Science

Saturday January 30, 2021

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Saturday January 30, 2021

Fauci calls South Africa-based variant’s resilience a ‘wake-up call.’

Dr. Anthony S. Fauci warned Friday that new clinical trial results from Johnson & Johnson, showing that its vaccine is less effective against a highly infectious variant of the coronavirus circulating in South Africa, were a “wake-up call.” He said the virus will continue to mutate, and vaccine manufacturers will have to be “nimble to be able to adjust readily” to reformulating the vaccines if needed.

March 26, 2020

Dr. Fauci’s warning, at the White House briefing on the virus, comes amid increasing concern about new and more infectious variants of the virus that are emerging overseas and turning up in the United States. This week, officials in South Carolina reported identifying two cases of the variant circulating in South Africa, and officials in Minnesota announced they had found a case of the variant that was first detected in Brazil.

Dr. Rochelle Walensky, the new director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, who was also at the briefing, said another variant, first identified in Britain, has now been confirmed in 379 cases in 29 states. 

She said officials remained concerned about the variants and were “rapidly ramping up surveillance and sequencing activities” to closely monitor them. Unlike Britain, the United States has been conducting little of the genomic sequencing necessary to track the spread of the variants.

August 6, 2020

Dr. Walensky also issued a plea to Americans to continue wearing masks and practice social distancing, and to avoid travel. Earlier this month, the C.D.C. warned that the variant circulating in Britain could become the dominant source of infection in the United States and would likely lead to a surge in cases and deaths that could overwhelm hospitals. And given the speed at which the variant swept through that country, it is conceivable that by April it could make up a large fraction of infections in the United States.

December 11, 2020

“By the time someone has symptoms, gets a test, has a positive result and we get the sequence, our opportunity for doing real case control and contact tracing is largely gone,” she said. “We should be treating every case as if it’s a variant during this pandemic right now.”

Friday’s briefing, the second in what the Biden White House has promised will be thrice-weekly updates on the pandemic, came just hours after Johnson & Johnson reported that while its vaccine was 72 percent effective in the United States, the efficacy rate was just 57 percent in South Africa, where a variant has been spreading. (New York Times) 

 

Saturday January 16, 2021

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Saturday January 16, 2021

Why Doug Ford probably won’t regret expelling this rogue MPP

December 1, 2020

The forces looking to make martyrs out of every single person who faces consequences for foolishness are probably already at work trying to make Roman Baber, the now-independent, formerly Tory MPP for York Centre, into the next saint of free speech. Baber was defenestrated from the Progressive Conservative caucus Friday morning after having released a letter, addressed to the premier, calling for an end to lockdowns — so he’ll undoubtedly be lauded by the conspiracist set. This would be a mistake on their part, but, then, if these people had any ability to navigate the world without making obvious errors, Baber would still be in the PC caucus.

Baber, a lawyer who won the York Centre seat from the Liberals in the 2018 election, had not particularly distinguished himself as an MPP and had a habit of getting attention for the wrong reasons. There was his heckling of former premier Kathleen Wynne, which was so egregious that even the Tory leadership tried to disavow it. Earlier in the pandemic, he advised a constituent that that he could “see [his] parents,” despite the risks to the elderly from COVID-19.

June 15, 2018

The first time Baber appeared on my radar was probably during the ill-fated select committee the Tories convened at Queen’s Park to try to throw a show trial for former Liberal ministers — but especially Wynne. The day Wynne testified at the committee was only ever going to be antagonistic, but Baber’s performance was something else — as I noted at the time, he was so over the top that the chair of the committee (PC MPP Prabmeet Sarkaria) repeatedly told him to knock it off.

June 21, 2019

The select-committee episode wasn’t the PC party’s finest hour in government, but Sarkaria handled the dubious job of chairing that committee well, and now he’s a cabinet minister. Several other MPPs who at least took their jobs seriously that day are either in cabinet or have other substantial positions in the government. Wynne comported herself well, and, years later, even Doug Ford has respectful and kind words to say about the former premier — they are, after all, both members of what’s still a small political club.

Baber chose a different path: he played stupid games and won stupid prizes. And so his career in high-level politics is almost certainly over, at least for a while. Don’t feel too bad for him, though: he’ll get to collect a six-figure paycheque as an MPP until the next election, and, after that, there are always city councils and school boards (where, alas, the profoundly unserious can continue to have long careers further away from the media spotlight). And, if none of that pans out, he’s still a lawyer, though having seen the quality of his arguments, I would suggest that anyone looking for counsel shop around a bit more.

