NAFTA

Tuesday November 19, 2019

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Tuesday November 19, 2019

Pelosi hints that a USMCA deal might be near. It’s a wise move for Democrats

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) suggested both that President Trump may be impeachable due to “bribery” and gave her strongest signal yet that the House Democratic leadership is close to a deal with the White House that would enable the passage of Mr. Trump’s update to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). In fact, she said those two seemingly contradictory things within the same news conference. Politics is indeed a strange and wondrous business.

June 22, 2019

Thank goodness. Governability can no longer be taken for granted in Washington, much less actual legislation. The impeachment of Mr. Trump along what are so far highly partisan lines threatened to deepen the dysfunctionality, despite promises from Ms. Pelosi and other Democratic leaders that the House could “walk and chew gum at the same time.” Ms. Pelosi’s optimistic words regarding the NAFTA revision, which Mr. Trump calls the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), were clearly carefully chosen and confirm that she was serious about her pledge to continue attending to the people’s business while the hearings proceed. This is a tribute also to the several dozen moderate members of her caucus, many first-termers elected from swing districts, who recognize that it is in their interest — as well as the country’s — to preserve stability in the hemispheric economy.

December 4, 2018

Stability is the operative word. Though highly unpopular in many quarters, especially the (often Democratic-leaning) industrial heartland — where it was blamed for loss of jobs to lower-wage Mexico — NAFTA, for better or worse, legally defines the multitrillion-dollar economic relationship among the United States and its two neighbors. To blow it up and revert to the higher-tariff status quo ante, as Mr. Trump threatened to do both in his 2016 campaign and as president, would have been disastrous.

On the other hand, having gone into effect in 1994, NAFTA was due for modernization, particularly to take account of new developments in e-commerce. Therefore, when Mr. Trump agreed to engage with Mexico and Canada in a renegotiation of the deal, it was wise for Democrats not to dismiss the effort out of hand, even if it might mean ultimately having to share credit with a Republican president for an initiative they had long promised to mount themselves.

October 2, 2018

On the merits, Mr. Trump’s deal is a tweak to NAFTA, disproving his hyperbole about how bad the old agreement was and how good his new one will be. It does indeed improve e-commerce rules and crack Canadian dairy protectionism. For the most part, though, the USMCA deal is about managed trade, not free trade. Its key provisions would set minimum autoworker wages in Mexico and guarantee higher North American content for cars and trucks made in the three signatory countries, so as to protect U.S. Jobs.

The realistic alternative, though, is a rupture with Mexico and Canada, which is why Ms. Pelosi and the moderates in her caucus are right to work with Mr. Trump, and why we hope they will see the USMCA through to House passage, send it to the GOP Senate for likely approval — and then move on to other business, impeachment included. (Washington Post)  

 

Tuesday December 4, 2018

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Tuesday December 4, 2018

Donald Trump threatens to kill NAFTA in push for Congress to approve new trade deal

U.S. President Donald Trump says he will withdraw the United States from NAFTA “in the not-too-distant future” in a hardball attempt to pressure Congress into voting to approve his new agreement with Canada and Mexico. 

November 30, 2018

The original North American Free Trade Agreement would otherwise remain in place if Congress rejected or delayed the new agreement, which Trump calls the USMCA and Canada calls CUSMA or “the new NAFTA.” A Trump withdrawal would give Congress a take-it-or-leave-it choice between the new agreement — which is highly similar to the original — and no agreement at all.

The new agreement has been criticized on various grounds by both Democrats and Republicans, leaving its prospects for passage uncertain. The Democrats, who will take control of the House of Representatives in January, have made clear that they do not plan to approve the deal any time soon.

Trump’s announcement late Saturday introduced new uncertainty into the continental trading relationship just a day after the leaders of the three countries held a signing ceremony for the new agreement, at which Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said the agreement “lifts the risks of serious economic uncertainty” that hovered over the negotiations themselves. Trump’s words suggested the state of bilateral trade will remain uncertain as long as the president is in office.

November 12, 2018

Advocates of free trade say a withdrawal would be a foolish gamble with the American economy. Trump has said he doesn’t see it that way, since he believes the economy was stronger without NAFTA than it is with it.

“Congress will have a choice of the USMCA or pre-NAFTA, which worked very well,”  Trump told reporters on the flight back from the G20 summit in Argentina.

