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Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Saturday September 21, 2024 – (Published later in The Toronto Star)

Link to the animated version.

Ford’s Fiscal Claims Face Scrutiny Amid Rising Debt and Misleading Job Numbers

Despite Doug Ford’s Ontario government basking in its own glowing self-assessment, a growing consensus among critics is that the province’s fiscal strategy is far less successful than the premier claims. The government’s financial reports may look impressive at first glance, with near-balanced budgets, no tax hikes, and spending increases in key areas, but a deeper look reveals that many of the promises and claims are inflated, misleading, or based on a selective reading of the numbers. From job creation to debt management, Ford’s fiscal reputation, while politically advantageous, should be taken with a grain of salt.

News: Ontario ends 2023-24 with nearly balanced budget

In the Toronto Star, Martin Regg Cohn highlights one of the more glaring examples of Ford’s economic exaggeration: job creation. Ford frequently touts his government’s success in creating jobs, especially in construction, claiming numbers that don’t match the official statistics. The premier’s boast of “100,000 estimated jobs in construction” falls flat when compared to Statistics Canada’s more modest figure of 26,500 new jobs in the sector since Ford took office. More troubling is the unemployment rate under Ford, which now stands at 7.1%, higher than when Kathleen Wynne left office in 2018 with a rate of 5.6%. This trend is exacerbated in major cities like Toronto and Windsor, where joblessness is even worse.

Opinion: Believe the numbers, not the premier: Doug Ford’s unemployment numbers are worse than when he took over from Kathleen Wynne

The narrative Ford tries to sell—that Ontario is thriving under his leadership—collapses under scrutiny. While it’s true that Ford has inherited some challenges and can’t control all economic factors, such as global recessions or federal interest rate policies, his tendency to take credit in good times and shift blame in bad times rings hollow. Ford’s economic stewardship, as Cohn argues, relies heavily on overstatements, selective data, and a consistent deflection of responsibility.

The Fraser Institute takes a similarly critical stance on Ford’s fiscal management, but through a conservative lens. It highlights that despite modest deficits, the province’s net debt continues to rise, reaching $408 billion in 2023-24—an increase of $8.2 billion in just one year. This accumulation of debt, combined with delayed budget balancing, suggests that Ford’s claim to fiscal prudence is unfounded.

The Fraser Institute: Ford government continues irresponsible fiscal management in Ontario

Even more alarming is Ford’s reliance on hydro subsidies, a hidden cost to the province that has now ballooned to $7.3 billion annually. As Regg Cohn points out, this subsidy is not only unsustainable but also counterproductive, distorting the true cost of electricity and placing an enormous burden on future budgets. Instead of addressing this issue, Ford has chosen to disguise the real cost of electricity from voters and investors, further undermining his claim of responsible fiscal management.

The Toronto Sun’s Brian Lilley, though defending Ford’s spending increases as proof that he’s not cutting services, also acknowledges that Ontario’s spending has risen by 34% since Ford took office, outpacing inflation. While this might be seen as a positive—investment in health care and education has surged—it raises questions about efficiency and missed opportunities. The Fraser Institute criticizes Ford for failing to balance the budget when he could have, especially as higher-than-expected revenues and lower debt interest costs provided room to do so. Instead, Ford increased program spending by $4.6 billion beyond what was planned, losing the chance to either run a surplus or reduce the growing debt burden.

Ford’s fiscal approach increasingly looks like a populist smokescreen, more concerned with short-term political gain than long-term fiscal health. Reader comments on the Toronto Star article amplify this skepticism, pointing out wasteful spending on projects like highway expansions, unnecessary construction, and the cancellation of license plate fees—moves that sound good on paper but come at a steep cost. One commenter laments the lost revenue from the elimination of license plate fees, amounting to $1.1 billion annually, while another highlights Ford’s fixation on populist policies like the expansion of alcohol sales in convenience stores—costing the province up to $1 billion—instead of addressing critical issues like long wait times for cancer treatment.

Ford’s reliance on PR-driven policies, rather than substantive fiscal reform, reflects a broader trend in his government. From the high-profile legal battles over nurse pay raises to the cancellation of renewable energy projects, Ford’s record is riddled with choices that seem more about scoring political points than making sound financial decisions. Critics argue that these decisions are not just costly but counterproductive, diverting funds from more pressing needs like housing and education.

While Doug Ford enjoys high popularity, likely buoyed by his ability to avoid tax hikes and portray himself as a champion of the people, his record on fiscal responsibility is increasingly coming under fire. Ford may be close to balancing the budget, but critics warn that his methods—ballooning debt, hidden subsidies, populist giveaways, and job creation claims that don’t hold up—paint a much less rosy picture of Ontario’s fiscal health.

The consensus among economists, fiscal watchdogs, and even some conservative commentators is clear: take Ford’s fiscal claims with a grain of salt. Ford’s penchant for over-promising and under-delivering when it comes to job creation, debt reduction, and balanced budgets should raise concerns for anyone paying close attention. Ontario’s economy may not be in immediate crisis, but the long-term risks of Ford’s populist approach—ballooning debt, unsustainable subsidies, and mismanagement—could leave the province in a precarious position.

In the end, whether you’re a fiscal conservative, a liberal critic, or a neutral observer, the message is the same: believe the numbers, not the premier’s spin. (AI)