Science

Friday December 24, 2021

Illustration by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Friday December 24, 2021 (Two articles follow when clicking on the date above)

The pandemic’s terrible twos — lingering tantrums plague us

A pandemic is a hard, peculiar shape to wrap your head around, to fit your life, thinking, lungs and feelings around, to take sides about.

I’ll get to polarization and side-taking, in a bit. It’s true, this pandemic is not a world war, not global famine, but it is something. It has a shape. An ink blot maybe? Many things to many people? The shape of things to come?

Not a shape perhaps but more like a sensation, like walking through spider webs. It feels bad, you weren’t expecting it and, I mean, brrr, it’s spider webs, but then nothing bad happens to YOU and you feel silly because … I mean, like, it’s spider webs; gossamer. Chances would be slim that you’d be walking into actual spiders and even if you were, chances would be slimmer that they’d be black widows. Landmines don’t come in gossamer, do they?

You might feel that way sometimes.

Friday November 19, 2021

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, (Not published in The Hamilton Spectator) – Friday November 19, 2021

Capitalism is killing the planet

There is a myth about human beings that withstands all evidence. It’s that we always put our survival first. This is true of other species. When confronted by an impending threat, such as winter, they invest great resources into avoiding or withstanding it: migrating or hibernating, for example. Humans are a different matter.

4 Waves Cartoon

When faced with an impending or chronic threat, such as climate or ecological breakdown, we seem to go out of our way to compromise our survival. We convince ourselves that it’s not so serious, or even that it isn’t happening. We double down on destruction, swapping our ordinary cars for SUVs, jetting to Oblivia on a long-haul flight, burning it all up in a final frenzy. In the back of our minds, there’s a voice whispering, “If it were really so serious, someone would stop us.” If we attend to these issues at all, we do so in ways that are petty, tokenistic, comically ill-matched to the scale of our predicament. It is impossible to discern, in our response to what we know, the primacy of our survival instinct.

Here is what we know. We know that our lives are entirely dependent on complex natural systems: the atmosphere, ocean currents, the soil, the planet’s webs of life. People who study complex systems have discovered that they behave in consistent ways. It doesn’t matter whether the system is a banking network, a nation state, a rainforest or an Antarctic ice shelf; its behaviour follows certain mathematical rules. In normal conditions, the system regulates itself, maintaining a state of equilibrium. It can absorb stress up to a certain point. But then it suddenly flips. It passes a tipping point, then falls into a new state of equilibrium, which is often impossible to reverse.

Human civilisation relies on current equilibrium states. But, all over the world, crucial systems appear to be approaching their tipping points. If one system crashes, it is likely to drag others down, triggering a cascade of chaos known as systemic environmental collapse. This is what happened during previous mass extinctions. (Continued: The Guardian) 

November 19, 2021

Atmospheric rivers of the kind that flooded British Columbia and renched California in recent weeks will become larger — and possibly more destructive — because of climate change, scientists said.

Columns in the atmosphere hundreds of miles long carry water vapour over oceans from the tropics to more temperate regions in amounts more than double the flow of the Amazon River, according to the American Meteorological Society.

These “rivers in the sky” are relatively common, with about 11 present on Earth at any time, according to NASA.

But warming air and seas around the globe causes conditions that scientists said will make them hold more moisture, causing extreme precipitation when they make landfall, often on the west coasts of North America, South America and Western Europe.

Because of climate change, atmospheric rivers are projected to become slightly less frequent, but more intense, according to a 2018 study led by researchers from NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

“There may be fewer, but they are going to be lasting longer, and more intense,” Vicky Espinoza, an author of the NASA study who is now a graduate student at the University of California Merced, said.

Atmospheric rivers will become about 10% less frequent by the end of this century, but about 25% longer and wider, the study found. That will lead to nearly double the frequency of the most intense atmospheric river storms. (Continued: CTV) 

 

Friday October 15, 2021

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Friday October 15, 2021

Ford should rethink outdated minimum wage stand

Doug Ford’s minimum-wage policy is the product of minimal thought.

