USMCA

Tuesday November 19, 2019

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Tuesday November 19, 2019

Pelosi hints that a USMCA deal might be near. It’s a wise move for Democrats

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) suggested both that President Trump may be impeachable due to “bribery” and gave her strongest signal yet that the House Democratic leadership is close to a deal with the White House that would enable the passage of Mr. Trump’s update to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). In fact, she said those two seemingly contradictory things within the same news conference. Politics is indeed a strange and wondrous business.

June 22, 2019

Thank goodness. Governability can no longer be taken for granted in Washington, much less actual legislation. The impeachment of Mr. Trump along what are so far highly partisan lines threatened to deepen the dysfunctionality, despite promises from Ms. Pelosi and other Democratic leaders that the House could “walk and chew gum at the same time.” Ms. Pelosi’s optimistic words regarding the NAFTA revision, which Mr. Trump calls the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), were clearly carefully chosen and confirm that she was serious about her pledge to continue attending to the people’s business while the hearings proceed. This is a tribute also to the several dozen moderate members of her caucus, many first-termers elected from swing districts, who recognize that it is in their interest — as well as the country’s — to preserve stability in the hemispheric economy.

December 4, 2018

Stability is the operative word. Though highly unpopular in many quarters, especially the (often Democratic-leaning) industrial heartland — where it was blamed for loss of jobs to lower-wage Mexico — NAFTA, for better or worse, legally defines the multitrillion-dollar economic relationship among the United States and its two neighbors. To blow it up and revert to the higher-tariff status quo ante, as Mr. Trump threatened to do both in his 2016 campaign and as president, would have been disastrous.

On the other hand, having gone into effect in 1994, NAFTA was due for modernization, particularly to take account of new developments in e-commerce. Therefore, when Mr. Trump agreed to engage with Mexico and Canada in a renegotiation of the deal, it was wise for Democrats not to dismiss the effort out of hand, even if it might mean ultimately having to share credit with a Republican president for an initiative they had long promised to mount themselves.

October 2, 2018

On the merits, Mr. Trump’s deal is a tweak to NAFTA, disproving his hyperbole about how bad the old agreement was and how good his new one will be. It does indeed improve e-commerce rules and crack Canadian dairy protectionism. For the most part, though, the USMCA deal is about managed trade, not free trade. Its key provisions would set minimum autoworker wages in Mexico and guarantee higher North American content for cars and trucks made in the three signatory countries, so as to protect U.S. Jobs.

The realistic alternative, though, is a rupture with Mexico and Canada, which is why Ms. Pelosi and the moderates in her caucus are right to work with Mr. Trump, and why we hope they will see the USMCA through to House passage, send it to the GOP Senate for likely approval — and then move on to other business, impeachment included. (Washington Post)  

 

Wednesday February 6, 2019

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Wednesday February 6, 2019

Knuckling under pressure to the U.S. won’t win battle of steel tariffs

What was Ontario’s economic development and trade minister thinking when he publicly called on Canada to surrender in the trade war with the United States?

March 3, 2018

On Monday Todd Smith said Canada should remove tariffs put in place in response to Donald Trump’s imposition of 25 per cent tariffs on steel imports and 10 per cent on aluminum. Canada’s tariffs match those dollar for dollar, and are used in part to support companies and workers in the affected sectors.

Further, Smith said his boss, Doug Ford, wanted the same thing. “I know that the premier has suggested this to the federal government that they should remove their tariffs as a first step in removing tariffs overall.” As far as we know Ford hasn’t spoken on the matter, but if that’s how he feels, he should go public.

June 15, 2018

Why on earth would anyone, Ford or his minister, believe that Donald Trump would respect capitulation? Has Trump shown in past behaviour that he respects weakness? We must have missed that newscast.

Smith’s suggestion is so patently ridiculous it took only hours for steel and aluminum companies to pipe in with their support for Ottawa. A tweet from the Canadian Steel Producers Association, said: “The federal government’s retaliatory action against the U.S.A. is vital in protecting businesses and steelworkers.” The Aluminum Association of Canada said the Trudeau government should “maintain all tariffs on U.S. imports and support Canadian businesses as long as U.S. tariffs are in place.”

June 28, 2018

Analysts and pundits from all quarters were equally mystified and distraught. Why would the Ford government side with Trump against Canada? More than one suggested it might be linked to Ford’s oft-expressed respect and affection for Trump’s leadership. But suggesting Canada should surrender?

