invasion

Tuesday October 18, 2022

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Tuesday October 18, 2022

Drones Embody an Iran-Russia Alliance Built on Hostility to the U.S.

September 22, 2022

The Iranian-made drones that Russia sent on Monday to divebomb Ukraine’s capital delivered the most emphatic proof yet that Tehran has become a rare, increasingly close ally to the Kremlin, offering both weapons and international support that Russia sorely lacks.

There is no deep love between Russia, newly a pariah for attacking another country, and Iran, for decades one of the most strategically isolated nations in the world. But the two authoritarian governments, both chafing under Western sanctions, share a view of the United States as their great enemy and a threat to their grip on power.

“This is a partnership of convenience between two embattled dictatorships,” said Karim Sadjadpour, an Iran expert at the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Both countries are deep in crisis, struggling economically and politically. Iran is attempting to quell street protests that pose the most serious challenge in years to the government, while Russia is trying to manage rising dissension over a faltering war effort and an unpopular draft.

The emergence of a Moscow-Tehran alliance has multiple international implications, potentially dimming prospects for a new agreement to rein in Iran’s nuclear program and raising the pressure on Israel, Iran’s sworn enemy, to take Ukraine’s side in the war.

The Ayatollah, by Graeme MacKay, c1980

The relationship between Russia and Iran has been developing for years. President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia deployed his air force to Syria starting in 2015 to prevent the collapse of the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, a longtime ally of Tehran. Russia and Iran worked in lock step militarily, with Russian warplanes providing cover for Iranian militiamen and Iranian proxy forces fighting on the ground.

Syria was one example of the effort by both to find ways to sap American strength and prestige wherever they could in the world, and Ukraine provides a similar opportunity on an even larger, more visible scale.

After its 1979 revolution, Iran formulated foreign policy around the slogan “Neither East nor West,” equally wary of the Soviet Union and the United States. Now, the Islamic Republic is choosing sides, analysts said, and images of Iran’s exploding drones accurately hitting their targets advertise it as a regional power to be taken seriously.

In Tehran, the spokesman for the Iranian foreign ministry denied on Monday that his country was selling weapons to Russia, even as social media outlets linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which developed the lumbering yet lethal drones, boasted about them.

“There is no doubt that the drones used by Russia’s military are Iranian,” said a post on Sepah Cyberi, a Telegram channel affiliated with the Guards, while the country’s cyberarmy chief, Ali Akbar Raefipour, gloated on Twitter that Iran’s Shahed drone was now “the most talked about weapon in the world.”

Iran does not want to highlight the weapons sales because Ukraine is generally more popular than Russia among ordinary Iranians, and the Islamic Republic casts itself as a defender of underdogs in world affairs, said Mahmoud Shoori, deputy director of the Institute of Iran and Eurasia Studies in Tehran and an expert on Iran-Russia relations.

But at the same time, “Iran also wants to show the world that it has a military superpower as an ally and it has the capacity to sell weapons to such a power,” he said in a telephone interview. “It shows the West’s policies of maximum pressure to isolate Iran have not worked.” (The New York Times) 

From sketch to finish, see the current way Graeme completes an editorial cartoon using an iPencil, the Procreate app, and a couple of cheats on an iPad Pro …

Wednesday September 28, 2022

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Wednesday September 28, 2022

Kremlin paves way to annexing 4 regions of Ukraine as it announces referendum results

The Kremlin paved the way Tuesday to annex part of Ukraine and escalate the war by announcing that residents of a large swath overwhelmingly supported joining with Russia in stage-managed referendums that the U.S. and its Western allies have dismissed as illegitimate.

May 3, 2022

Pro-Moscow officials said all four occupied regions of Ukraine voted to join Russia. According to Russia-installed election officials, 93 per cent of the ballots cast in the Zaporizhzhia region supported annexation, as did 87 per cent in the Kherson region, 98 per cent in the Luhansk region and 99 per cent in Donetsk.

In a remark that appeared to rule out negotiations, Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelenskyy told the UN Security Council by video from Kyiv that Russia’s attempts to annex Ukrainian territory will mean “there is nothing to talk about with this president of Russia.”

The preordained outcome sets the stage for a dangerous new phase in Russia’s seven-month war, with the Kremlin threatening to throw more troops into the battle and potentially use nuclear weapons.

The referendums in the Luhansk and Kherson regions and parts of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia began Sept. 23, often with armed officials going door to door collecting votes. The ballots asked residents whether they wanted the areas to be incorporated into Russia.

March 4, 2022

Moscow-backed officials in the four occupied regions in southern and Eastern Ukraine said polls closed Tuesday afternoon after five days of voting.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to address Russia’s parliament about the referendums on Friday, and Valentina Matviyenko, who chairs the parliament’s upper house, said lawmakers could consider annexation legislation on Oct. 4.

Meanwhile, Russia ramped up warnings that it could deploy nuclear weapons to defend its territory, including newly acquired lands, and mobilizing more than a quarter-million more troops to deploy to a front line of more than 1,000 kilometres. 