“Congress will have a choice of approving the USMCA, which is a phenomenal deal. Much, much better than NAFTA. A great deal, ” he said. He again described NAFTA as a “disaster,” although the new deal he calls “incredible” retains almost all of NAFTA’ s central features while making a smattering of substantial changes.

The Canadian government declined to comment on the record. An official said on condition of anonymity, “ We are focused on our domestic ratification process and not a process that is internal to the U.S.” 

September 6, 2018

Trump’s announcement is likely to displease businesses across the continent, which have hailed the new agreement for preserving tariff-free North American trade and for allowing them to make investment plans with some degree of confidence that the rules will not soon change.

It is unclear whether Trump has the power to actually withdraw the U.S. from NAFTA. Some experts say he does, some say he doesn’t. The move would undoubtedly be challenged in U.S. courts, which have not yet weighed in on the question.

A Canadian government official told the Star last year that they have concluded “there’s a pretty good chance that he could just do this.” The official said the government also believed the old Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement, which preceded NAFTA, would snap back into force if he did.

June 6, 2018

Others say it would not be so simple.

It is also unclear whether Trump will indeed proceed. Trump has repeatedly delivered trade threats he has not carried out, and his aides — joined by Trudeau — have talked him out of withdrawing from NAFTA before. He has sometimes appeared to use harsh trade rhetoric primarily to appeal to parts of his political base, and his tough talk on Saturday came immediately after he announced that he had taken a conciliatory stance in a trade meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, postponing a plan to increase tariffs on Chinese products. (Source: Toronto Star) 

Friday November 30, 2018

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Friday November 30, 2018

USMCA signing could be overshadowed by larger divisions between nations at G20

Officials don’t know yet who will sign the pact. And they haven’t said exactly when, or where, it’s going to happen.

October 2, 2018

But when the G20 summit in Buenos Aires is over, the leaders of Canada, the United States and Mexico are supposed to be coming home with a newly signed trade agreement.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Wednesday his government was “still in discussions” with Washington about the timing and circumstances of the official United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement signing event. At any rate, it may turn out to be a hold-your-nose moment for the Trudeau government, which had hoped to see U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum lifted before signing day.

August 18, 2018

The chances that the tariffs will even be discussed at the summit, let alone lifted, are so slim that a source tells CBC News that Canada’s ambassador to the U.S. isn’t even going to Argentina.

David MacNaughton has been a key leader for the Canadian trade negotiating team, but he will not be present for the anticipated signing ceremony, or for any sideline talks with the Americans in Buenos Aires.

While the USMCA signing will be big news in Canada when it happens, it’s likely to be overshadowed by the larger global divisions on display at the G20.

June 9, 2018

The official agenda will see leaders discussing different approaches to sustainable and fair growth for the global economy. But these conversations come at a time when confidence in multilateral institutions is declining.

The Americans have been at the centre of two summits that ended in diplomatic disaster in this year alone.

Most recently, the APEC summit in Papua New Guinea ended without a communique, as trade frustrations between the U.S. and China flared.

In June, the G7 summit in Charlevoix, Quebec ended with President Trump pulling his support for the communique and lashing out at Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, calling him “weak.” (Source: CBC) 

 

Tuesday October 2, 2018

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Tuesday October 2, 2018

President Trump creates crises, then claims credit for solving them

September 5, 2018

President Trump’s specialty is to create crises and then claim credit for solving them. Last year, for example, he ratcheted up the rhetoric against Kim Jong Un — a.k.a. “Little Rocket Man” — threatening to rain “fire and fury” on North Korea. Trump now claims he and Kim “fell in love” after Kim sent him “beautiful letters,” and that, were it not for this bromance, “you’d be in a war” and “millions of people would have been killed.” In reality, no one thought a second Korean War was likely before Trump took office. That only became a serious risk because of his unhinged rhetoric.

Trump has applied this same template to the North

August 28, 2018

American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which he spent years lambasting as “the worst trade deal ever approved.” According to Bob Woodward’s book “Fear: Trump in the White House,” Trump was on the verge of pulling out of NAFTA in April 2017, and had to be talked back from the brink by senior aides. He grudgingly remained in the deal while launching high-pressure negotiations to rework it.