It turns out, if you believe the updated position of the province, that wasn’t behind Smith’s play. He really meant to say we should revisit tariffs on things other than steel and aluminum, like Kentucky bourbon and playing cards. That, he says, will demonstrate to Trump that Canada is willing to deal. This new position — if it can be called that — isn’t nearly as damaging, but it’s equally stupid. Do Smith and his boss really think Trump will come to the table based on bourbon and playing cards?

June 6, 2018

He won’t. He thinks his tariffs, broadly, have been a huge success and a sign of his historic greatness. Yes, they’re hurting Americans as they’re hurting Canadians, but Trump isn’t one to worry about his own citizens welfare. In his view, measures like these are signs of strength and dominance.

Tariffs are a real and growing problem for steel and aluminum companies. High steel prices have cushioned steel producers to some extent, but the impact of tariffs is already being felt in Sault St. Marie, and will eventually hit Hamilton as well.

Canada continues to work trade and diplomatic channels to see tariffs lifted. Some have suggested the prime minister shouldn’t give final approval to the new NAFTA agreement without resolution, and that might be worth considering. Trump sees NAFTA as a major accomplishment, and the fact that it might be stymied due to his nonsensical tariffs will trouble him. His own Congress has said it won’t support the new trade pact until tariffs have been lifted, and that might be worth Ottawa’s consideration, too. Much more work remains to be done.

But please, no more suggestions that Canada take a knee to the biggest bully in the free world. That’s embarrassing, and would only make dealing with Trump more difficult. The Trudeau government has walked a fine line to date between working with Trump and not being pushed around. That should continue to be its strategy. (Source: Hamilton Spectator Editorial) 

 

Tuesday December 4, 2018

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Tuesday December 4, 2018

Donald Trump threatens to kill NAFTA in push for Congress to approve new trade deal

U.S. President Donald Trump says he will withdraw the United States from NAFTA “in the not-too-distant future” in a hardball attempt to pressure Congress into voting to approve his new agreement with Canada and Mexico. 

November 30, 2018

The original North American Free Trade Agreement would otherwise remain in place if Congress rejected or delayed the new agreement, which Trump calls the USMCA and Canada calls CUSMA or “the new NAFTA.” A Trump withdrawal would give Congress a take-it-or-leave-it choice between the new agreement — which is highly similar to the original — and no agreement at all.

The new agreement has been criticized on various grounds by both Democrats and Republicans, leaving its prospects for passage uncertain. The Democrats, who will take control of the House of Representatives in January, have made clear that they do not plan to approve the deal any time soon.

Trump’s announcement late Saturday introduced new uncertainty into the continental trading relationship just a day after the leaders of the three countries held a signing ceremony for the new agreement, at which Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said the agreement “lifts the risks of serious economic uncertainty” that hovered over the negotiations themselves. Trump’s words suggested the state of bilateral trade will remain uncertain as long as the president is in office.

November 12, 2018

Advocates of free trade say a withdrawal would be a foolish gamble with the American economy. Trump has said he doesn’t see it that way, since he believes the economy was stronger without NAFTA than it is with it.

“Congress will have a choice of the USMCA or pre-NAFTA, which worked very well,”  Trump told reporters on the flight back from the G20 summit in Argentina.

“Congress will have a choice of approving the USMCA, which is a phenomenal deal. Much, much better than NAFTA. A great deal, ” he said. He again described NAFTA as a “disaster,” although the new deal he calls “incredible” retains almost all of NAFTA’ s central features while making a smattering of substantial changes.

The Canadian government declined to comment on the record. An official said on condition of anonymity, “ We are focused on our domestic ratification process and not a process that is internal to the U.S.” 

September 6, 2018

Trump’s announcement is likely to displease businesses across the continent, which have hailed the new agreement for preserving tariff-free North American trade and for allowing them to make investment plans with some degree of confidence that the rules will not soon change.

It is unclear whether Trump has the power to actually withdraw the U.S. from NAFTA. Some experts say he does, some say he doesn’t. The move would undoubtedly be challenged in U.S. courts, which have not yet weighed in on the question.

A Canadian government official told the Star last year that they have concluded “there’s a pretty good chance that he could just do this.” The official said the government also believed the old Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement, which preceded NAFTA, would snap back into force if he did.

