“This is Fine”

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Friday November 8, 2024

Chrystia Freeland’s Assurance on Canada-U.S. Relations Rings Hollow Amid Trump’s Second Term

Canada will be “absolutely fine” under a Trump presidency, according to Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland. But with a federal election likely looming and Donald Trump’s familiar, no-holds-barred approach to trade, defence, and immigration back in the White House, this reassurance from Freeland seems more wishful thinking than grounded in reality.

Certainly, experience matters. Freeland, who was foreign affairs minister during the last round of NAFTA negotiations, has a track record of navigating turbulent waters with the Trump administration. However, the notion that Canada is prepared for what’s coming lacks specifics. If the 2016 election taught Canada anything, it’s that Trump’s promises to “get tough” on trade and protect “American jobs” are more than rhetoric. Trump has now proposed a 10% tariff on all imports, a move the Canadian Chamber of Commerce warns could cut Canadians’ real income by 1.5%, alongside productivity losses on both sides of the border. And yet, Freeland offers few details about her government’s “plan” to defend Canada’s national interest beyond vague commitments to “keep talking” with former Trump officials like Robert Lighthizer.

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While Freeland points to Canada’s robust economic ties with the U.S. as “leverage,” this optimistic view underestimates Trump’s protectionist mindset. Yes, nearly $3.6 billion in trade crosses the Canada-U.S. border daily, but Trump’s “America First” policies historically prioritize American industries, not bilateral partnerships. If there’s one lesson from Trump’s first term, it’s that he doesn’t hesitate to use tariffs as a blunt instrument, even against close allies. Canada’s critical manufacturing, steel, and aluminum industries were hit with tariffs in 2018, and a fresh round of import restrictions could be catastrophic.

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Beyond trade, the Deputy Prime Minister’s optimism seems unfounded on the immigration front. Trump’s renewed promises of mass deportations of undocumented immigrants will likely lead to a surge of asylum-seekers heading north. Canada’s border agencies are under-resourced for such an influx, and recent pressures on immigration and refugee systems indicate that handling a potential spike could overwhelm Canada’s ability to process claims. Freeland’s remarks sidestepped this, despite its likely impact on Canadian cities, social services, and resources.

Then there’s the potential impact on defence and foreign policy. Trump’s insistence that NATO allies, including Canada, “pay their fair share” could reignite tensions within the alliance. With the U.S. pouring billions into defence, Trump has historically expected Canada to increase its contributions. A major defence expenditure would strain Canada’s budget, especially with high inflation and deficits already stretching public resources. Freeland’s assurances may sound good on paper, but funding an increase in military spending without cutting essential services is a tall order, and Canadians should question whether this is a realistic path forward.

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The timing of Freeland’s comments raises even more questions. With a federal election expected within the year, and polls favouring a Conservative government, her reassurances could be more about optics than actionable policy. Pierre Poilievre, the Conservative leader, has yet to articulate a clear approach to dealing with Trump’s “America First” policies, and Canadians don’t yet know if a Poilievre government would chart a collaborative or confrontational course. As voters head to the polls, they deserve a choice: a clear stance from both parties on how each would approach the challenge of a volatile American partner. Freeland’s plan is on the table, but it’s crucial for the Conservatives to offer their own vision, ensuring Canadians have a democratic choice on the future of Canada-U.S. relations.

As it stands, Canadians are left with more questions than answers. Freeland’s “plan” lacks the specifics needed to reassure the public. Canada should be taking proactive measures now—strengthening trade alliances outside the U.S., investing in border security, and preparing resources for a potential refugee surge. Without clear, decisive actions from either side of the political aisle, Freeland’s assurances feel hollow, and Canadians have every right to feel concerned about what lies ahead under Trump’s second term.

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