statistics

Friday July 10, 2020

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Friday July 10, 2020

Fauci says he hasn’t briefed Trump in two months as Covid-19 cases rise

June 3, 2020

Donald Trump says Dr Anthony Fauci is “a nice man, but he’s made a lot of mistakes”. Fauci says he last saw Trump on 2 June and has not briefed him in two months.

The president was speaking to the Fox News host Sean Hannity. The most senior non-political member of the White House coronavirus taskforce and America’s top public health expert was having lunch with the Financial Times.

Meanwhile, nearly 3.2 million coronavirus cases have been recorded in the US and almost 133,000 people have died. More than 60,000 new cases were confirmed on Thursday, the latest in a succession of unwelcome records.

April 29, 2020

States which reopened early, Arizona, Texas and Florida prominent among them, are facing steep rises in cases and crushing pressure on testing and hospital beds. Early hotspots, such as California, New York and New Jersey, are pausing or modifying reopening, or considering re-entering lockdown.

“I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say we have a serious ongoing problem, right now, as we speak,” Fauci said. “What worries me is the slope of the curve. It still looks like it’s exponential.”

He continued: “I think we have to realise that some states jumped ahead of themselves. Other states did it correctly. But the citizenry didn’t listen to the guidelines and they decided they were going to stay in bars and go to congregations of crowds and celebrations.”

March 26, 2020

Fauci put that down, in part, to a very American problem with authority. It is one the president seems to share.

“A lot of them said don’t wear a mask, don’t wear a mask,” Trump told Hannity about advisers including Fauci. “Now they are saying wear a mask. A lot of mistakes were made, a lot of mistakes.”

Many observers charge that Trump has made them, by refusing to wear a mask or consider a national mandate and by declining to “listen to my experts” in general. The president told Fox News he would probably wear a mask to visit Walter Reed hospital on Saturday. But he also mocked Joe Biden, his presumptive opponent in November, for wearing a “massive” mask in public.

COVID-19 Cartoons

Before bad weather intervened, Trump had been due to stage a rally in New Hampshire this weekend, although in the open air rather than in an indoor arena as in Tulsa, Oklahoma last month. Public health authorities said that event contributed to a surge in cases.

To Hannity, Trump said: “We have cases all over the place. Most of the cases immediately get better, they are people, young people, they have sniffles and two days later they are fine and they are not sick to start.”

That was an echo of his claim last week that 99% of Covid-19 cases are “totally harmless”. (The Guardian) 

 

Wednesday June 3, 2020

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Wednesday June 3, 2020

The Protests Will Spread the Coronavirus

The wave of mass protests across the United States will almost certainly set off new chains of infection for the novel coronavirus, experts say.

May 29, 2020

The virus seems to spread the most when people yell (such as to chant a slogan), sneeze (to expel pepper spray), or cough (after inhaling tear gas). It is transmitted most efficiently in crowds and large gatherings, and research has found that just a few contagious people can infect hundreds of susceptible people around them. The virus can spread especially easily in small, cramped places, such as police vans and jails.

As such, for the past several days, the virus has found new environments in which to spread across the United States. At least 75 cities have seen widespread demonstrations and social unrest as Americans have gathered to protest systemic racism and the killing of George Floyd, the black man who died last week under the knee of a Minneapolis police officer. Dozens of cities imposed curfews over the weekend amid widespread looting. It has been among the most turbulent moments of societal upheaval in the U.S. since the assassination of Martin Luther King Jr. in 1968.

The pandemic and unrest together have trapped the country in a bind. The demonstrations oppose police brutality. But peaceful, masked protesters—and the journalists covering them—have sometimes been met with an overly aggressive police response.

“I don’t think there’s a question of whether there will be spikes in cases in 10 to 14 days,” Mark Shrime, a public-health researcher at Harvard, told me. “With so many protests happening, that are getting so much bigger, I don’t think it’s a question of if, but when and where.”

Coronavirus cartoons

Maimuna Majumder, a computational epidemiologist at Boston Children’s Hospital and Harvard Medical School, agrees. “All things considered, there’s little doubt that these protests will translate into increased risk of transmission for COVID-19,” she told me by email.

Yet that risk does not lead Majumder to oppose the protests. “I personally believe that these particular protests—which demand justice for black and brown bodies that have been brutalized by the police—are a necessary action,” she said. “Structural racism has been a public-health crisis for much longer than the pandemic has.” Even the COVID-19 pandemic has harmed black people disproportionately, Majumder told me. While about 13 percent of Americans are black, a quarter of all COVID-19 deaths where the victim’s race is known have befallen black people, according to the COVID Racial Data Tracker.