June 6, 2018

Others say it would not be so simple.

It is also unclear whether Trump will indeed proceed. Trump has repeatedly delivered trade threats he has not carried out, and his aides — joined by Trudeau — have talked him out of withdrawing from NAFTA before. He has sometimes appeared to use harsh trade rhetoric primarily to appeal to parts of his political base, and his tough talk on Saturday came immediately after he announced that he had taken a conciliatory stance in a trade meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, postponing a plan to increase tariffs on Chinese products. (Source: Toronto Star) 

Friday November 30, 2018

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Friday November 30, 2018

USMCA signing could be overshadowed by larger divisions between nations at G20

Officials don’t know yet who will sign the pact. And they haven’t said exactly when, or where, it’s going to happen.

October 2, 2018

But when the G20 summit in Buenos Aires is over, the leaders of Canada, the United States and Mexico are supposed to be coming home with a newly signed trade agreement.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Wednesday his government was “still in discussions” with Washington about the timing and circumstances of the official United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement signing event. At any rate, it may turn out to be a hold-your-nose moment for the Trudeau government, which had hoped to see U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum lifted before signing day.

August 18, 2018

The chances that the tariffs will even be discussed at the summit, let alone lifted, are so slim that a source tells CBC News that Canada’s ambassador to the U.S. isn’t even going to Argentina.

David MacNaughton has been a key leader for the Canadian trade negotiating team, but he will not be present for the anticipated signing ceremony, or for any sideline talks with the Americans in Buenos Aires.

While the USMCA signing will be big news in Canada when it happens, it’s likely to be overshadowed by the larger global divisions on display at the G20.

June 9, 2018

The official agenda will see leaders discussing different approaches to sustainable and fair growth for the global economy. But these conversations come at a time when confidence in multilateral institutions is declining.

The Americans have been at the centre of two summits that ended in diplomatic disaster in this year alone.

Most recently, the APEC summit in Papua New Guinea ended without a communique, as trade frustrations between the U.S. and China flared.

In June, the G7 summit in Charlevoix, Quebec ended with President Trump pulling his support for the communique and lashing out at Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, calling him “weak.” (Source: CBC) 

 

Wednesday October 3, 2018

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Wednesday October 3, 2018

A historic vote in Quebec for every party, a tougher provincial puzzle for Trudeau

Everyone made history Monday in Quebec.

May 8, 2018

For the first time in Quebec’s history, the Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ), led by François Legault, won power taking a commanding 74 seats in the 125-seat national assembly.

The 12-year-old left-leaning separatist Quebec Solidaire hit historic highs in seats won — 10 — and in popular vote — 16 per cent. The party is also no longer confined to downtown Montreal but planted its first flags in Quebec City.

The other two parties made the kind of history one tries to avoid.

The Liberal Party of Quebec, with just under 25 per cent of the popular vote, has never fared worse in a general election since its creation at Confederation. Same thing with the Parti Quebecois: worst showing since its creation in 1970.

March 4, 2016

Quebec’s history-making election, though, followed a trend: yet another Liberal majority government in a provincial capital finds itself on the outs.

This trend is significant beyond Quebec’s borders and could impair the ability of the Liberal government in Ottawa to get as much done as it might wish on its domestic agenda in the final year of its mandate.

When Prime Minister Justin Trudeau convened his first First Ministers’ meeting, he would have looked around the room and seen many allies. Canada’s biggest provinces were all led by Liberals all of whom were leading majority governments: B.C.’s Christy Clark (Liberal in name, at least), Ontario’s Kathleen Wynne, Quebec’s Phillippe Couillard. Atlantic Canada’s four premiers were all Liberals and they, too, commanded majorities. If stuff was going to get done and done quickly, then all was in place.

August 8, 2014

But at his next meeting with the premiers, perhaps his final such meeting before he himself must face the electorate next fall, Trudeau will see quite a different crowd. Clark, of course, was replaced by a New Democrat in British Columbia who is hostile at worst and cool at best to Trudeau’s agenda while Wynne, Couillard and New Brunswick’s Brian Gallant (one assumes) have or will soon be replaced by right-of-centre premiers hostile to some of Trudeau’s core policies.

Two of those new premiers, Ontario’s Doug Ford and, now, Quebec’s Francois Legault’s have solid secure majorities. (Continued: Global News)