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Thursday June 23, 2016

June 23, 2016 by Graeme MacKay

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Thursday June 23, 2016

Wynne hits new ratings low, poll finds

It’s tough to find a politician more unpopular than Kathleen Wynne.

Donald Trump?

Maybe here in Ontario, but not in his own backyard.

Hillary Clinton?

Like Trump, the Democratic contender for the U.S. presidency is one of the least popular candidates for the job in decades.

But she’s still a rock star compared to Ontario’s premier.

Wynne’s personal popularity has hit an all-time low, according to a new Forum Research poll obtained exclusively by the Toronto Sun.

Her approval rating, once as high as 40%, now sits at 18%. It’s the lowest Forum has ever measured for an Ontario Liberal premier since it began polling in 2001.

In fact, if a provincial election was held tomorrow, Patrick Brown’s Progressive Conservative Party would capture a minority government, according to a the survey.

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator Ð Friday June 11, 2004 Dalton's Approval Rating A poll released this week by SES Research shows that the provincial Liberals have dropped precipitously and are now in second place, with the support of 34 per cent of decided voters - down 15 points from the previous poll - compared with 41 per cent for the Conservatives. (Some 500 randomly chosen Ontarians were surveyed May 29 and 30 for this poll. A sample of this size is accurate within 4.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.) Even worse news in the poll for the provincial Liberals is what it says about McGuinty. He has slipped below lame-duck Conservative Leader Ernie Eves, for goodness' sake, as the voters' top choice for the job of premier. Indeed, McGuinty is running behind even "don't know" in this category, although he is still ahead of NDP Leader Howard Hampton. And only 9 per cent of voters rate McGuinty's performance to date as "good" or "very good" compared with 54 per cent who think it has been "poor" or "very poor.Ó This 9 per cent figure has been misrepresented by other media and by the opposition parties as an "approval rating, " which would represent a historic low for a politician in Canada. (Brian Mulroney's approval rating as prime minister once dropped to just 12 per cent.) But voters were not asked by SES Research whether they "approved" or "disapproved" of McGuinty's performance. Rather, the question posed was: "Based on his performance to date, would you describe the job he has done as very good, good, average, poor or very poor?" Some 32 per cent rated it as "average." It is a big stretch to interpret their answer as "disapproval." Still, the numbers for McGuinty in the SES Research poll are bad enough. (Source: Toronto Star) Ontario, Dalton McGuinty, poll, support, popularity, Liberal, pollster

Friday June 11, 2004
Dalton McGuinty received a similar disapproval rating shortly after he formed his first government. Despite this, he reigned as Premier for another 9 years and won two more elections

“There is no question the Progressive Conservatives would win an election held tomorrow, but it appears they wouldn’t be able to seal the deal with a majority,” Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff said. “Patrick Brown needs to become more of a familiar face to Ontarians before that happens”

The Forum survey projects the Tories would take a 51-seat minority, three seats short of the 54 needed for a majority government in Ontario’s 107-seat legislature. The Liberals would take 36 seats while the NDP would capture 20.

And while Wynne’s personal popularity is low, Brown’s approval doesn’t sit much higher, at 22%, the poll says. Over half of respondents, 53%, said they didn’t know enough about Brown to have an opinion of him.

NDP Leader Andrea Horwath remains the most popular of the three main party leaders, with a 33% approval rating. (Source: Toronto Sun)

Saturday June 13, 2015

June 12, 2015 by Graeme MacKay

Editorial cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Saturday June 13, 2015

Bill C-51 is killing the Liberals’ chance to become the official Not-Harper party

The federal Liberal’s cynical centre-of-the-road support of the Conservatives’ latest anti-terrorism legislation may be hampering its bid to become the Not-Stephen-Harper party.

Tom’s sad days

The signs have been apparent for weeks: Liberal “progressives” — the civic-minded, donating, engaged grassroots types vital to the survival of the party — have found themselves horrified by leader Justin Trudeau’s support for a bill that has been criticized, hyperbolically, as the forerunner to a Canadian police state. The party has faced overwhelming social media criticism from its grassroots, a sudden surge of polls showing the NDP neck-and-neck with the Liberals and the Tories and, lately, there are even more ominous signs of Liberal struggle.

… even sadder days

At least four Liberal candidates have stepped down in recent weeks and some tangential evidence suggests that a backlash over C-51 may be at least part of the reason. Of course, the trend pales in comparison to the handful of high-profile Conservative incumbents who have recently stepped aside ahead of October’s general election. It also happens to be fewer than the number of NDP candidates who have similarly done so — although the Dippers find themselves short due to their unexpected success in Alberta. (Three federal candidates were elected to the provincial legislature in May.)

