Super Tuesday

Friday March 6, 2020

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Friday March 6, 2020

Biden’s older voters are showing up. Sanders’ young voters aren’t

March 3, 2020

Super Tuesday was not so super for Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. He lost most of the states up for grabs, and it’s quite possible that he’ll end up with fewer delegates on the evening than chief rival former Vice President Joe Biden. 

Sanders’ struggles reflect an inability to connect with older voters, while at the same time failing to generate large youth turnout.

We saw a very familiar age gap across the Super Tuesday states. Sanders crushed it with younger voters. Looking across all the contests with an exit poll, Sanders won an astounding 61% to Biden’s 17% among voters under 30 years old. He even beat Biden by 20 points (43% to 23%) among those between 30 years old and 44 years old.

January 20, 2016

Sanders, however, struggled mightily with older voters. Biden won by 22 points (42% to 20%) with voters 45 years old to 64 years old. With senior citizens (those 65 years and older), Sanders managed to come in third with 15% (behind Biden’s 48% and former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg’s 19%).

Now you might be tempted to look at those numbers and see that Sanders won those under 45 years old by more than he lost those 45 years and older.

The problem for Sanders is the under 45 group make up a smaller piece of the pie. In no Super Tuesday state with an exit poll did those under 45 years old make up more than 42% of voters. Those under 45 years old were just 35% of the electorate in the median state.

The lack of younger voters in the electorate is, of course, usually the case. Those under 45 years old make up the minority of Democratic primary voters in 2016 as well. Sanders’ theory of the case, though, is his that candidacy can generate youth turnout.

A look at the results on Tuesday night suggests that he failed to do so.

The lack of strong youth turnout didn’t stop Sanders from his big win Nevada earlier this month. Unfortunately for Sanders, he did 4 points, 6 points and 7 points worse on Super Tuesday compared to Nevada among those 18-29 years old, 30-44 years old and 45-64 years old respectively. He actually did 3 points better among seniors on Super Tuesday than in Nevada, but Biden more than compensated for that by doing 19 points better with those 65 years and older.

Indeed, Biden did better in every age category on Tuesday compared to Nevada as he became the clear alternative to Sanders.

Going forward, the math is simple enough for Sanders. He’s either gotta win more votes from those voters who regularly turn out, or he’ll need to bring more young people to the polls. Failure to do so will result in a Biden nomination. (CNN)

The challenges of getting a caricature right. Below, shown using an iPad, captures the struggle I had drawing Bernie Sanders for the March 6, 2020 editorial cartoon. It’s maybe the 6th or 7th time I’ve ever drawn him, and despite he may have reached the final chapter of his political life (post Super Tuesday 2020), I think it’s my best drawing of him.

 

Tuesday March 3, 2020

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Tuesday March 3, 2020

Here’s What’s at Stake in Super Tuesday States

Sketch from the CBS News Democratic Party Candidates Debate, Charleston, South Carolina, February 25, 2020.
Michael Bloomberg, Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, Tom Steyer

The contests on Tuesday may be the single most important day on the primary calendar, with the potential to elevate one candidate as a decisive front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination.

If one Democrat — most likely Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont — builds a wide lead of several hundred delegates over the rest of the field, it could become exceedingly difficult for other candidates to catch up over the remaining three months of primary elections.

But it is by no means certain that Mr. Sanders or anyone else will establish a controlling advantage on Super Tuesday, and former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. is hopeful that a late surge of momentum will keep the final margin close.

The vast diversity of the country and the internal divisions of the Democratic Party will be on display across a landscape of elections that covers the swollen suburbs of the Mid-Atlantic and the Sun Belt; traditional Democratic strongholds in New England and the Upper Midwest; the booming cities of the upper South and the interior West, and large rural stretches across both regions.

For any one candidate to dominate that map would be an extraordinary show of strength.

Super Tuesday 2012

It is the closest we will get, in this long campaign season, to a national day of voting in the nomination race. But the balance of influence on Super Tuesday is weighted toward the West, represented by huge states like California and Texas. Other big population centers in the country — electoral prizes like Florida, Michigan, New York, Pennsylvania and Illinois — are still weeks from voting.

Mr. Sanders is highly likely to come out of Super Tuesday with a lead in the delegate count. But the size of that lead is a big question mark, and so is the number of states Mr. Sanders might win outright.

July 31, 2019

There are few states out of reach for Mr. Sanders. In theory, he could win virtually everywhere on Super Tuesday, except perhaps Alabama, where moderate African-Americans who lean toward Mr. Biden make up a huge share of the primary electorate.

The Vermont senator has even been showing strength in Massachusetts, the home state of his rival, Senator Elizabeth Warren. He also has a chance of capturing Minnesota, which is now up for grabs after Senator Amy Klobuchar decided to exit the race on Monday. Mr. Sanders won the state in 2016.

The most important target for Mr. Sanders is California, where his campaign hopes not just to win, but to win by such a dominant margin that he captures a vast majority of delegates. If Mr. Sanders managed that feat, he could open a nearly insurmountable delegate lead.
 
