mortgage

Thursday October 24, 2024

The Bank of Canada's interest rate cut offers brief relief, but Canada's deeper economic challenges—stagnant productivity, population pressures, and weak growth—keep the country stuck under stormy skies.

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Thursday October 24, 2024

Brief Ray of Sunlight in Canada’s Stormy Economic Sky

June 6, 2024

Canada’s economy feels a lot like a rainy autumn day where, just as the clouds momentarily part to let in a sliver of sunlight, the dark skies quickly swallow it again. The Bank of Canada’s recent interest rate cuts are that fleeting patch of blue—a welcome break for mortgage holders and consumers facing high borrowing costs. But the broader economic forecast remains stormy, with clouds of weak productivity, strained public services, and a widening prosperity gap between Canada and its peers gathering overhead.

The temporary relief from interest rates being lowered offers some households a reprieve, much like the sun warming your face just long enough for you to think, maybe the worst is over. But that moment of optimism is short-lived when you realize the downpour hasn’t stopped—it’s just getting started. Canada’s structural problems—stagnant GDP per capita, high immigration without sufficient infrastructure, and sluggish business investment—continue to drench any hope for sustained economic growth.

News: Bank of Canada cuts its key interest rate by a half-point to 3.75%

Despite falling inflation, the Bank of Canada is likely to keep interest rates steady, raising questions about an immediate drop in borrowing costs.

March 5, 2024

Despite the IMF projecting 1.3% growth in 2024 and better numbers in 2025, these figures barely keep pace with Canada’s population boom. The pie may grow a little, but the extra mouths at the table are taking bigger bites. Meanwhile, across the border, America’s economic engine is humming at full throttle, widening the wealth gap between the two countries to levels unseen in decades. Australia and the UK are pulling ahead, too, leaving Canadians wondering how a once-wealthy nation ended up falling behind even in the pack of its Commonwealth cousins.

To some, it feels like Canada’s economic ship is springing leaks faster than we can plug them, weighed down by interprovincial trade barriers, rising taxes, and regulatory red tape. Meanwhile, businesses are keeping billions in capital idle like passengers clutching lifeboats, unwilling to dive in and invest under such uncertain conditions. And the government, focused more on redistributing wealth than creating it, continues to prioritize social spending over pro-growth policies that could set the country on a more prosperous course.

Analysis: Tepid economic growth, combined with a population boom, has hit Canada’s standing among rich countries

May 2, 2020

The sun may peek out from time to time—like this rate cut—but until deeper reforms address the underlying structural problems, it’s clear we are sailing into rough waters. Canada can’t simply count on the clouds to part. The country must act decisively to boost productivity, ease immigration pressures, and attract investment—before we find ourselves stranded in an economic fog we can’t navigate out of.

Because if there’s one thing worse than a storm, it’s getting so used to the clouds that you forget what clear skies look like. (AI)

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In Canada, today’s interest rate cut from the Bank of Canada—a pretty significant half-point reduction—offers a glimmer of hope amid an otherwise turbulent economic landscape. A family straddles on the roof of their home during a flood, taking respite from the storm as Tiff Macklem unveils the “Rate Cut” document. Around them swirls the rising tides and debris of debt, wreckage of lost innovation, stagnant wages, and soaring living costs, a stark reminder that this relief is temporary and the underlying issues still loom ominously beneath the surface.

A curious irony arises when we look southward to the United States. Despite robust economic growth, many Americans grapple with a sense of pessimism, fixating on income inequality, political instability, and inflation. Former President Trump’s exaggerated claims (aka lies) about the economy being in disarray only serve to amplify this narrative.

In contrast, many Canadians cling to the comforting illusion that our economy is stable, even as GDP per capita declines and our living standards lag behind not only the U.S. but also countries like Australia and the UK. This disconnect underscores a crucial point: Canadians may be too quick to celebrate fleeting moments of good news, such as interest rate cuts, while neglecting the mounting economic challenges that surround them.

Before dismissing this perspective as aligning with Pierre Poilievre’s “everything seems broken in Canada” rhetoric, it’s essential to recognize that the economy has been trending downward for decades. Federal fiscal policies—whether under Conservative, Liberal, or Liberal/NDP leadership—have all played a role in shaping the current disappointing state of the Canadian economy compared to similarly sized nations. Sloganeering will not lift Canada out of its economic malaise, nor will a complacent status quo. Forget the adversarial bunk that makes working across the aisle to get things done for the benefit of all in the long term. Setting aside partisan politics, we must demand real solutions to steer Canada back on the right path.