April 29, 2021

Since becoming Ontario’s premier more than three years ago, Ford has rejected any meaningful increase in the baseline wages that employers must by law pay to their workers. After freezing minimum wages during his first 27 months in office, the premier consented to a 25-cent-an-hour increase one year ago then followed up with a paltry 10-cent-an-hour hike on Oct. 1. That brought the current hourly minimum wage to $14.35.

For many of the province’s 500,000 minimum-wage earners, this month’s change felt like a slap in the face instead of a helpful hand up. Those extra 80 cents they have in their pockets after an eight-hour-day’s efforts wouldn’t even cover the cost of their bus ticket to work. Yet Ford stubbornly insists any significant minimum wage increases would shutter businesses and drive higher unemployment.

The problem with this defence is that real-life evidence and real-live economists prove it’s wrong. And if Ford needs an expert second opinion on the matter from a fellow Ontarian, he should consult David Card, the Berkeley university professor who just won the Nobel Prize in economics. The native of Guelph and graduate of Queen’s University, Card was awarded the prestigious honour this week largely for his groundbreaking work into the economic and human impacts that followed minimum-wage increases.

February 1, 2014

Before his research, many economists would have agreed with Ford that boosting wages for some people can make life worse for more by forcing business closures and job losses. If the cost of labour grows too high, the demand for it would drop as many businesses scramble to adapt and some even go bust. Or so went the reasoning — supported for a time by many studies.

But in 1993, Card and the late Alan Krueger challenged conventional theory by looking at what happened to jobs at several New Jersey fast-food restaurants after the state raised its hourly minimum wage from $4.25 (U.S.) to $5.05 (U.S.). After comparing the situation in New Jersey to what was going on at similar fast-food restaurants in neighbouring east Pennsylvania, they concluded the rise in the minimum wage had no effect on the number of people being employed.

In response to skeptical colleagues, Card launched another study in 2000 using new information. His findings were the same. And over time, he won over most of the doubters to his viewpoint. There are still vigorous debates over how governments should manage minimum-wage legislation. But the prevailing opinion of economists is that moderate and gradually introduced wage increments benefit low-wage employees, do not cost jobs and help reduce poverty.

October 18, 2006

In fact, Premier Ford should already know this. After the previous Liberal government raised the hourly minimum wage from $11.60 to $14 in 2018, he railed against what he called “a failed Liberal policy that is driving jobs and investment out of Ontario. It’s equal to the carbon tax when it comes to job killing.” The Ontario Chamber of Commerce was of the same mind and issued dire warnings of economic devastation to come.

Six months after the Liberal minimum-wage hike, however, Ontario’s unemployment rate had dropped to 5.4 per cent, the lowest it had been since 2000. Meanwhile, business profits in the province had risen while its annual inflation rate was running at a modest 2.2 per cent.

Let’s hope the worldwide publicity surrounding Prof. Card’s Nobel Prize will push Ford and the Progressive Conservatives to rethink a minimum wage policy that has so widely been discredited. In its place should be a minimum wage that rises annually and matches wage growth across the provincial workforce. It’s time for a minimum wage based on maximum wisdom. (Hamilton Spectator Editorial) 

 

Wednesday August 25, 2021

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Wednesday August 25, 2021

Top epidemiologist resigns from Ontario’s COVID-19 science table, alleges withholding of ‘grim’ projections

Young Doug Ford: The Series

One of Ontario’s most vocal epidemiologists has resigned from the province’s COVID-19 Science Advisory Table, alleging the group has delayed publication of its pandemic projections for the fall due to political interference — a charge the table has denied.

Dr. David Fisman, a professor of epidemiology at the University of Toronto’s Dalla Lana School of Public Health, announced on Twitter on Monday morning that he would step down from the table, posting a letter of resignation he sent to table co-chair Dr. Adalsteinn Brown.