Lo and behold, just ahead of a U.S.-imposed deadline on Sunday night, the United States, Mexico and Canada agreed on a revamped NAFTA. Trump triumphantly proclaimed on Twitter that this was a “wonderful new Trade Deal,” “historic,” and “a great deal for all three countries.” “NAFTA is dead,” said White House trade adviser Peter Navarro. Long live the new United States-Canada-Mexico Agreement (USMCA).

June 13, 2018

In fact, the biggest change is the name of the trade deal, and it is not an improvement. Just try saying “USMCA.” It does not roll off the tongue the way “NAFTA” did. As for the substance, my Council on Foreign Relations colleague Benn Steil rightly describes the new agreement as “little more than margin edits.”

Trump’s biggest victory was in opening up slightly more of the Canadian dairy market for U.S. exports. This has long been an obsession for him. He complained in June: “Canada charges the U.S. a 270% tariff on Dairy Products! They didn’t tell you that, did they? Not fair to our farmers.” Trump was right about the Canadian tariffs. What he didn’t mention is that the United States still ran a $474 million dairy surplus last year, with U.S. farmers selling five times more dairy goods to Canada than U.S. consumers bought from Canada. In any case, milk products represent just 0.06 percent of U.S.-Canada trade, 99 percent of which was already tariff-free. (Source: Washington Post) 

 

Tuesday September 18, 2018

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Tuesday September 18, 2018

Trudeau’s to-do list just got bigger

If stalled pipelines and deadlocked trade talks have given Justin Trudeau a pounding head, he should brace himself — and Canada — for an absolute economic migraine.

March 24, 2016

Two sobering new reports warn that, unless Canadian governments take fast, aggressive action, this country’s economy will be hammered by a one-two combination of recently lowered American taxes and a sharp decline in business investment.

This is bad news for Canadians and comes at a sensitive time for our economy, as well as the prime minister.

Parliament resumes sitting this week and with the next federal election barely a year away the Liberals are working overtime to persuade everyone these are sunny days, economically speaking.

August 28, 2018

But the free-trade deal with the United States and Mexico, which has sustained millions of Canadian jobs and enriched the Canadian economy for decades, could collapse at any moment.

Meanwhile, Ottawa’s plan to expand the Trans Mountain Pipeline — which it bought for $4.5 billion in taxpayers’ money — is going nowhere.

Now more storm clouds darken our horizon. A new report commissioned by the Business Council of Canada concludes the latest tax cuts in the United States could devastate Canada’s economy.

How bad could it get? The report suggests the damage could exceed the economic harm that would be caused by the end of the North American Free Trade Agreement.

May 18, 2018

years, businesses in Canada benefited from a corporate-tax advantage. That suddenly ended last December when the U.S. Congress passed tax reforms that slashed the federal corporate tax rate to 21 per cent from 35 per cent.

The report warns America’s tax cuts could cost Canada up to 635,000 jobs and reduce its annual gross domestic product by $85 billion — the equivalent of nearly five per cent of our economy. As governments could lose up to $20 billion a year in tax revenues, almost everyone in Canada would suffer.

The challenge to our economy from these tax cuts becomes even more serious when placed in the context of a growing reluctance to invest in Canada. A report released last week by the C.D. Howe Institute called weak capital spending a “threat to Canada’s future prosperity.”

October 19, 2017

Echoing the think-tank’s fears, the chief executive officer of the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, Victor Dodig, last week cited falling levels of foreign investment in Canada as he called on the country to set clearer rules to boost investor confidence.

Evidence from Statistics Canada gives credence to these concerns. In 2017, foreign direct investment in Canada declined for the third year in a row, dropping by a whopping 26 per cent.

It would be a mistake to consider any of these economic challenges in isolation. The failure to build a pipeline to carry Alberta’s oil to an ocean port where it can be sold for a higher price is surely convincing foreign investors to avoid Canada the way they would a patch of poison ivy.

September 21, 2016

Likewise, lowered American tax rates make that country a more desirable place to invest — once again to Canada’s disadvantage.

So far, Trudeau’s Liberals have dithered in their response to the U.S. tax cuts and investor flight. That vacillation must end.

In his economic update this fall, federal Finance Minister Bill Morneau should offer concrete ways to improve this country’s ability to compete and make it more attractive for investment.

That may or may not bring corporate tax cuts and changes to regulations. It must translate into meaningful action. (Source: Hamilton Spectator Editorial)