While he probably has friends in caucus who’ll regret his absence at the next meeting, at the higher levels of the Tory leadership, it’s hard to believe he’ll be missed: his primary skill seemed to be grabbing headlines the government came to regret, and his expulsion gives the Tories the opportunity to find someone better able to defend a seat the Liberals could mount a very serious challenge for in 2022. (Continued: John Michael McGrath , TVO) 

 

Wednesday December 9, 2020

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Wednesday December 9, 2020

Fauci Calls Coronavirus Vaccine a Game Changer, Decries Misinformation

Anthony Fauci said a vaccine could diminish coronavirus as successfully as the polio vaccine did for polio, enabling workers to return to offices and restaurants in the second half of 2021.

December 1, 2020

But hurdles exist, the U.S. government’s top infectious-disease expert said. They include people’s hesitancy to get vaccinated, a successful and swift vaccination program, and getting through a rise in Covid-19 cases that is now being fueled in part by misinformation about the virus, Dr. Fauci said at The Wall Street Journal’s CEO Council Summit on Tuesday.

“There are a substantial proportion of people who do think this is not real, that it’s fake news, or it’s a hoax. This is extraordinary. I’ve never seen this before,” he said. Dr. Fauci added that he will convey the following to President-elect Joe Biden’s administration: “We have all got to be on the same page telling the American public we have to pull together. That, to me, is the most important thing.”

Dr. Fauci and Deborah Birx, the White House coronavirus-response coordinator, who also spoke Tuesday at the summit, both reiterated their calls for people to adopt public-health measures to combat the spread of the virus.

August 7, 2020

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recently said the virus infected people in the U.S. in mid-December 2019, a few weeks before it was officially identified in China and about a month earlier than public-health authorities found the first U.S. case. It has since caused almost 15 million diagnosed cases and more than 283,000 deaths. Cases have surged since the fall, with more than 2,000 daily deaths being reported. It is too early to know whether the Thanksgiving holiday will add an additional spurt of cases.

The death toll could surpass 430,000 by March 1, according to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. The Trump administration is aiming to have enough coronavirus vaccine for everyone in the U.S. who wants to take it by the second quarter of 2021.

“We have to go head-to-head with the misunderstandings people have with this virus,” said Dr. Birx, who added that she doesn’t know what role she will have in the president-elect’s administration but will remain in federal government.

Dr. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, was upbeat about the promise of a vaccine to bring coronavirus to heel.

June 17, 2020

Health-care workers and people in nursing homes and extended-care facilities will get the vaccine first, he said, followed by various prioritization levels that are likely to include seniors, people with underlying health conditions and workers with critical jobs, such as teachers.

Dr. Birx also said vaccines need to be prioritized for communities of color that have been hit hard by Covid-19.

Younger people and people with no underlying conditions will likely be able to get the vaccine by the end of March or beginning of April if the vaccination program runs efficiently and the majority of people take the vaccine, Dr. Fauci said. With about 75% of the public inoculated, there should be low levels of circulating virus and a return to workplaces.

The stringency of public-health measures will gradually diminish, he said, and chief executives should use surveillance testing once workers return to quickly identify any potential outbreaks.

“I don’t think we’re going to eradicate [Covid-19] the way we did with smallpox, but I think we can do what we did with polio,” Dr. Fauci said. (Wall Street Journal) 

 

Thursday November 12, 2020

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Thursday November 12, 2020

Doug Ford downloads hardest pandemic decision-making

Being a medical officer of health in an Ontario town or city has always been a big, challenging job. Being the MOH during a pandemic like this one is exponentially harder. Add in being the default decision-maker about what businesses can stay open and which must close, and you’ve got a job not for the faint of heart.

October 28, 2020

That is where Ontario’s medical officers find themselves today, with the provincial government apparently opting for a minimalist approach on pandemic policy at the very time when COVID-19 is spreading dramatically. At this rate, it will soon be out of control. It may already be.