Fisman said that while he had “mixed emotions” about resigning, he had been “repeatedly dissenting publicly from table guidance,” adding that Ontario “needs a public health system that is arm’s length from politics.”

“I find myself increasingly uncomfortable with the degree to which political considerations appear to be driving outputs from the tables, or at least the degree to which these outputs are shared in a transparent manner with the public,” he wrote.

“I do not wish to remain in this uncomfortable position, where I must choose between placid relations with colleagues on the one hand, and the necessity of speaking the truth during a public health crisis on the other.”

The letter did not include any specifics about the alleged political considerations.

April 8, 2021

Fisman has already been removed from the table’s list of members on its website. 

His resignation comes two days after he tweeted that the science table had “important modelling work that projects a grim fall” and implied its publication had been intentionally delayed.

“I don’t understand why they’re not releasing that. It’s important for people to understand what lies ahead, and what the stakes are,” he wrote. 

The table has strongly refuted that it is purposefully withholding projections for the fall. In a series of tweets from its official account, it said, “There appear to be some rumours that the Science Advisory Table is withholding a consensus model of COVID-19 in the fall. To be absolutely clear, that is not true.”

The table’s statement went on to say that it was currently “working to understand how COVID-19 may affect Ontario in coming months,” which involves integrating and reviewing “many models done by many teams” until there is a “reasonable, scientific consensus.” (CBC) 

 

Thursday July 8, 2021

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Thursday July 8, 2021

First-dose COVID-19 vaccinations plateau across Canada, threatening path to variant resilience

The number of people getting their first COVID-19 vaccine doses is plateauing across the country, heightening the need to target harder-to-reach groups if Canada is going to achieve the vaccination levels needed to control the spread of infection.

May 22, 2021

As of Monday, 78 per cent of those eligible to be vaccinated in Canada have received at least one dose, and 41 per cent were fully vaccinated, making the country one of the most immunized in the world. Among the Group of Seven nations, Canada ranks second next to Britain with the highest number of doses administered per 100 people.

However, within provinces and territories, there are pockets with low vaccination rates across the country.

In the High Level health unit in northern Alberta, for example, 21 per cent of the eligible population had received at least one dose, and in Manitoba, 19 per cent of the eligible population in the municipality of Stanley had received at least one dose.

While the number of people receiving second doses continues to climb, those receiving their first doses have stalled at fewer than 100,000 a day since June 20.

January 30, 2021

With the rise of more transmissible variants, some epidemiologists estimate at least 80 per cent to 90 per cent of the eligible population will need to be fully vaccinated to keep COVID-19 rates under control.

Reaching those levels will be critical as we head into the fall, when people start spending more time indoors again at the same time the highly infectious Delta variant is expected to become the dominant variant of the virus in most of the country, said Cordell Neudorf, professor in the department of community health and epidemiology at the University of Saskatchewan.

“That’s when we expect the next wave to hit, unless we get high enough immunization coverage,” Dr. Neudorf said.

December 11, 2020

Now that those most willing and able to get immunized have received at least one vaccine, health authorities must ramp up their efforts to vaccinate groups that are more difficult to reach, said Nazeem Muhajarine, an epidemiologist and professor of community health and epidemiology at the University of Saskatchewan.

And that will require different targeted approaches, he said, since those who remain unvaccinated are a heterogenous group. They include people who are willing to be vaccinated but have difficulty accessing clinics, individuals who have lingering questions about the safety of vaccines and those who refuse to be vaccinated altogether.

May 8, 2021

The latter, whose refusal is generally ideologically driven, are a minority, making up an estimated 10 per cent of the population, Dr. Muhajarine said. Another 12 per cent to 14 per cent of Saskatchewan adults he has been tracking say they are hesitant about getting vaccinated.

“It’s the hesitant group that we need to be able to convert get a vaccine,” he said. “They’re not saying they would not get one, but they’re also saying they will not readily line up, be the first in line.” (Globe & Mail)