TPP – mackaycartoons

Wednesday January 24, 2018

January 23, 2018 by Graeme MacKay

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Wednesday January 24, 2018

How the TPP deal injects a new dynamic at NAFTA talks

Canada’s decision to sign onto a major multinational trade agreement without the United States added a dramatic new wrinkle to the NAFTA process Tuesday just as negotiators gathered for a crucial bargaining round.

January 12, 2018

The new Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement brings Canada into a new, sprawling trading bloc with standards not always obviously compatible with the goals of its superpower next-door neighbour.

It allows more content into automobiles from non-free-trade partners like China — at the very moment that the United States is trying to achieve the exact opposite in NAFTA, with tougher rules to keep out Chinese and other Asian parts.

Both supporters and detractors of the TPP pact predicted that this major liberalization of trade in auto parts with Asia will wind up at the NAFTA table somehow.

A Canadian auto-parts lobby group delivered a scathing reaction.

November 14, 2017

Flavio Volpe of Canada’s Auto Parts Manufacturers’ Association said the TPP agreement paves the way for more Chinese content in Canadian cars, at the moment Canada’s most important customer, the U.S., has made clear its goal of reducing Chinese imports.

He said it’s especially problematic in the midst of sensitive NAFTA negotiations.

“This could not be a dumber move at a more important time,” Volpe said in an interview. (Source: CTV)

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Friday December 8, 2017

December 7, 2017 by Graeme MacKay

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Friday December 8, 2017

Trudeau hails ‘substantial progress’ in China but fails to spark formal trade talks

If little else came of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s trade mission to China this week, you can at least be sure of this: Canada’s cattlemen are excited to sell more cow stomachs.

December 5, 2017

For while Trudeau and his coterie of ministers and officials left the country Thursday without proclaiming the anticipated launch of trade talks, there were a few comparative baby steps towards a deeper economic relationship.

Among them was a deal to export more beef and pork, which got John Masswohl of the Canadian Cattlemen’s Association pumped about cashing in on parts of the animal that don’t sell in Canada — including the digestive organs of his bovine commodity.

“We think over the next five years that will be another $125 million in exports for us,” Masswohl said this week, referring not just to the stomachs, but the fresh beef and T-bones he now expects to hit the massive Chinese market.

December 5, 2017

He hastened to add, however, that the government’s broader goal of landing a comprehensive trade deal with the world’s second-largest economy would be even better — for profits, for predictability, for safeguarding against the protectionist impulses of the American president.

Of course, he’s not alone in feeling that way.

Trudeau himself spent much of his time in China extolling the virtues of a trade agreement. In the days before he landed in Beijing, staff from his office framed the trip’s main purpose as a way to ramp up trade and investment with the ever-rising authoritarian powerhouse, and Canada’s industry minister told Global News that the government’s “objective” was to become the first Group of Seven country to launch free trade talks with China. (Continued: Toronto Star)

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Tuesday November 14, 2017

November 13, 2017 by Graeme MacKay

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Tuesday November 14, 2017

Trans-Pacific Trade Partners Are Moving On, Without the U.S.

President Trump shook up the world economic order this year by pulling the United States out of a major international trade pact and raising fundamental questions about its global role.

October 11, 2017

Today, the world is moving on without it.

A group of 11 countries announced on Saturday that they had committed to resurrecting a sweeping multinational trade agreement, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, without the United States. A new deal, which would have to be signed and ratified by each country, would include major United States allies like Japan, Canada and Mexico. Collectively, they account for about a sixth of global trade.

The agreement will “serve as a foundation for building a broader free-trade area” across Asia, Taro Kono, Japan’s foreign minister, said in a statement.

May 24, 2017

Pointedly, the potential members of what is now called the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership came to an early agreement on the broad outline of a deal while many of their leaders were meeting with Mr. Trump in Vietnam — itself a potential member of the new trading group.

Some details of a new deal, including when rules would be phased in, still need to be determined, and prospective member states like Canada raised last-minute concerns. But a new deal could be announced as soon as early next year.

Other countries are slowly but surely making progress on their own sweeping trade deals, without any participation from the United States. China is negotiating a potential deal with 16 Asia-Pacific countries, including Japan, India and South Korea. The European Union and Japan hope to strike separate trade pacts with a group of South American countries, Brazil and Argentina among them.

From tough talk on China (“they took our jobs”) to casting doubt on the decades-old North American Free Trade Agreement (“the worst trade deal ever made”), Mr. Trump has threatened to lob a grenade at an increasingly integrated global economic system. (Continued: New York Times)

Thursday January 26, 2017

January 25, 2017 by Graeme MacKay

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Thursday January 26, 2017

Why President Trump might not be the worst for Canada

Yes, the Donald Trump presidency is going to be bad. Yes, it might be a disaster. But it won’t necessarily be a disaster for Canada.

Consider Canada-U.S. trade. President Trump talks like he believes global trade is a form of war, and every day he threatens to start one. Canada is an exceptionally trade-dependent economy, and almost all of our trade is with the United States. Many of our industries have integrated, cross-border production chains. If President Trump wages trade war against any and all imports, Canada is going to suffer catastrophic collateral damage.