 

Friday May 31, 2024

Innovative leadership is essential to address Canada's inflation crisis, bridging the gap between optimistic official statistics and the harsh financial realities many Canadians face.

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Friday May 31, 2024

Innovative Leadership is Crucial to Reverse Canada’s Grim Economic Outlook

Despite falling inflation, the Bank of Canada is likely to keep interest rates steady, raising questions about an immediate drop in borrowing costs.

March 5, 2024

As Trevor Tombe compellingly outlines in his recent piece for The Hub, the reality of Canada’s inflation crisis is far more severe than headline statistics suggest. While official measures may indicate a return to stability, the lived experiences of Canadians tell a different story—one of enduring financial strain and diminishing purchasing power. It’s clear: innovative leadership is now more crucial than ever to reverse these hard times and challenge the prevailing pessimism.

Tombe’s analysis reveals a stark disconnect between the official inflation figures and the daily struggles faced by many Canadians. While the Bank of Canada’s core measures show inflation rates dipping below the 2% target, this offers little comfort to those dealing with skyrocketing costs in essentials such as rent, food, and gasoline. Since 2020, these costs have surged by 20%, 23%, and 30%, respectively. For mortgage holders, the burden is even heavier with interest costs up 43%. These salient price hikes dominate household budgets and shape public perception, making the reported average inflation rate feel misleadingly optimistic.

Analysis: Why inflation feels higher than the statistics suggest

Today's youth face a profound struggle with financial insecurity and societal pressures, hindering their ability to engage amid a pervasive cost of living crisis.

April 9, 2024

Addressing these issues requires more than traditional economic measures—it demands innovative leadership capable of crafting and implementing bold, effective strategies. One critical area is housing affordability. Government and private sector partnerships must innovate to increase the supply of affordable housing. This includes streamlining building regulations, providing incentives for developers to construct lower-cost homes, and expanding social housing projects.

September 19, 2023

Policies must also be designed to support the most affected demographics, particularly renters and lower-income households. This could involve direct financial assistance, subsidies for essential goods, or tax relief measures tailored to ease the cost burden on these groups. To sustainably restore purchasing power, Canada needs to focus on driving wage growth and productivity. Investments in education, skills training, and technology adoption can enhance the workforce’s capacity, leading to higher wages and economic growth.

Enhancing the way inflation is measured to more accurately reflect the diverse experiences of Canadians could help in crafting more effective policy responses. Including more granular data on different demographic groups would ensure that economic policies are better targeted and more equitable.

January 31, 2023

The pervasive pessimism about Canada’s economic future stems from the immediate and tangible hardships people face. However, innovative leadership can challenge this despair by demonstrating that positive change is possible. Transparent communication, clear action plans, and a commitment to addressing the root causes of economic distress are essential. Consider the example of New Zealand’s well-being budget, which prioritizes citizens’ overall well-being over traditional economic metrics. Such an approach could be adapted to the Canadian context, focusing on policies that enhance quality of life, reduce inequality, and ensure sustainable economic health.

May 10, 2022

Canada stands at a critical juncture. The grim reality of our current economic situation, as laid bare by Trevor Tombe, requires a response that is as bold as the challenges we face. Innovative leadership—characterized by creativity, empathy, and a willingness to break from the status quo—is essential to navigate these turbulent times and build a more resilient and equitable future.

Our leaders must rise to the occasion, not just to mitigate the immediate impacts of inflation, but to foster an environment where all Canadians can thrive. The path forward will not be easy, but with visionary leadership, we can reverse the tide of hardship and restore hope for a brighter, more prosperous future. (AI)

 

Thursday November 2, 2023

A surge in mortgage renewals in Canadian banks over the next three years may lead to substantial payment increases for borrowers due to rising interest rates, potentially affecting credit losses and bank profits.

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Thursday November 2, 2023

Haunted by High-Interest: The Looming Spector of Canadian Mortgage Renewals

In the eerie aftermath of Halloween, a haunting spector looms over Canadian mortgage holders, threatening a grim future of financial distress. The dread doesn’t come from ghouls or ghosts but from the imminent renewal of mortgages, unleashing a chilling cascade of increased interest rates set to torment thousands.

