John Tory

The 2018 Ontario Election

May 9, 2018 by Graeme MacKay

The Writ Drops

The coming provincial election promises to be an interesting one. At Queen’s Park, Premier Kathleen Wynne has controlled the levers of an unpopular government since 2013, that, combined with 10 years of Dalton McGuinty’s tenure, adds up to 15 years of rule by Ontario Liberals. The projected net debt is at an all time high of $325 billion (compared with $138 billion when Liberals assumed power in 2003). The debt to GDP ratio is approaching 40%. Hydro costs have ballooned under the Liberals, and despite efforts to tackle emergency ward wait times, hospitals continue to be overcrowded. Falling grades are indicating a decline in Ontario’s education, and transit projects aren’t keeping pace with congested 400 series highways. The combined corruption storms resulting from the McGuinty years regarding gas plant emails, and the Sudbury by-election bribery case haven’t helped matters for the current Liberal leader.

The unpopularity problem

The election results of 2014 clearly showed that voters were intent on forgiving the Liberals for their many misdeeds and confident its new leader Kathleen Wynne would build the trust and good government that had been lost in the dying years of McGuinty’s reign. Ontario voters even rewarded the new leader with a majority victory in 2014, after slapping the previous one down with a slim minority. This is often forgotten in the current #metoo climate when supporters of Kathleen Wynne deal the misogyny and homophobe cards to explain her dreary popularity numbers.

Polls consistently show that voters are done with Kathleen Wynne (ranked as the least popular Premier in Canada), and indeed the Liberal government in Ontario. To answer this, the Liberal Party platform is chock-a-block full of big spending progressive (NDPesque) promises for child care, health care, senior support, and dental and pharmacare. Despite the efforts, the mood among comment boards, call-in shows, and letters to the editor, seem to be very much about “throwing the bums out”. If, at this point the Liberal’s defeat is quite certain, then the question of who wins and by how much remains to be answered.

The numbers problem

Andrea Horwath enters her 3rd provincial election leading the NDP with poll numbers matching the governing Liberals. After attempting to make her party more palatable to centrist and Liberal Party voters in 2014, while outraging the most leftie members in the process, she has steered the party back to its traditional NDP position with campaign promises embracing free dental care, free tuition, and undoing Kathleen Wynne’s privatization of Hydro.

The populism problem

As big spending platforms rule the day on the left with the Liberals and NDP, the Doug Ford PCs are the very opposite. Even with no platform to run on the Tories are banking on poll numbers that are 15% plus above the numbers of either competitor. They are assumed to be the winning player in the game to take power back, to trumpet fiscal prudence, reining in spending, cutting away public services, and doling out incentives to business’ and wealthy folk.

Hastily assuming the leadership of the PCs beset by scandal and malaise under Patrick Brown, Doug Ford seems to have used populist energy to recharge a party lacking confidence in direction. With new leadership comes learning, and based on the amount of sloganeering dished out by Doug Ford, and an increasingly obvious dearth in policy expertise, or even knowledge (i.e.: how a bill becomes law), it’s becoming evident by the day that the presumptive Premier requires a steep learning curve to adequately prepare himself for the top job. It’s merely a matter of time before we find out if Doug Ford just managed to be the right person at the right time, no matter how uninformed he proves himself to be.

At this point there’s no betting on who will be in charge at the pink palace after June 7, 2018. The PCs may now be riding high in the polls, but its leader is just one gaffe away from throwing the party’s support away in the same way John Tory did with faith based schools, or Tim Hudak did with his one million jobs gimmick. What is predictable about the coming 4 weeks are polls that will turn out to be way off reality. Nothing can really forecast how strategic voting will factor on election day, not to mention, the no shows: declining participation of the electorate, which has been dropping with each ballot, and was below 50% in 2014. There’s no predicting the outcome of this election. It really is anyone’s game.

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Wednesday February 1, 2017

January 31, 2017 by Graeme MacKay

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Wednesday February 1, 2017

John Tory ‘encouraged’ by Kathleen Wynne’s words on housing

Toronto Mayor John Tory was sounding somewhat mollified on Monday after meeting with Premier Kathleen Wynne, just days after announcing she’s rejecting the city’s request to put tolls on the Gardiner Expressway and Don Valley Parkway.

Speaking to reporters after the hour-long meeting at Queen’s Park, Wynne hinted at a willingness to boost provincial funding for Toronto’s affordable housing needs.

2007

Tory said he’d pressed the housing issue during the meeting.

“I stressed again, now more than ever, that the province must immediately come to the table to address our city’s social housing crisis,” Tory told a news conference at City Hall on Monday. “I was certainly very firm, again, that we need that help, that some of the most vulnerable people in our city need that help.”

Based on discussions in Ottawa last week, Tory said he is confident the federal government will put “substantial funding” for housing in its upcoming budget. He wants the province to match that money.

In a separate news conference at Queen’s Park, Wynne referred to her “recognition for the need for increased housing support,” but stopped short of promising money.

“We need a three-way partnership on affordable housing — the municipality, the province and the federal government working together as we move into this budget cycle,” she said.

Tory said he was encouraged by Wynne’s message.

“I found that a significant step forward because I’m not sure that I’ve heard those words said before,” Tory said.

Wynne meets Tory on an almost-monthly basis. Monday’s meeting had been scheduled well in advance of last week’s announcement about tolls.