Justin’s downfall?

While the Alberta bump may be contributing to the federal NDP’s rise in the polls, C-51 may be simultaneously weighing the Liberals down.

The Liberals announced they would support a mildly amended C-51 earlier this year in what was largely thought to be a bid to bolster the party’s flailing national security credentials. Trudeau’s contradictory stance on Canada’s military mission in Iraq and Syria proved to be none too popular among the middle class he’s so arduously trying to court.

But if Trudeau’s objections to Canada’s limited role in quelling revolutionary, genocidal jihadists in Syria and Iraq proved to be — shockingly — un-compelling, his support of C-51 is equally baffling. (Continued… National Post)

Published in The Kelowna Capital News, Grand Falls Advertiser (Newfoundland), The Saskatoon Star-Phoenix, and National Newswatch. Illustrated a piece on the blogsite of David Akin a year later.

Saturday May 2, 2015

May 1, 2015 by Graeme MacKay

Editorial cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Saturday May 2, 2015

Rachel Notley campaign has ‘shades of Jack Layton’

The Alberta NDP is poised for a historic breakthrough, and a lot of that momentum can be credited to the party’s leader Rachel Notley.

An exclusive CBC poll suggests Notley, who was first elected to the Alberta Legislature in 2008, is driving the party’s surge with a strong campaign. She was given the highest approval rating at 53 per cent when Albertans were polled by Return On Insight (ROI).

“Rachel Notley has built this campaign around her. It has shades of Jack Layton, in that she is quite popular and she has a lot of energy,” said ROI president Bruce Cameron.

“Most Albertans, regardless of who they are voting for, would acknowledge the NDP has run the best campaign so far.”

Wildrose Party Leader Brian Jean received a 34 per cent approval rating while Progressive Conservative Leader Jim Prentice sits at 31 per cent.

Notley is taking the latest poll results in stride.

“People are looking for something different. They’re looking for an alternative,” she said. “They’re looking for a government that will reflect their opinions on issues of fairness, on protecting our education and our health care and protecting jobs, so I’m encouraged by what the polls show, but I don’t bank on them and I don’t think most politicians do these days.”

Jean also weighed in on the several polls released in the last 24 hours, while on a campaign stop in Calgary.

“It’s not going to change our principles, which is really the key to this race, because we are the only party that stands up for Alberta’s principles and priorities,” said Jean.

PC Leader Jim Prentice hasn’t commented on the poll results, but used a major fundraising speech Thursday evening to attack the NDP as potential killers of jobs and investment. (Source: CBC News)

Published in The Prince George Citizen, Gull Lake Advance (Saskatchewan), Duncan Citizen (BC), Thunder Bay Chronicle-Journal

Friday June 11, 2004

June 11, 2004 by Graeme MacKay

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Friday June 11, 2004

Dalton’s Approval Rating

A poll released this week by SES Research shows that the provincial Liberals have dropped precipitously and are now in second place, with the support of 34 per cent of decided voters – down 15 points from the previous poll – compared with 41 per cent for the Conservatives.

(Some 500 randomly chosen Ontarians were surveyed May 29 and 30 for this poll. A sample of this size is accurate within 4.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.)

Even worse news in the poll for the provincial Liberals is what it says about McGuinty.

He has slipped below lame-duck Conservative Leader Ernie Eves, for goodness’ sake, as the voters’ top choice for the job of premier. Indeed, McGuinty is running behind even “don’t know” in this category, although he is still ahead of NDP Leader Howard Hampton.

And only 9 per cent of voters rate McGuinty’s performance to date as “good” or “very good” compared with 54 per cent who think it has been “poor” or “very poor.”

This 9 per cent figure has been misrepresented by other media and by the opposition parties as an “approval rating, ” which would represent a historic low for a politician in Canada. (Brian Mulroney’s approval rating as prime minister once dropped to just 12 per cent.)

But voters were not asked by SES Research whether they “approved” or “disapproved” of McGuinty’s performance. Rather, the question posed was: “Based on his performance to date, would you describe the job he has done as very good, good, average, poor or very poor?” Some 32 per cent rated it as “average.” It is a big stretch to interpret their answer as “disapproval.”

Still, the numbers for McGuinty in the SES Research poll are bad enough. (Source: Toronto Star)