promise

Wednesday November 20, 2019

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Wednesday November 20, 2019

Why affordability is (was) dominating Canada’s election campaign

(Article published 6 weeks before editorial cartoon was printed)

September 19, 2019

Canada’s political party leaders are making affordability the central talking point of their election campaigns, rolling out targeted measures to alleviate the financial strain besetting voters.

Though broad economic data show the nation’s economy is humming along, Canadians are still feeling tight on cash. The worsening global outlook and unprecedented policy uncertainty are adding to the apprehension.

Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau and Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer, along with the leaders of smaller parties are seeking to parlay that stress into votes as the clock winds down on the Oct. 21 election, by promising a slew of tax cuts and other measures to make life more affordable.

“Politicians are putting their finger on something, some form of financial anxiety about rising costs, or concerns about future rising costs, or future standard of living,” said Jennifer Robson, associate professor of political management at Carleton University in Ottawa.

Here’s why consumers are feeling pinched.

It’s old news that owning a home in Canada’s biggest cities has become an almost impossible goal for much of the middle class. Skyrocketing prices in recent years pushed potential buyers to the sidelines. New mortgage lending rules, so-called stress tests introduced by federal regulators in 2017, put ownership even further out of reach for many.

September 12, 2019

Toronto and Vancouver are easily Canada’s two main cities where residents are struggling to find an affordable place to live. The average selling price for a single-family home in Vancouver was $1.51 million in September, and $1.1 million in Toronto. Renting in those cities is no easy feat, either, as low vacancy rates have pushed up prices for accommodation.

Elevated real estate prices are the main driver of the country’s record household debt ratios, now the highest in the Group of Seven. Buyers took out larger and larger mortgages as the housing market heated up, even as incomes failed to keep pace. As a result, household savings rates are hovering near the lowest in decades, and the debt service ratio — which measures the share of disposable income paid toward principal and interest — climbed to a record in the second quarter.

While overall price inflation in Canada has been relatively benign, shoppers have experienced sticker shock on many basics. Prices for fruits and vegetables jumped as much as 60 per cent in the past decade, according to Statistics Canada. Child-care and tuition costs rose upwards of 35 per cent, and public transit prices ballooned by 50 per cent.

To top it all off, wages after accounting for inflation have remained relatively flat, even as costs for rent and basic goods increased. A puzzle for many economists and policy-makers is why unemployment is hovering near record lows, yet incomes are struggling to pick up. (Hamilton Spectator) 

 

Saturday October 20, 2018

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Saturday October 20, 2018

At least one robocall poll suggests a divisive LRT project has turned Hamilton’s mayoral election race into a statistical dead heat.

An automated telephone survey by Forum Research of 1,556 residents showed 39 per cent support pro-LRT incumbent Fred Eisenberger while 38 percent back anti-LRT challenger Vito Sgro. Other respondents either said they will choose another of the 15 mayoral candidates (12%) or were undecided (12%).

October 13, 2018

Respondents – a majority reached by landline – were similarly divided when asked how they felt about the contentious $1-billion light rail line, said Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff. Half said they opposed the project, while 46% were supportive.

And when those residents were specifically informed about the positions of both candidates on LRT and asked to choose between them again, the support split at 43 percent each.

“It is so close, the numbers are almost identical,” said Bozinoff of the survey, which claims a margin of error of 2.48%, with total sample results considered accurate 19 times out of 20. “What it means – because municipal voter turnout is not great – is that it is important for both sides to get out their vote on Monday.”

August 14, 2018

Forum Research was not paid for the survey and plans to release the results publicly Friday, said Bozinoff. The firm periodically conducts polls and offers the results for free to drum up clients.

Bozinoff noted light rail transit was also an issue – but not the top priority – for voters polled in a paid Forum survey conducted for The Spectator during the 2014 election.

This time, fully a third of respondents called LRT the top issue that would influence their vote.

By contrast, 17 percent chose taxes, 15 percent chose infrastructure/roads and nine-percent chose public safety. “Often, the top issue is taxes,” Bozinoff said. “Clearly, people feel very strongly about this (LRT) issue.”

Interestingly, the majority of respondents who offered an opinion about LRT feel passionately about the project, one way or another. (Source: Hamilton Spectator) 

 

Saturday February 4, 2017

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Saturday February 4, 2017

In light of Donald Trump, Justin Trudeau is clearing the decks.

The prime minister is ditching complicated and politically difficult aspects of his agenda in order to focus on the mercurial U.S. President.

February 2, 2017

That’s the context for Trudeau’s dramatic about-face this week on electoral reform.