The pair usually hold a photo opportunity inside Wynne’s office as their meeting wraps up, then a joint news conference. This time, the cameras were not allowed inside, the pair shook hands quickly outside Wynne’s door, then Tory departed for City Hall. It created the appearance of a less-chummy-than-normal get-together. (Source: CBC)

Saturday May 9, 2015

May 8, 2015 by Graeme MacKay

Editorial cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Saturday May 9, 2015

Conservative MP Patrick Brown ahead in Tory leadership vote in Hamilton, says party official

As the Progressive Conservative party holds its second vote for its members May 7 on who will be their next leader, in Hamilton, Conservative MP Patrick Brown appears to be in the lead, say party sources.

After the May 3 vote, Brown collected 67 per cent of the votes in all four of Hamilton’s ridings: Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, Ancaster-Flamborough-Dundas-Westdale, Hamilton Mountain, and Hamilton Centre.

Party sources say Brown, who represents Barrie in the House of Commons, is also leading “across the province” after the first ballot over Whitby-Oshawa MPP Christine Elliott.

Brown’s campaign officials stated in a May 3 release they’re “expectations were exceeded” with the “thousands” of people who turned out to vote for Brown.

When asked to comment on Brown’s lead, Elliott’s spokesperson, Marie Prentice referred to Elliott’s statement May 3 referring to the “tens of thousands of Elliott supporters (that) came out to the polls in every riding and put Elliott on the path to victory.”

Elliott cited a recent poll of party members who are eligible to vote revealing 58 per cent of them would vote for her as leader.

Brown’s campaign reported in March that they had sold over 40,000 party memberships, doubling the number of Elliott’s memberships that were sold. Elliott has said she has “wide support” across the province. (Source: Hamilton Spectator)

Tuesday September 30, 2014

September 29, 2014 by Graeme MacKay

By Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Tuesday September 30, 2014

Voters stingy with support in mayoral race

It looks like Hamilton voters are still waiting to be wowed.

A survey of Hamilton voters shows 34 per cent of respondents have yet to park their vote with any mayoral candidate — and another 11 per cent have discounted the perceived frontrunners.

The random phone survey of 839 residents Sept. 25 showed the highest-polling candidate with only 26 per cent support.

“No one wins a mayoral race with 26 per cent of the vote,” said Lorne Bozinoff, president for polling firm Forum Research. “I’m surprised no one is doing better at this stage … It suggests no one has really caught the imagination of voters yet.”

By comparison, outgoing Mayor Bob Bratina won a three-way race in 2010 with about 37 per cent of the vote. Former mayor Fred Eisenberger, leading in the latest poll, won a squeaker in 2006 with 43 per cent of the vote — only a percentage point ahead of Larry Di Ianni.

The latest poll data suggests the race is still open. It also shows interesting trends associated with each of the leading candidates.

Stoney Creek Coun. Brad Clark, who polled 17 per cent support overall, had the highest candidate support in his current ward. The former Tory cabinet minister also received the most support, 29 per cent, among provincial PC voters.

About 65 per cent of his poll supporters said rapid transit is not needed in the city and 29 per cent were aged 65 or older. One in four had previously voted for the outgoing mayor, Bob Bratina.

Ward 1 Coun. Brian McHattie found his best support, 14 per cent, among residents aged 18 to 34. The LRT booster also boasted the highest percentage of supporters who believe rapid transit is necessary, 62 per cent, and polled best in the downtown and Dundas. He is currently in third place with 12 per cent support overall.

Eisenberger polled especially well among young voters, males and renters. Interestingly, the former federal Conservative candidate also scored the most support among provincial NDP voters, at 39 per cent. Bozinoff suggested he had translated past experience and a “centrist” campaign into the early election race lead at 26 per cent.

While respondents were stingy with support, Eisenberger still managed 64 per cent “approval” in the poll. Clark earned 53 per cent approval. McHattie’s rating was split 50-50. (Source: Hamilton Spectator)

Ontario Election Throw-Back: Monday September 10, 2007

May 30, 2014 by Graeme MacKay

By Graeme MacKay, Editorial Cartoonist, The Hamilton Spectator – Monday September 10, 2007

Ontario’s election campaign now underway

They’ve been running all summer. Now comes the 30-day sprint to the finish.

The campaign for the Oct. 10 Ontario election gets underway Monday when Premier Dalton McGuinty visits the lieutenant-governor to formally drop the writ and dissolve the Ontario legislature.

The vote is expected to be a referendum of sorts on McGuinty and the Liberals, with their healthy majority – won in 2003 atop cresting public dissatisfaction with Conservative spending cuts – hanging in the balance.

Chipping away at an apparent Liberal lead are the reborn Progressive Conservatives, who are embracing the “progressive” part of their moniker in an effort to distance themselves from the slash-and-burn days of Mike Harris and Ernie Eves.

The issues and tone expected to shape the campaign were in full evidence Sunday, as Conservative Leader John Tory trashed what he called McGuinty’s record of broken promises and the Liberal leader took aim at a Tory proposal to fund faith-based schools.

The Conservative and Liberal platforms are similar in many ways, with both promising more money for health care and education.

The New Democrats have yet to unveil their platform, but Leader Howard Hampton has made several campaign pledges of his own in recent weeks.

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