August 29, 2023

Recent analyses by RBC reveal a daunting reality: more than $900 billion in mortgages within Canadian banks are slated for renewal over the next three years. This impending wave of renewals, as pointed out by RBC researchers led by analyst Darko Mihelic, spells potential financial peril for many homeowners. An alarming 60 per cent of mortgages in Canadian chartered banks are anticipated to undergo renewal by 2026. As fixed-rate mortgage terms established prior to the Bank of Canada’s interest rate hike in October undergo renewal, borrowers are slated to face staggering increases in their monthly payments, a significant burden detailed in the report titled “Canadian Banks: A Review of Mortgage Payment Shock.”

The report forewarns that unless interest rates experience substantial declines, credit losses are bound to surge, potentially peaking in 2025 and beyond. These credit losses are estimated as outstanding payments owed to companies, including mortgage defaults. Alarming as it is, this prediction aligns with the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions’ directive to major banks to bolster reserves for potential debt defaults, nearly tripling the amount set aside for bad loans compared to the previous year.

News: About 60% of outstanding mortgages facing payment shock in next 3 years: RBC  

July 18, 2023

While some industry experts like Carl De Souza, senior vice-president at DBRS Morningstar, express confidence in the resilience of major Canadian banks against mortgage defaults, the forthcoming surge in renewals poses a significant threat to banks’ profitability and homeowners’ financial stability. However, the report suggests that the impact of mortgage losses might be mitigated to some extent due to Canada’s relatively low unemployment rate, which remains below pre-pandemic levels.

Nevertheless, the impending renewals paint a stark picture for homeowners. Banks are exploring options to alleviate the impending financial shocks, including renegotiating mortgage terms from variable to fixed rates. Currently, more than half of Canadians opt for a three-year fixed-term mortgage, but the stark difference in interest rates from previous years is ominous. Rates for a three-year fixed-term mortgage have climbed substantially, with estimates indicating a potential surge from the comparatively lower rates of 2019 to an alarming 6 to 8 percent at renewal, spelling financial distress for borrowers.

The report predicts a staggering increase in payments at each milestone year. In 2024, more than $186 billion in mortgages will renew, signifying a 32 percent payment shock. By 2025 and 2026, the looming numbers continue to surge, with estimated renewals of $315 billion and $400 billion, respectively. Payments are expected to soar by 33 percent and a staggering 48 percent, respectively, on a weighted average basis.

News: As inflationary pressures grow, Canadians increasingly struggle to make monthly mortgage & credit card payments 

May 13, 2010

Even if there’s a hopeful return of the Bank of Canada’s key interest rate to 0.25 percent by 2026, the projected increase in payments still stands at a significant 20 percent. RBC’s estimations suggest a potential return to a lower interest rate in the future, yet the haunting reality of surging payments remains a foreboding certainty.

The post-Halloween season brings no respite as the grim spector of mortgage renewals hangs ominously over Canadian homeowners. The alarming forecasts and stark statistics paint a chilling picture of financial turmoil, urging caution and preparedness to weather the impending storm of high-interest renewals. (AI)

 

Tuesday July 18, 2023

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Tuesday July 18, 2023

The Struggles of Staying Home: Variants of Concern and Skyrocketing Interest Rates

November 30, 2021

In recent times, people have been facing multiple challenges that keep them confined to their homes. Two significant issues that have played a role in this situation are the emergence of Variants of Concern (VOC) during the COVID-19 pandemic and the sudden increase in interest rates, impacting variable rate mortgages. These circumstances have led individuals to prioritize financial stability over indulging in luxury and recreational activities like visiting restaurants, bars, movies, and vacations. Let’s explore the impact of these interconnected factors on people’s lives.

The COVID-19 pandemic has witnessed the emergence of various variants of the virus. While most variants do not significantly alter the virus’s properties or its impact on communities, some Variants of Concern have raised alarms. These variants exhibit changes that affect crucial factors such as transmissibility, virulence, vaccine effectiveness, and diagnostic testing. Detecting and monitoring these variants is of utmost importance to prevent their rapid spread and devise appropriate strategies to contain the virus.

January 30, 2021

One such method used to identify VOC was through the testing of wastewater in Ottawa. However, due to limited funding, the rapid and cost-effective testing method for variants will soon cease. This decision has raised concerns among scientists and researchers who stress the importance of timely and frequent monitoring of variants. Identifying emerging VOC and estimating their growth within a community becomes increasingly challenging when testing frequency is low. It is vital to maintain robust monitoring systems to stay ahead of the ever-evolving COVID-19 virus.