It also helps explain why he put the kibosh Wednesday to suggestions the government might tax employee health and dental benefits.

In that case, he publicly undercut Finance Minister Bill Morneau who, in his review of pricey tax breaks, has been deliberately noncommittal about such a move.

A political fight over a popular tax break is the last thing the Liberal government wants now.

Nor, apparently, does it want to spend time and energy on an issue, like electoral reform, that polls suggest most Canadians don’t much care about.

January 11, 2016

Ottawa has always been sensitive to political ebbs and flows in the U.S. During the 2015 election campaign that brought him to power, Trudeau promised to be even more Washington-focused.

But Trump’s election victory has presented Canada’s government with a host of new problems.

First and foremost is the future of the North American Free Trade Agreement. Trump’s insistence on a renegotiation of that pact could, in the short run at least, devastate portions of the Canadian economy.

As well, Trump’s ambitious public works promises, if affected, could put upward pressure on interest rates. That in turn could raise the cost of Trudeau’s proposed public investments.

Trump is also musing about a 20 per cent border adjustment tax on exports to the U.S., including, presumably, exports from Canada.

His decision to ban citizens of seven Muslim-majority countries from entering the U.S. threw Ottawa into a tizzy, one that was only partially resolved when the Americans agreed to exempt dual nationals holding Canadian passports. (Source: Toronto Star) 

 

Thursday February 2, 2017

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Thursday February 2, 2017

Trudeau drops pledge to reform Canada’s electoral system

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has abandoned his longstanding promise to overhaul Canada’s voting system.

December 9, 2016

Trudeau made the dramatic reversal of a key platform plank in a new mandate letter for Karina Gould, his newly named minister of democratic institutions.

“Changing the electoral system will not be in your mandate,” reads the letter.

“There has been tremendous work by the House of Commons Special Committee on Electoral Reform, outreach by Members of Parliament by all parties, and engagement of 360,000 individuals in Canada through mydemocracy.ca,” Trudeau wrote.

“A clear preference for a new electoral system, let alone a consensus, has not emerged. Furthermore, without a clear preference or a clear question, a referendum would not be in Canada’s interest.”

December 2, 2016

That clearly contradicts a report submitted by a parliamentary committee to the government last fall.

Trudeau had long said the Liberals would ensure the 2015 election was the last one held under the current first-past-the-post system, under which the party that wins a plurality of votes gets to form government, even if it doesn’t win a 50-per-cent-plus-one-vote majority of the popular vote.

In a town hall in Belleville three weeks ago, Trudeau admitted he was “on record” as personally in favour of a ranked ballot system. But he insisted at that time he would not back away from its plan to change the way Canadians vote and elect their governments.

Instead, Trudeau set out a broader goal — with some new marching orders — for Gould.

October 21, 2016

“As Minister of Democratic Institutions, your overarching goal will be to strengthen the openness and fairness of Canada’s public institutions. You will lead on improving our democratic institutions and Senate reform to restore Canadians’ trust and participation in our democratic processes,” he wrote.

Gould told reporters her priorities will be to legislate changes to boost transparency for cash-for-access political fundraisers, and getting the government’s key electronic signals spy agency (CSE or Communications Security Establishment) to assess the risk posed by hackers to Canadian political and electoral activities.

On the defensive in her first major news conference, Gould said that the government undertook major consultations and listened to Canadians on electoral reform but “we realized there was no consensus to move forward with electoral reform.” (Source: Toronto Star) 

 

Friday October 21, 2016

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator Ð Friday October 21, 2016 Is Trudeau jockeying to avoid fulfilling promise on electoral reform? Is Justin Trudeau laying the groundwork for reneging on his promise to make the 2015 federal election the last to be conducted under the first-past-the-post voting system? Or is the prime minister trying to drive a hard bargain with the NDP and Greens to abandon their own ambitious preference for a proportional voting system and settle for a more modest change to a ranked ballot system? Those questions were touched off Wednesday by an interview Trudeau gave to MontrealÕs Le Devoir newspaper. In it, Trudeau said major electoral reforms would require ÒsubstantialÓ support. But he simultaneously argued that the public clamour for change seems to have diminished since the Liberals defeated Stephen HarperÕs Conservatives one year ago. ÒUnder the current system, (Canadians) now have a government theyÕre more satisfied with and the motivation to change the electoral system is less compelling,Ó he said. NDP Leader Tom Mulcair took that as clear evidence that Trudeau is preparing to break his promise on electoral reform. ÒI do believe that Mr. Trudeau is showing the type of cynicism that he used to always decry when he was in opposition,Ó Mulcair said. ÒWhat could be more cynical that to say, ÔYou know what? This is a totally unfair system because it allowed Stephen Harper to get a massive majority with only 39 per cent of the vote,Õ and then, exactly one year later, say, ÒOh, but by the way, itÕs a darn good system because it allowed Justin Trudeau to get a massive majority with just 39 per cent of the vote.ÕÓ (Source: Toronto Star)Êhttps://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/10/19/is-trudeau-jockeying-to-avoid-fulfilling-promise-on-electoral-reform.html Canada, Justin Trudeau, Thomas Mulcair, electoral reform, election, reform, electoral, torch, promise

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Friday October 21, 2016

Is Trudeau jockeying to avoid fulfilling promise on electoral reform?