Yet Mr. Sanders’s strength depends on his political opposition staying fractured. If moderate voters or African-Americans coalesce around just one or two other candidates — Mr. Biden may be the likeliest rallying point — then Mr. Sanders could end up with a shorter list of victories, concentrated in Western states where his coalition of young liberals and Latinos is strongest.
 

February 11, 2020

The race began to take a dramatic turn on Sunday after former Mayor Pete Buttigieg dropped out, clearing the way for moderate voters to coalesce around candidates who may be better positioned to stop Mr. Sanders. The exits of both Mr. Buttigieg and Ms. Klobuchar could lift Mr. Biden’s political fortunes on Tuesday, but might also benefit Ms. Warren and Michael R. Bloomberg.

Mr. Biden received the big victory in South Carolina that he was looking for, but it remains to be seen how much of a lift he will get heading into Super Tuesday. One problem: Until this past weekend, he had not campaigned in a Super Tuesday state in over a month, aside from fund-raising.

May 11, 2012

After his fourth-place finish in Iowa and his fifth-place finish in New Hampshire, Mr. Biden planted himself in Nevada and then in South Carolina — and he achieved the results he was looking for in those two states. But that came at the cost of campaigning elsewhere. He visited North Carolina, Alabama and Virginia this past weekend, and he is campaigning in Texas on Monday before heading to California.

Mr. Biden’s team is focusing on congressional districts that play to his strengths, such as those with large numbers of black voters.

Mr. Biden’s operation on the ground across the Super Tuesday states is also conspicuously thin. He has only a single office in California and four in Texas. By comparison, Mr. Bloomberg’s campaign says it has 24 offices in California and 19 in Texas.

February 6, 2008

Still, Mr. Biden has some significant advantages heading into Tuesday’s contests. He emerged triumphant from the South Carolina primary, which provided him with a burst of positive attention, and the endorsements from Ms. Klobuchar and Mr. Buttigieg offered a signal to moderate voters to embrace his candidacy. Mr. Biden already had a long roster of prominent endorsers in Super Tuesday states, which has grown even larger in recent days.

He is also relying on his status as a household name and the goodwill that remains among Democrats from his time serving as President Barack Obama’s vice president. (NYTimes) 

 

Wednesday March 7, 2012

By Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator, Wednesday March 7, 2012

Super Tuesday voters have their say in GOP race

Mitt Romney is angling to solidify his front-runner status and Rick Santorum to keep it a two-man race as voters in 10 states put Super Tuesday’s imprint on the Republican presidential contest. Newt Gingrich just hopes to keep his struggling campaign alive with a strong showing in Georgia.

With Ohio looming large in the Super Tuesday lineup, textbook editor Heather Froelich outside Columbus gave her vote to Romney, saying: “He understands the economy.”

Enthusiasm was in short supply among some of those casting ballots.

Mr. Gingrich got a reluctant vote from Tricia Tetrault, in Edmond, Okla., where she explained her decision this way: “Ronald Reagan wasn’t available any more. What can I say?”

Mr. Santorum got the support of contractor Matt Howells in suburban Cleveland, but Mr. Howells didn’t expect his ballot would count for much.

With 419 delegates at stake around the country, Tuesday’s voting represents a sizable slice of the 1,144 needed to nail down the GOP nomination.

Mr. Romney, who turned back Mr. Santorum in a close contest in Michigan last week, hoped to continue his winning trend. He has won four consecutive contests, including Saturday’s Washington caucuses.

The GOP front-runner, trying to keep his focus on President Barack Obama, used a speech Tuesday before the American Israel Public Affairs Committee to argue he’d be more effective at containing Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Mr. Santorum and Mr. Gingrich, too, addressed the committee and faulted the president’s record on Iran and the Mideast. (Source: Globe & Mail)

 

Wednesday February 6, 2008

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator –  Wednesday February 6, 2008

Canucks catch U.S. election fever

Super Tuesday was a sweet distraction for political animals north of the border as Canadians got caught up in a U.S. electoral fever not felt since John F. Kennedy.Canadian politicians and pundits alike had one eye on streaming TV and online coverage as Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton battled for Democratic support while John McCain and Mitt Romney fought to sway Republicans.

Results from Super Tuesday’s 22-state primary election day – the biggest in U.S. history – help set the stage for November’s presidential election. The outcome could ultimately affect Canada-U.S. relations, a partnership that’s been less than cozy since Jean Chretien compared golf swings with Bill Clinton.

“The prime minister is watching the U.S. campaign with interest,” said Carolyn Stewart Olsen, a spokeswoman for Stephen Harper. “He has not indicated any favourite candidate, nor would he. He looks forward to continuing a good working relationship with the U.S. and whoever is the successful candidate.”

Liberal Leader Stephane Dion planned to watch the results roll in Tuesday night at a pizza party with staff at the Opposition Leader’s Office.

“He won’t pick a favourite,” said spokesman Mark Dunn. “He has been watching all the races closely.”

And around Ottawa, the most die-hard political keeners planned Super Tuesday get-togethers after work. (Toronto Star)