January 27, 2022

In parallel, the recent surge in interest rates has significantly impacted homeowners with variable rate mortgages. The Bank of Canada’s consecutive interest rate hikes have left borrowers grappling with higher borrowing costs. This increase comes after a brief respite when interest rates remained steady, fueling a surge in home sales and prices reminiscent of the pandemic’s real estate boom. However, the central bank’s efforts to curb inflation have now placed borrowers under mounting pressure.

Variable-rate mortgage borrowers face the immediate burden of rising costs as more of their monthly payments are allocated towards interest rather than reducing the size of their loans. Consequently, the length of their loan repayment periods automatically extends to maintain steady payments. While some borrowers managed to make additional payments during the rate reprieve, the recent interest rate hikes will further stretch their amortization periods. As a result, borrowers will face higher monthly payments when their loans come up for renewal, leading to potential financial strain.

June 22, 2021

The impact of these rising interest rates is also evident in the housing market, particularly in major cities like Toronto. The market, once characterized by frenzied activity, has started to show signs of cooling. Home sales have decreased, reflecting buyers’ growing caution and concerns about future increases in interest rates. The once-enticing real estate landscape has now become a cause for hesitation and financial prudence.

These converging challenges have limited people’s mobility and hindered their ability to engage in leisurely pursuits. The combination of Variants of Concern and rising interest rates has reshaped priorities, pushing individuals to focus on financial stability rather than indulging in luxuries or non-essential activities. Restaurants, bars, movies, and vacations have taken a backseat as people adapt to the new reality, emphasizing the importance of financial planning and prudent decision-making.

As we navigate these challenging times, it is crucial to find a balance between safeguarding public health and maintaining economic stability. Timely monitoring and surveillance of COVID-19 variants, along with supportive measures to help borrowers cope with rising interest rates, will be essential in enabling individuals to regain a sense of normalcy. By addressing these concerns, we can strive to create a safer and more sustainable future, where people can confidently venture out from their homes without compromising their well-being or financial security. (AI)

Tuesday January 24, 2023

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Tuesday January 24, 2023

Liberal Cabinet Retreat

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made his first stop in Hamilton Monday a chance to grab lunch to go with MP Filomena Tassi at The Burnt Tongue on Locke Street.

October 28, 2022

The prime minister and his cabinet are staying in town this week from Jan. 23 to 25 for their post-holiday retreat.

After ordering a cheeseburger and broccoli cheddar soup, Trudeau took a moment to shake hands with the lunch crowd and pose for some photos.

Leaving the restaurant, he posed for a photo with Ashley Acacio and her three-week-old son Mac in his stroller, even correcting the position of a staffer taking a photo for the pair.

On the way to his vehicle, Trudeau hopped on an HSR bus that stopped to greet riders.

Meanwhile, about 200 demonstrators gathered downtown Monday to protest the retreat, calling for migrant rights. They were joined by anti-war demonstrators and about 25 anti-Trudeau and anti-vaccine mandate protesters.

The protesters marched along Main Street, across Summers Lane and blocked King Street in front of the Sheraton Hamilton Hotel for around 20 minutes.

Trudeau’s itinerary said he is expected to attend the retreat, which will focus on affordability and the economy, at 5:30 p.m. Monday. (Toronto Star) 

December 9, 2022

Meanwhile, it’s at the grocery store. It’s at the gas pumps. It’s at your favourite restaurant.

Nearly everywhere Canadians have gone in the past year, every bill might as well have had an extra charge tacked on to the bottom reading simply: inflation.

A shorthand for what’s essentially the rising cost of living, inflation swept across the globe in 2022 and Canada was not immune from its sting.

Canadians eager to travel in June after years of COVID-19 restrictions were met by a 49.7 per cent year-over-year hike in the cost of accommodations. The rest of that summer saw the average price for regular gasoline soar past $2 per litre in many parts of the country. And in October, Canadians were paying 44.8 per cent more for pasta from the grocery store than the same month a year earlier.

April 25, 2014

Poll after poll showed how stretched Canadian dollars had become amid 40-year highs in inflation, with many forced to make impossible decisions about how to feed their families, pay for medications and keep a roof over their heads.

More than a third (36 per cent) of Canadians say their financial situations are very bad or somewhat bad heading into 2023, according to Ipsos Public Affairs polling conducted exclusively for Global News between Dec. 14 and 16. (Global News) 

In the swearing-in of cabinet following the 2021 federal election, the dropping of the awkwardly named Minister of Middle-Class Prosperity, held by Mona Fortier, signalled the short termed portfolio (2019-2021) was an ill conceived addition to the executive team under Prime Minister Trudeau.