On Wednesday, for the fourth time in five days, Ontario set a record reporting 1,426 new cases. The seven-day average stands at 1,217, the highest it has been since the pandemic began. Another unfortunate record: There are 10,361 active cases of COVID-19 in Ontario. And 92 long-term-care facilities are dealing with outbreaks, with that number expected to grow. Hospitalization rates remain relatively low, but if the current growth rate continues that is likely to change.

All this, even as Ontario labs processed 36,700 test samples, reporting a test positivity rate of 5.1 per cent. Health experts say a positivity rate of 3.0 indicates spread is at the tipping point toward exponential growth.

September 18, 2020

Why the provincial government chose this time to toss out the old pandemic control regime and adopt one that raises the bar on when provincially mandated control measures will be implemented is anyone’s guess. But from all appearances, the Ford government is putting keeping businesses open at the top of its priority list, even when doing so is not in the best interest of pandemic control.

When questioned about all this, Premier Doug Ford was quick point out that local public health authorities always have the option of imposing measures over and above the provincial guidelines. 

August 27, 2020

That stance puts municipal governments and their public health officers between a rock and a hard place. If you don’t believe that, ask local political and health officials in Peel Region and in Toronto. Both have implemented local lockdown measures because provincial measures were deemed insufficient under current circumstances.

Indoor dining and gyms, for example, are locked down for 28 days in both those jurisdictions. But now, instead of suffering businesspeople being angry with the province, they’re angry with local health officials and their municipal partners. 

May 16, 2020

In a way, this could be referred to as a new kind of provincial downloading. And like other forms of downloading, they serve the provincial government with little regard for the impact on municipalities and local health officials.

There is something to be said for the targeted approach to pandemic control. It is better overall than a one-size-fits all provincial solution, though it’s not perfect. But it does allow the provincial government to deflect responsibility for harsher lockdown measures.

Ontario is not in a good place in terms of controlling the spread of COVID-19. And that’s the cruelest paradox of all. Too many of us are sick and tired of pandemic restrictions on personal freedoms and commerce, so we slack off here and there, and the virus is ready and waiting for the opportunity. Now we are in the thick of the second wave, which is in many ways worse than the first. If we remain on the current trajectory, the most likely outcome is another hard lockdown like we experienced early in the pandemic. The Ford government won’t be able to dodge that bullet, and neither will the rest of us. (Hamilton Spectator Editorial) 

 

Saturday October 31, 2020

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Saturday October 31, 2020

Biden’s Call for ‘National Mask Mandate’ Gains Traction in Public Health Circles

October 10, 2020

As the nation heads into what public health experts are calling a “dark winter” of coronavirus illness and death, public health experts are coalescing around Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s call for a “national mask mandate,” even as they concede such an effort would require much more than the stroke of a presidential pen.

Over the past week, a string of prominent public health experts — notably Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the government’s top infectious disease specialist, and Dr. Scott Gottlieb, a former commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration under President Trump — have said it is time to seriously consider a national mandate to curb the spread of the virus.

Overseas this week, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia became the latest foreign leader to impose a national mandate for citizens to wear masks. Mr. Trump is opposed to a mandate, and Mr. Biden has conceded that a presidential order for all Americans to wear masks would almost certainly face — and most likely fall to — a legal challenge.

March 6, 2020

Mr. Biden, the Democratic presidential nominee, echoed the “dark winter” language during the most recent presidential debate, and he is already using his bully pulpit to promote and reinforce a culture of mask wearing. If elected, he will almost certainly do more.

Mr. Biden has already said that, as president, he would mandate masks on all federal property, an executive order that could have wide reach. He could use his authority under federal transit law to require masks on public transportation. He could also prod governors who are resisting mask mandates to at least require masks in public buildings in their states.

But that is delicate terrain in the United States, where Mr. Trump has turned the act of wearing or not wearing a mask into a political statement. Public health and legal experts say it would be far better for Mr. Biden — or Mr. Trump, for that matter — to use his powers of persuasion to convince Americans that covering one’s face to curb the spread of the virus is a patriotic or civic-minded action.

“Instead of making it about the president’s coercive authority under law it should be about whether the president can support a norm that supports public health, which is in people’s self interest,” said Harold Hongju Koh, a law professor at Yale University and an expert in national security and human rights.

Mr. Trump, however, has shown little interest in supporting such norms. At a rally on Wednesday in Arizona, he mocked California’s mask mandate, saying, “You have to eat through the mask.” (New York Times)