slaughter

Friday December 13, 2019

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Friday December 13, 2019

Conservatives face an awkward question: What if Scheer wasn’t the problem?

On the simplest level, Andrew Scheer was merely a political leader who failed — a politician who made too many mistakes and suffered self-inflicted wounds that cut too deep.

Andrew Scheer Gallery

The larger legacy of his time as Conservative leader may end up being that of a politician who saw the times pass him by  — yesterday’s man, his ideas and positions out of step with a significant majority of voters.

But that depends on where his party and Canadian politics go next.

Scheer’s sudden (but not entirely surprising) exit on Thursday was quickly accompanied by reports that the Conservative Party had somehow been covering part of the cost of his children’s education at a private school. That might not seem like a problem in and of itself, at least not a significant one.

But Scheer had just spent an election campaign pitching himself as a middle-class everyman, a stark contrast to an affluent and privileged Liberal leader — a prime minister Scheer and other Conservatives had ridiculed  for using the budget of his official residence to hire nannies.

The matter of financial assistance also fits a pattern.

Late in this fall’s campaign, Scheer had to admit that he was a dual citizen of Canada and the United States — despite having previously questioned the dual citizenship of former governor general Michaëlle Jean.

That revelation came shortly after Scheer was compelled to admit that he had not been licensed as an insurance broker, despite having claimed to have worked as a broker before entering politics (he also had only worked in an insurance office for six or seven months).

While all of this was going on, the Conservatives were still loudly insisting that Justin Trudeau was “not as advertised.”

Scheer’s struggles were not limited to contradictions. He wouldn’t — or couldn’t — account for his previously stated views on same-sex marriage. He never found a way to explain why he wouldn’t march in a Pride parade. And during the first televised leaders’ debate, he was noticeably reluctant to acknowledge to that he was personally opposed to abortion.

Scheer’s campaign became a personal identity crisis. And then he failed to defeat a vulnerable opponent. (Continued: CBC) 

 

Saturday October 12, 2019

October 12, 2019

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Saturday October 12, 2019

Odds of a minority government rise, Liberal chances drop as Bloc surges in polls

Who had a Bloc resurgence on their federal election bingo card?

The campaign has seen one bizarre twist after another without any apparent impact on the polls — until now. This latest twist is a little retro. The Bloc Québécois, pronounced all but dead after 2011, has been reanimated and could significantly upend the election plans of the Liberals and Conservatives.

CBC Poll Tracker for October 15, 2019

The CBC Poll Tracker shifted suddenly in its latest update, with the Bloc’s gains in Quebec erasing the solid seat advantage the Liberals enjoyed over the Conservatives.

Since the beginning of this campaign, the Liberals had been favoured to win more seats than the Conservatives, regardless of which party was ahead in the national polling average. This was being driven in part by the party’s enduring edge in Ontario — but it was Quebec that made the difference.

October 10, 2015

Liberal support in Quebec has hovered around the 36 per cent mark the party hit in 2015. Because of the wide gap separating the Liberals from the other parties in Quebec, however, they could count on winning about 50 seats in the province, a net gain of 10 over the last election’s results.

But now, at just under 34 per cent, Liberal support is looking softer in Quebec. The Bloc, meanwhile, has picked up seven points in the last 10 days and has moved into second place in the province, with 27 per cent support.

That has dropped the Liberals into the mid-30s in the seat projection for Quebec, nearly tied with the Bloc Québécois. The Conservatives also have slipped and appear to be on track to win around 10 seats in Quebec, down from the 12 they took in 2015.

There is also now only a 25 per cent chance that either party can win a majority of seats.

The Bloc has been eating into the support of the Liberals, Conservatives and Greens in Quebec, though the seat impact has primarily been felt by the Liberals. That’s because the Conservative base of support in Quebec is concentrated around the Quebec City area, where polls suggest the party still holds a lead.

Not helping matters for the Liberals is the fact that the New Democrats appear to be building up some momentum of their own after a strong performance by NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh in Monday’s English-language debate. After posting poll numbers that would have given them about 15 seats nationwide, they are now projected to win around 24 seats.

So the coming week could prove to be decisive. After nearly five sleepy weeks, voters are wide awake and feeling volatile. Blink and you might miss the next twist. (CBC) 

 

Thursday January 26, 2017

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Thursday January 26, 2017

Why President Trump might not be the worst for Canada

Yes, the Donald Trump presidency is going to be bad. Yes, it might be a disaster. But it won’t necessarily be a disaster for Canada.

Consider Canada-U.S. trade. President Trump talks like he believes global trade is a form of war, and every day he threatens to start one. Canada is an exceptionally trade-dependent economy, and almost all of our trade is with the United States. Many of our industries have integrated, cross-border production chains. If President Trump wages trade war against any and all imports, Canada is going to suffer catastrophic collateral damage.

But much more likely, as Blackstone CEO and Trump economic adviser Stephen Schwarzman told Canadian government officials on Monday, is that the President will go after countries running big trade surpluses. That means China. It also means Mexico, which Mr. Trump consistently portrays as a stealer of jobs and exporter of illegal aliens. As a result, NAFTA is almost certainly doomed. 

But if NAFTA disappears or is sent into the limbo of renegotiation, the earlier Canada-U.S. free-trade agreement still stands, and still protects much (though not all) of Canada’s trade access. Given that Canada-U.S. trade is relatively balanced – Canada runs a small trade surplus with the U.S. when oil prices are high, and a deficit when they’re low – it’s unlikely that the Trump administration is going to want to make Canada a priority target.

Visibly steamrolling the Mexican economy will be popular with many voters from both parties. Ditto a trade fight with China. But attacking Canada? There’s no economic logic to it. Nor would there be much domestic political upside in starting a trade war with the place Americans consistently call their most admired foreign country.

Bottom line: The end of NAFTA is not a good thing. However, if the Trump administration stops there, it would mean a big hit for Mexico, but a relatively small hit for the Canadian economy. (Source: Globe & Mail)