Is Justin Trudeau laying the groundwork for reneging on his promise to make the 2015 federal election the last to be conducted under the first-past-the-post voting system?

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator Ð Thursday June 2, 2016 'We can do better': Liberals kick off push to change Canada's voting system Having promised that the last federal campaign will be the last one conducted under the first-past-the-post voting system, the Liberal government is proposing that a special committee study the alternatives and report back to the House of Commons by Dec. 1. A motion to create the committee was unveiled on Tuesday night. Democratic Reform Minister Maryam Monsef and Government House leader Dominic LeBlanc explained their government's plans on Wednesday morning. The committee would consist of 10 voting members: six Liberals, three Conservatives and one New Democrat. One Bloc QuŽbŽcois MP and Green MP Elizabeth May would be members of the committee, but not allowed to vote. "In a multi-party democracy like Canada, first past the post distorts the will of the electorate. It's part of why so many Canadians don't engage in or care about politics," Monsef told reporters. "While there's no such thing as a perfect electoral system, we can do better.Ó The committee would be asked to "identify and conduct a study of viable alternate voting systems, such as preferential ballots and proportional representation, to replace the first-past-the-post system, as well as to examine mandatory voting and online voting.Ó Options would be judged on the basis of five principles: * Effectiveness and legitimacy. * Engagement. * Accessibility and inclusiveness. * Integrity. * Local representation. The committee would invite every MP to conduct a forum on electoral reform in his or her riding and file a report on the discussion by Oct. 1. And the committee itself would conduct a "national engagement process," including written and online submissions. (Source: CBC News)Êhttp://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/liberals-electoral-reform-1.3576472 Canada, Justin Trudeau, electoral, election, reform, garage, democracy, voting, ballot, box

June 2, 2016

Or is the prime minister trying to drive a hard bargain with the NDP and Greens to abandon their own ambitious preference for a proportional voting system and settle for a more modest change to a ranked ballot system?

Those questions were touched off Wednesday by an interview Trudeau gave to Montreal’s Le Devoir newspaper.

In it, Trudeau said major electoral reforms would require “substantial” support. But he simultaneously argued that the public clamour for change seems to have diminished since the Liberals defeated Stephen Harper’s Conservatives one year ago.

“Under the current system, (Canadians) now have a government they’re more satisfied with and the motivation to change the electoral system is less compelling,” he said.

NDP Leader Tom Mulcair took that as clear evidence that Trudeau is preparing to break his promise on electoral reform.

“I do believe that Mr. Trudeau is showing the type of cynicism that he used to always decry when he was in opposition,” Mulcair said.

“What could be more cynical that to say, ‘You know what? This is a totally unfair system because it allowed Stephen Harper to get a massive majority with only 39 per cent of the vote,’ and then, exactly one year later, say, “Oh, but by the way, it’s a darn good system because it allowed Justin Trudeau to get a massive majority with just 39 per cent of the vote.’” (Source: Toronto Star)

The inspiration of much discussion on Reddit. Posted to National Newswatch.

Liberals taking a slippery out

RE: Trudeau wobbling on democratic reform (Oct. 21) Letter to the Editor, Hamilton Spectator Oct 26, 20016

The editorial and the arrogant cartooned caricature depiction of the PM say it all. Throughout his pre-election campaign, Justin Trudeau’s vigorous and repetitive promise to reform the electoral system left absolutely no wiggle room to backtrack. That was then, and now he appears to be sidestepping electoral reform to avoid wading through the dung of his seeming unattainable strategic voter enticement. Fortunately for the Liberals, unanimity being a condition for the all-party committee resolve leaves him and his Liberals a slippery out. All indications point to non-unanimity. All indications point to expectancy that the election of 2015 will not be the last using the first-past-the-post system. After all, the fit of first-past-the-post with a minority 39 per cent popular vote and a majority mandate now suits the prime minister, so why rock the boat?

M.J. Pavlov, Hamilton