Alexandra Phelan, a professor of global-health law at Georgetown University, also told me she believed that the protests were justifiable, even amid the public-health crisis. She drew a difference between these protests, against police brutality, and the protests earlier this spring, which opposed mask mandates and social-distancing rules. At the very least, she said, many protesters this weekend were wearing masks, reducing the risk of transmission to the community. (The Atlantic) 

 

Wednesday April 1, 2020

 

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Wednesday April 1, 2020

Breaking down the COVID-19 numbers

Coronavirus cartoons

In a little more than two months, SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, raced around the world and turned a handful of known cases to more than three quarters of a million, with at least 36,000 lives lost – reported figures that the scientific and health communities widely agree are too low.

The spreading virus has pushed numerous countries to scramble to lock down cities, shutter non-essential businesses, and close their borders to all but their own citizens, adopting some of the extraordinary measures executed in China that might have previously been unthinkable elsewhere.

Researchers and armchair epidemiologists alike are analyzing the trove of data to create models, find patterns and clues on whether curves are being flattened, which country is on a faster or slower trajectory, why death rates and ages vary, what measures seemed to work, and when the pandemic might end.

The flood of numbers and questions they raise can be overwhelming for the average person trying to make sense of the data.

Epidemiologists and an infectious disease expert who spoke with CTVNews.ca said it was too early to make predictions or draw conclusions from the data, but stressed the importance of understanding the context surrounding the numbers. 

While most of the focus has been on the daily tally of new cases, epidemiologists say that other data points are more useful.

Cynthia Carr, a Winnipeg-based epidemiologist with two decades of experience interpreting and developing protocols for gathering and analyzing health data, said the daily focus on new cases can be a distraction and spark unnecessary panic.

“[The public was] not listening to the information. They were in a store with 1,000 people at Costco buying toilet paper” when that was the last place they should be, said Carr.

The total number of tests administered, infections, hospitalizations, intensive care patients, and deaths are all key indicators for different reasons, explained Erin Strumpf, an epidemiologist and associate professor at McGill University.

“It’s more about the rate of change in those numbers than it is about the actual numbers on a given day,” she said.

The mortality and hospitalization rates – and whether they are increasing or decreasing over time – gives more context and balance to the data, Carr noted.

“You should never just look at one piece of information,” Carr said.

“I have said from the beginning, when we increase our testing capacity, you would quickly see an increase in cases… we’re getting more of an accurate denominator, an accurate representation of the number of people with the illness.” (CTV) 

 

Friday November 2, 2018

By Graeme MacKay, Editorial Cartoonist, The Hamilton Spectator – Friday November 2, 2018

Statistics Canada’s request for banking data of 500,000 Canadians provokes privacy investigation

June 22, 2010

Federal privacy commissioner Daniel Therrien says he is investigating Statistics Canada’s request for private banking information on 500,000 Canadians.

Therrien said Wednesday that numerous people have complained to his office about the agency’s effort to gather detailed information on transactions held by Canadian financial institutions, from cash-machine withdrawals to credit-card payments to account balances.

The formal investigation will include an examination of the requests Statistics Canada has made to businesses in multiple industries for data they collect on their customers and business partners, he said.

Canada’s chief statistician, Anil Arora, said traditional methods of gathering data aren’t good enough to measure Canada’s economy and changes in society.

February 17, 2014

“More than 75 per cent of purchases are conducted online by Canadians and Statistics Canada has to have access to these data in order to provide all Canadians with the timely and quality statistics they need in areas such as housing and debt and the impacts of transitioning to a gig economy,” Arora said.

Therrien’s last report to Parliament mentioned Statistics Canada’s growing reliance on “administrative data sources,” mainly information collected by businesses about their customers. Many of those businesses have contacted the privacy commissioner to make sure that sharing it is OK, his report said.

Therrien suggested that wherever possible, Statistics Canada should tell the companies involved to strip names and identifying information from the data before sending it over.

August 23, 2016

“To ensure transparency, we recommended StatCan let the Canadian public know how and why it is increasing its collection of data from administrative and other non-traditional sources,” the report said.

Arora said the privacy commissioner was consulted as Statistics Canada planned its pilot project on financial data, but added he has asked Therrien to take a second look.

Statistics Canada can compel businesses to supply a wide range of data.

“I understand the concerns that Canadians have and want to assure them that their personal information is carefully protected and never shared publicly,” Arora said.(Source: Hamilton Spectator) 

Link to Cartoon on TheSpec.com. 

