Monarchy

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Saturday October 19, 2024

Justin Trudeau Faces Another Final Reckoning — Will He Step Down or Risk Humiliation?

Justin Trudeau, facing mounting internal dissent and dwindling public support, risks holding on to power too long, much like past leaders who failed to step aside in time, with impatient Liberal MPs preparing to force him out before electoral disaster strikes.

In Canadian politics, few events are as consequential as the decision of a long-serving leader to resign or cling to power. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is rapidly approaching such a crossroad. His government is faltering amid foreign interference scandals, internal dissent, low polling, and a rising opposition led by Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. Trudeau, however, seems unwilling to heed the signals, risking a scenario where he could face defeat and drag the Liberal Party down with him.

News: Liberal MPs will present official demand for Trudeau to resign in coming days, sources say

The murmurs of rebellion within the Liberal caucus are no longer whispers but are poised to erupt in the next caucus meeting, scheduled for Wednesday. Several MPs reportedly plan to deliver a letter formally requesting that Trudeau step down, expressing the growing frustration among backbenchers that the Prime Minister’s leadership is now a liability. Party rebellion—one of the most public and organized challenges of his tenure—carries echoes of Jean Chrétien’s 2002 ouster, but with one key difference: Trudeau has no natural successor waiting in the wings.

Political history shows that leaders often prefer to exit on their own terms, sparing themselves the indignity of electoral defeat. Brian Mulroney, faced with a collapsing Progressive Conservative Party, opted to resign before the 1993 election—an election that decimated his party, though not his personal reputation. Similarly, in recent U.S. politics, Joe Biden appeared reluctant to seek a second term before ultimately bowing to political realities, leaving Vice President Kamala Harris to lead the Democrats into the 2024 race.

Trudeau is showing no signs of a similar graceful exit. Reports suggest that foreign policy issues, including tensions with India and fears over the impact of the U.S. election, may be influencing his decision to stay on

Opinion: Foreign crises are getting in the way of the inevitable: Trudeau’s departure

lf Trump returns to power in Washington, Trudeau could argue that his experience makes him uniquely qualified to manage Canada’s position against a renewed wave of American protectionism and geopolitical instability. Yet this logic may not resonate with his colleagues or voters, many of whom are disillusioned by the government’s domestic failures.

The public display of frustration from MPs such as Wayne Long, Alexandra Mendès, and Sean Casey indicates that this rebellion is not merely a passing grumble but a significant threat to Trudeau’s leadership. However about 20 MPs are rumoured to support his ouster, others within the caucus worry that airing grievances publicly weakens the party and plays into the Conservatives’ hands. Ontario MP Chandra Arya warned against leadership turmoil, likening it to a self-destructive act that could fracture the party structure.

This reflects a deeper political reality: after nearly a decade in power, the Liberal government’s electoral prospects are bleak. Trudeau’s reluctance to leave may have as much to do with personal pride as strategic calculation. His animosity toward Poilievre, whom he reportedly sees as unfit for high office, might be compelling him to stay and fight another election. However, as columnist Lawrence Martin argued, political momentum in Canada inevitably shifts after a long period in office, and Trudeau’s time appears to be running out .

The critical question remains whether the rebellion within the Liberal caucus will have enough momentum to force Trudeau’s hand. Rebellions like this are fraught with uncertainty. If the MPs calling for his resignation fail to muster enough support, their effort could fizzle out, leaving Trudeau emboldened to continue. On the other hand, should the rebellion gather enough steam at the next caucus meeting, Trudeau may face an ultimatum: step down or be removed.

News: 4 more Trudeau cabinet ministers won’t seek re-election: sources

Yet, the Prime Minister’s response so far suggests he is ready to dig in. Reports indicate that his inner circle, including chief of staff Katie Telford, is blocking dissenting voices from reaching him, much as Chrétien did during his final years in power. If Trudeau continues to growing discontent, he risks leading the Liberals into the next election—one they appear destined to lose—with his legacy tarnished by stubbornness and electoral defeat.

The opportunity for Trudeau to leave on his own terms is slipping away. If he waits too long, the decision will no longer be his to make, and he may suffer the fate that many leaders dread: the humiliation of being ousted by either his own party or the electorate. Without a clear successor to rally around, the Liberal Party faces a daunting challenge.

For Trudeau, the path ahead offers two options: bow out gracefully, sparing the party and himself from further damage, or cling to power, risking a public revolt within caucus and electoral disaster. Given his track record and his apparent belief in his ability to weather crises, it seems likely that Trudeau will choose to fight. Whether that decision proves to be a final act of courage or folly will soon be revealed. (AI)

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