After the balloting, “the situation will radically change from the legal viewpoint, from the point of view of international law, with all the corresponding consequences for protection of those areas and ensuring their security,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Tuesday.

Many Western leaders have called the referendum a sham, and the UN Security Council was scheduled to meet later Tuesday in New York to discuss a resolution that says the voting results will never be accepted and that the four regions remain part of Ukraine. Russia is certain to veto the resolution. (CBC) 

 

Wednesday September 14, 2022

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Wednesday September 14, 2022

Putin’s Kharkiv disaster is his biggest challenge yet

Russian President Vladimir Putin has spent more than two decades carefully cultivating his domestic political image of a strong foreign policy strategist who can outsmart Western leaders and restore Russia to its former glory.

April 12, 2022

But that image has suffered significant damage in the past few days, as a blistering Ukrainian counteroffensive in eastern Ukraine exposed the inadequacies of Moscow’s master plan and forced Russian troops to retreat.

Experts said the Russian collapse in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region represented the biggest challenge of Putin’s career, and that the Kremlin leader was running out of options.

Moscow has tried to spin the hasty withdrawal as “regrouping”, but in a sign of just how badly things look for Russia, the military has been publicly criticized by a number of high-profile Kremlin loyalists including Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, who supplied thousands of fighters to the offensive.

Russia has suffered significant setbacks earlier in the war — for example when it lost its Black Sea fleet flagship Moskva or when it was forced to withdraw from the areas around the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv.

But the current situation could pose a much bigger problem for Putin, Russian political analyst Anton Barbashin said.

March 1, 2022

“The Kyiv withdrawal was framed as a gesture of goodwill, something they’ve had to do to prevent civilian casualties,” he told CNN. “The propaganda component was always focusing on Donbas region as being the top priority, but now that Russian forces are somewhat withdrawing from Kharkiv region and Luhansk region, it would be much more problematic to explain this if Ukraine does in fact, push further and I didn’t see a reason why they wouldn’t.”

The Kremlin on Monday said Putin was aware of the situation on the frontlines, and insisted Russia would achieve all the goals of its “special military operation” — the phrase Moscow is using for its war on Ukraine — to take control of all of Luhansk and Donetsk regions.

But that operation will be made much more difficult by Ukraine’s victories in neighboring Kharkiv. And the setbacks there have ignited criticism and finger pointing among influential Russian military bloggers and personalities in Russian state media.

February 17, 2022

Unusually, even Putin himself has been criticized. On Monday, deputies from 18 municipal districts in Moscow, St. Petersburg and Kolpino called for Putin’s resignation, according to a petition with a list of signatures posted on Twitter.

Experts said Putin would now face growing pressure to respond with force. Influential Russian nationalist and pro-war voices are increasingly calling for radical steps, including full mobilization and ramped up strikes against Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, some even suggesting the use of tactical nuclear weapons.

“Generally there’s a quite open sense of panic among Russian pro-war analysts and voices,” Barbashin said.

The Kremlin has so far rejected the idea of a mass mobilization and Russia watchers believe it is unlikely that Putin would call for one, because he is aware that such a move would likely prove unpopular and would be seen as an admission that the “special military operation” is, in fact, a war.

Putin signed a decree last month to increase the number of military personnel to 1.15 million, adding 137,000 service personnel, but analysts say it will likely become increasingly difficult for Russia to recruit.

The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based analytical group, pointed out on Sunday that some regional authorities have faced criticism for their push to recruit contract servicemen and volunteers to fight in Ukraine.

The full extent of Ukraine’s recent gains — and its ability to hold onto them — is still unclear. But experts say that if the Ukrainian counteroffensive continues at similar pace, Putin will find it increasingly difficult to present himself as a strong strategist. (CTV)

From sketch to finish, see the current way Graeme completes an editorial cartoon using an iPencil, the Procreate app, and a couple of cheats on an iPad Pro …

 

Thursday July 14, 2022

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Thursday July 14, 2022

Canada’s decision on Russian-owned gas turbine equipment is about helping its German NATO ally

There will be no quick victory in the war in Ukraine. After nearly five months of fighting, the loss of thousands of lives and the devastation of some of the country’s largest cities this is the sickening reality. 

April 12, 2022

Despite capturing vast territory, the Russian army that invaded Ukraine without provocation in February has failed to force its opponent to surrender that land. For its part, the Ukrainian military has neither given up resisting the Russians nor succeeded in driving them out.

Just over a week ago, the Russians triumphantly declared they had captured the entire Luhansk region in eastern Ukraine. But on Tuesday, the Ukrainian government announced its forces had carried out a long-range missile strike that hit a Russian ammunition dump and killed 52 Russian soldiers in south Ukraine. More notably, the Ukrainian government said this signalled a counterattack aimed at forcing Putin to abandon the land his soldiers have seized.

And so with these events, the conflict has entered a new phase. This will almost certainly not be a short military adventure for Russia. And there will be no a quick recovery of freedom for brave Ukraine. The pundits who originally predicted it would all be over in weeks were wrong. This is now a long war. It will be an increasingly bitter, brutal war of attrition. It will be fought out over many months. And while it might end when one side or the other is too bloodied and exhausted to go on, it retains the potential of becoming a broader European conflict.