 

Thursday November 19, 2015

By Graeme MacKay, Editorial Cartoonist, The Hamilton Spectator - Thursday November 19, 2015 Fact Check: Will the return of the long-form census save money? The voluntary process actually cost an additional $22 million. Making it mandatory will actually make it less expensive, (and) it will be on budget and on time." -- Economic Development Minister Navdeep Bains The Trudeau Liberals, in one of their first acts in government, brought back the long-form census. Bains proclaimed the decision wouldn't cost taxpayers anything more than what is already budgeted for the 2016 census. Indeed, the minister, who oversees Statistics Canada, said taxpayers are likely to save some cash with the return of the mandatory, long-form census. Will Statistics Canada save money with the return of the mandatory questionnaire? Spoiler alert: The Canadian Press Baloney Meter is a dispassionate examination of political statements culminating in a ranking of accuracy on a scale of "no baloney" to "full of baloney" (complete methodology through this link). http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/fact-check-will-the-return-of-the-long-form-census-save-money-1.2654881 This one receives a finding of "a little baloney" -- it is largely accurate about the mandatory census costing less than the voluntary survey, but there are details missing that would help determine the actual savings figure. The government will save money because the mandatory survey is less costly to administer than the voluntary version, experts say. "There are at least a couple of significant reasons why there would be savings" Fellegi said. "I mean, not gobs of money, but savings." The savings start with the number of people hired to help with the census. For the 2016 census, Statistics Canada is hiring 1,400 people for the data centre that processes responses. Statistics Canada needs all those bodies to handle answers and followup with Canadians who don't fill in the form either because they didn't want to, forgot to, or mi

By Graeme MacKay, Editorial Cartoonist, The Hamilton Spectator – Thursday November 19, 2015

Fact Check: Will the return of the long-form census save money?

The voluntary process actually cost an additional $22 million. Making it mandatory will actually make it less expensive, (and) it will be on budget and on time.” — Economic Development Minister Navdeep Bains

Thursday, September 19, 2013The Trudeau Liberals, in one of their first acts in government, brought back the long-form census.

Bains proclaimed the decision wouldn’t cost taxpayers anything more than what is already budgeted for the 2016 census. Indeed, the minister, who oversees Statistics Canada, said taxpayers are likely to save some cash with the return of the mandatory, long-form census.

Will Statistics Canada save money with the return of the mandatory questionnaire?

Spoiler alert: The Canadian Press Baloney Meter is a dispassionate examination of political statements culminating in a ranking of accuracy on a scale of “no baloney” to “full of baloney” (complete methodology through this link).

This one receives a finding of “a little baloney” — it is largely accurate about the mandatory census costing less than the voluntary survey, but there are details missing that would help determine the actual savings figure.

The government will save money because the mandatory survey is less costly to administer than the voluntary version, experts say.

“There are at least a couple of significant reasons why there would be savings” Fellegi said. “I mean, not gobs of money, but savings.”

The savings start with the number of people hired to help with the census. For the 2016 census, Statistics Canada is hiring 1,400 people for the data centre that processes responses.

By Graeme MacKay, Editorial Cartoonist, The Hamilton Spectator - Tuesday November 17, 2015 Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says Canada will "do its part" in the military fight against ISIS, but remains committed to withdrawing warplanes from the mission. During a news conference at the G20 summit in Antalya, Turkey, Trudeau said Friday's attacks in Paris will not prompt the government to reverse course on a plan to pull out Canada's fighter jets. Instead, Canada will step up training of local troops, he said. "I know that Canada will continue to, and be seen to be continuing to, do its part in the fight against this terrorist scourge," he said. The Liberal platform during the campaign for the recent federal election committed to end the combat mission and "refocus" on training local forces in Iraq. Trudeau said that commitment remains, but he has not set a timetable for when Canada will withdraw from the U.S.-led air combat mission. "We made a clear commitment in the campaign to stop the bombing mission by Canadian jets and replace it with a role for Canada that is still a serious military role, but leaned more towards training of local troops to be able to bring the fight directly to ISIL," he said, referring to the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). "That's the commitment we made very clearly throughout the campaign and we have a mandate to do that." On Sunday, two of Canada's fighter jets were involved in a strike against an ISIS fighting position in Iraq, according to the Department of National Defence. The G20 leaders released a joint statement at the G20 summit, calling the attacks in Paris "an unacceptable affront to all humanity" and reaffirming solidarity in the fight against terrorism as a major priority. The statement says counterterror actions must be part of a comprehensive approach that includes fighting radicalization and recruitment, hampering terrorist movements and preventing terrorists from exploiting the internet. "The direct or ind

Statistics Canada needs all those bodies to handle answers and followup with Canadians who don’t fill in the form either because they didn’t want to, forgot to, or misplaced it. Doug Norris, who spent nearly 30 years at Statistics Canada, said the agency will need fewer bodies with a mandatory survey going to fewer homes.

“Followup is extremely expensive,” Norris said.

The return of the mandatory long-form census is likely to cause some savings over at Statistics Canada. Just how much is tough to say. For that reason, the statement of savings has “a little baloney” — the statement is mostly accurate, but more information would be helpful to determine how much the agency will save.

There could also be wider economic benefits from the return of the long-form census: Better quality data could reduce costs for municipalities and school boards, for instance, when it comes to planning for future growth, said Kevin Milligan, an economist at the University of British Columbia.

And Charles Beach, a retired economics professor at Queen’s University, said that kind of data is worth it even if the 2016 census ends up costing more than the 2011 version. (Source: CTV News)