The Clash

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Saturday June 22, 2024

* Find an animated version of this cartoon through this link!

Should He Stay or Should He Go? The Trudeau Dilemma

As the summer sun beats down on Parliament Hill, the corridors of power are rife with speculation about Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s future. With his popularity at an all-time low, and an Ipsos poll revealing that 68% of Canadians want him to step down, Trudeau faces a critical juncture in his political career. The situation brings to mind the famous lyrics of The Clash: “Should I stay or should I go?”

According to the Ipsos poll conducted for Global News, Trudeau’s support has plummeted, with only 24% of Canadians backing the Liberals if an election were held tomorrow. In stark contrast, the Conservatives would secure a comfortable victory with 42% of the decided vote. Even within his party, there is a growing chorus of voices suggesting it’s time for Trudeau to step aside to avoid dragging the Liberals down with him. As one Liberal MP put it, “We would be better off changing leaders for the good of our country.”

News: Support for Trudeau nears ‘rock bottom’ as 68% want him to step down: Ipsos

Trudeau’s determination to stay the course is evident. Speaking on the ReThinking podcast, he expressed his commitment to defending his vision for Canada and his legacy, despite having considered stepping down amid personal challenges last year. His supporters argue that Trudeau is a formidable campaigner who thrives under pressure. They believe he can still turn the tide by engaging directly with Canadians and highlighting the government’s policy successes, such as $10-a-day childcare and new healthcare initiatives.

However, the road ahead is fraught with peril. The upcoming by-election in Toronto-St. Paul’s, a traditional Liberal stronghold, is seen as a bellwether for Trudeau’s leadership. A loss here could signal the beginning of the end for his tenure as Prime Minister. As political analyst David Coletto notes, “Not all by-elections matter. Not all have national consequences. But I suspect that a lot of Liberal MPs are watching closely how this result turns out.”

The dilemma facing Trudeau is not unprecedented in Canadian politics. Former Prime Ministers have faced similar crossroads. Brian Mulroney, plagued by declining popularity, chose to step down in 1993, allowing Kim Campbell to lead the Progressive Conservatives to a catastrophic defeat. Conversely, Stephen Harper, despite mounting unpopularity, led the Conservatives into the 2015 election, ultimately losing to Trudeau but preserving his party’s core support.

Analysis: With Trudeau on the ropes, Liberals contemplate the next election with hope and anxiety

The decision to stay and fight or to bow out gracefully is a personal one, often influenced by a leader’s sense of duty and legacy. Trudeau’s predicament echoes that of Kathleen Wynne, the former Ontario Premier who saw her popularity nosedive in the months leading to her 2018 defeat by Doug Ford. Wynne’s experience serves as a cautionary tale for Trudeau: once public sentiment turns decisively negative, it can be nearly impossible to recover.

For Trudeau, the summer of 2024 represents a pivotal moment. He must weigh the risks of leading his party into what promises to be a bruising election against Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives. The potential for a humiliating defeat looms large, yet so does the possibility of a political comeback. His decision will shape not only his legacy but also the future of the Liberal Party.

Political observers and Liberal MPs alike are divided. Some, like Tourism Minister Soraya Martinez Ferrada, believe in Trudeau’s ability to reconnect with voters and lead the party to victory. Others, however, fear that his continued leadership will only exacerbate their electoral woes. As one high-ranking Liberal MP remarked, “If Justin Trudeau loses Toronto-St. Paul’s, I don’t see how he can stay on as leader.”

As Trudeau contemplates his next move, the echoes of “Should I stay or should I go” will undoubtedly resonate throughout his summer. The choice is his alone, but its ramifications will be felt across the political landscape of Canada. Whether he opts to stay and fight or to step aside for a new leader, the coming months will be a defining period for Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party. Politics, after all, is as much about timing as it is about leadership. (AI)