”

At an official dinner Thursday, Mr. Biden said the world would be counting on Canada and Mr. Trudeau to show leadership on important global issues at this time of uncertainty in Europe and the U.S.

Mr. Trudeau has positioned the fight against climate change as one of his government’s signature issues, with the Liberal government aiming to reduce carbon output by 30% below 2005 levels before 2030. Agreement among Ottawa and the provincial capitals fulfills a promise from Mr. Trudeau to build a national consensus on tackling climate change, and marks a pivot from the previous Conservative administration which tended to focus on championing resource development.

Not all Canadian provinces, though, will be onboard. Brad Wall, the premier of Saskatchewan, said he won’t endorse any pan-Canadian climate-change plan that calls for a carbon tax. Under the federal plan, Canada would start pricing carbon pollution at 10 Canadian dollars ($7.58) a metric ton in 2018, and that would rise steadily to C$50 a ton in 2022. (Source: Wall Street Journal)