It is essential for the NATO allies — including Canada — who have been supporting Ukraine with the weapons and money it needs to realize all this and act accordingly. There must be no splits in their united front. Of course, sending NATO troops into Ukraine is off the table because that would risk escalating the war beyond Ukraine’s borders. However, there can be no backing off the pledges they have made to help Ukraine keep its independence, preserve its democracy and teach Russian President Vladimir Putin his authoritarian piracy will not prevail in this century.

April 13, 2022

To a degree, Ukraine’s western allies have already adjusted their tactics and strategy. The European Union recently named Ukraine as a candidate for membership. The G7 countries, including Canada, have strengthened sanctions against Russia. At a recent summit in Madrid, the members of NATO decided to reinforce their presence on the alliance’s eastern borders to deter and, if that’s not possible, defend against further Russian invasions. As part of that initiative, Canada agreed to upgrade the NATO battle group it leads in Latvia to a brigade. While the federal government has not said this means more boots on the ground it proves Canada’s commitment to the region, even at some risk to Canadian lives.

The federal government had struggled with another dilemma before deciding this week to return Russian-owned gas turbine equipment to Germany, which would then hand them over to Russia. And this despite Canada’s economic sanctions against Putin. The Ukrainian government understandably objected to an action it said would benefit Russia and its sales of natural gas to countries such as Germany. Yet because of the disruptions in gas shipments caused by the war, Germany faces an energy crisis. It is bizarre that western countries are trying to defeat Russia with economic sanctions and supporting Ukraine even as much of western Europe still relies on Russian gas. But Canada’s controversial decision was primarily about helping its German NATO ally. And that ally will be more dependable in the coming long war if its citizens are not freezing in the dark this winter.

Though Russia has more soldiers and a bigger arsenal than Ukraine, it has suffered devastating losses in both its human and material resources. If this war drags on long enough and continues to punish both the Russian economy and military, perhaps other Russian leaders will rise up and oust Putin. However, Ukraine is suffering too — with as many as 200 of its troops dying in battle every day.

For now, NATO countries should continue raiding their own military stockpiles and arming Ukraine with weapons superior to what the Russians possess. And above all they must reject any peace proposal on Putin’s part that would allow him to dismember Ukraine and continue to occupy the areas he has stolen. This is now a long war. NATO must back Ukraine for the long haul. (Hamilton Spectator Editorial) 

 

Thursday June 16, 2022

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Thursday June 16, 2022

Putin has weaponized food. The global death toll could be staggering

Ukraine has long forged a reputation as the planet’s bread basket.

May 14, 2022

Before being invaded by Russia in February, it exported 4.5 million tonnes of agricultural produce through its ports each month, including 12 per cent of the world’s wheat, 15 per cent of its corn and 50 per cent of its sunflower oil. It’s capable of feeding 400 million people every year, not including its own population.

Not long ago, Ukraine exported up to six million tonnes of grain per month. Today, that figure is only 1.5 million.

The reason: Russia’s naval blockade of Black Sea ports makes it impossible for Ukraine to sell its agricultural products abroad. Meantime, vast swaths of farmland have either been taken over by Russian occupiers or been littered with mines, rendering the land useless. Ukrainian officials now estimate there are 25 million tonnes of grain stuck in storehouses. By September, it’s estimated that tens of millions of tonnes of grain will be entombed inside Ukraine and will likely rot.

“For people around the world, the war, together with the other crises, is threatening to unleash an unprecedented wave of hunger and destitution, leaving social and economic chaos in its wake,” says United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.

April 12, 2022

The UN estimates that the war could move nearly 50 million people in several countries across Africa, Asia and the Middle East into famine or famine-like conditions because of its horrific impact on supply and prices.

And this is all a very calculated act by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Mr. Putin has weaponized food and is now blackmailing the world with it. He has said he would end the Black Sea blockade if the West drops its sanctions. Of course, even as he says this he knows it’s a non-starter. Dropping those sanctions would only help fill Russia’s financial coffers and allow it to move even more aggressively into Ukraine.

Timothy Snyder, a history professor at Yale University, believes Mr. Putin is banking on food shortages to ignite riots in many countries. It could lead to an exodus of starving refugees in the direction of Europe, creating instability and chaos.

This will put even more pressure on the West to drop the sanctions and broker a ceasefire agreement in the name of world peace. At this point, Mr. Putin would likely take whatever territorial gains he’s made in Ukraine and call it a day.

It’s pure evil, but hardly original.

Soviet leader Joseph Stalin manufactured a famine in Ukraine in 1932, in an attempt, some believe, to stamp out a nascent independence movement. Upwards of five million Ukrainians starved to death in an event remembered today as Holodomor, or the Terror Famine. In Ukraine, it is considered a genocide. Adolf Hitler, meantime, had plans to redirect Ukrainian grain for the Soviet Union to Germany in the hopes of starving millions of Soviet citizens. (Continued: The Globe & Mail)