But much more likely, as Blackstone CEO and Trump economic adviser Stephen Schwarzman told Canadian government officials on Monday, is that the President will go after countries running big trade surpluses. That means China. It also means Mexico, which Mr. Trump consistently portrays as a stealer of jobs and exporter of illegal aliens. As a result, NAFTA is almost certainly doomed.

But if NAFTA disappears or is sent into the limbo of renegotiation, the earlier Canada-U.S. free-trade agreement still stands, and still protects much (though not all) of Canada’s trade access. Given that Canada-U.S. trade is relatively balanced – Canada runs a small trade surplus with the U.S. when oil prices are high, and a deficit when they’re low – it’s unlikely that the Trump administration is going to want to make Canada a priority target.

Visibly steamrolling the Mexican economy will be popular with many voters from both parties. Ditto a trade fight with China. But attacking Canada? There’s no economic logic to it. Nor would there be much domestic political upside in starting a trade war with the place Americans consistently call their most admired foreign country.

Bottom line: The end of NAFTA is not a good thing. However, if the Trump administration stops there, it would mean a big hit for Mexico, but a relatively small hit for the Canadian economy. (Source: Globe & Mail)

Thursday November 10, 2016

November 9, 2016 by Graeme MacKay

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Thursday November 10, 2016

Trudeau pledges to work with president-elect Trump

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has congratulated Donald Trump on his stunning upset election win and is pledging to work with the president-elect, saying the two nations have a common goal in the success of their citizens.

In his first comments Tuesday’s U.S. election, upset, Trudeau looked past the months of divisive debate south of the border and stressed what the two countries have in common.

“The relationship between Canada and the United States is based on shared values and shared hopes and dreams and we will always work well together,” the prime minister said in Ottawa.

June 29, 2016

“We are strong because we listen to each other and we respect each other,” he told students gathered at a We Day event.

“I’m going to work with president-elect Trump’s administration as we move forward in a positive way for not just Canadians and Americans but the whole world,” he said.

It was a theme that was also reflected in Trudeau’s official statement on the election and his comments on social media Wednesday as Ottawa awoke to a new and surprising reality in America.

In a statement, the prime minister said that his government looks forward to working with the U.S. on issues such as trade, investment, and international peace and security.

“The relationship between our two countries serves as a model for the world. Our shared values, deep cultural ties, and strong integrated economies will continue to provide the basis for advancing our strong and prosperous partnership,” Trudeau said in his statement. (Source: Toronto Star)

An Update – November 27, 2024

November 12, 2016

When Donald Trump first became president in 2016, Canada found itself in an awkward spot. Justin Trudeau’s reaction was about as polite as you’d expect—lots of talk about shared values, working together, and keeping the relationship strong. Meanwhile, the rest of us watched nervously, wondering what Trump’s “America First” meant for Canada. At the time, I drew a cartoon that pretty much summed it up: Trump as a blazing sun, Trudeau melting under the heat, holding a beaver, with a bunch of dynamite and gas tanks around them labeled NAFTA, NATO, and the Paris Climate Accord. The punchline? Trump smirking and asking, “Aren’t you the one big on ‘Sunny Ways?’”

Fast forward to 2024, and here we are again. Trump’s back in the White House, and Trudeau’s still hanging on as Prime Minister. The same tensions from 2016 are back, and honestly, they feel even more intense now. Last time, there was a bit of a learning curve—no one quite knew what a Trump presidency would look like. Now we know, and it’s not exactly comforting.

Back then, Canada had to scramble to renegotiate NAFTA under Trump’s intense pressure, which ended up with us getting the USMCA—a deal that kept trade going but came with a few bruises. Trump pulled out of the Paris Climate Accord while Trudeau leaned hard into climate commitments, putting us on very different paths. And every time Trump talked about NATO or trade tariffs, you could almost feel Canada holding its breath.

Sound familiar? It should, because it’s all happening again. Trump’s second term is shaping up to bring more tariffs, more trade drama, and the same “America First” vibes. On the climate front, Trudeau’s government is trying to go full steam ahead on green policies, but Trump’s likely to double down on fossil fuels and shrug off global climate goals. And don’t even get me started on NATO—it’s probably only a matter of time before Trump starts questioning why the U.S. should bother at all.

The big difference this time is how much more divided everything feels. In 2016, there was at least a sense that the global order could hold up under the weight of Trump’s unpredictability. Now? The world feels shakier, and Canada’s position feels more vulnerable. Trudeau’s also been in power a long time, and whether or not he’s got the energy to take on another four years of Trump-style curveballs is a big question.

November 22, 2024

The other big curve ball is the reality that we are in all likelihood watching the end days of Justin Trudeau’s political career. How the relationship goes with a new captain at the helm in Pierre Poilievre is a huge unknown.

In 2016, Canadians were blindsided by Trump. In 2024, we know what’s coming, but that doesn’t make it any easier. The sunny ways Trudeau used to talk about seem like a distant memory, but if Canada got through the first round, maybe we can do it again. At the very least, we’ve had some practice melting under the heat.