vote

Tuesday November 3, 2020

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Tuesday November 3, 2020

Canadians await U.S. election in fear, as poll reveals anxieties about aftermath

Canadians absorbed the first trickle of results Tuesday as their American neighbours went to the polls, capping a campaign marked by voter intimidation, threats of postelection violence, and concern about the potential breakdown of democracy itself.

November 6, 2012

The first returns showed U.S. President Donald Trump ahead, as expected, in Indiana and winning Kentucky, while an early see-saw for the crucial state of Florida was underway. But it was going to be a long night that would likely not produce a definitive result, said Mark Feigenbaum, the Toronto tax lawyer who is the chairman of Republicans Overseas Canada.

“It’s really encouraging that a lot of people are out voting. Whomever they’re voting for, I think it’s good,” he said.

Bessma Momani, an international affairs specialist at the University of Waterloo, said it was too early to draw any definitive conclusions.

“People are just projecting their own hopes,” she said.

November 11, 2016

“The early voting is pretty spectacular. From the academic side of this, usually early voting does not indicate a vote for the incumbent.”

Earlier Tuesday, a new poll from Leger and the Association for Canadian Studies found a clear majority of Canadians surveyed worried that the United States will suffer a breakdown of its system marked by “social chaos” if no clear winner emerges.

That fear was driven by the assumption that Trump won’t accept defeat if he does in fact lose, or may prematurely declare victory on election night before all votes, including mail-in ballots, can be legally counted.

The Leger poll found that three-quarters of those surveyed in Canada are worried about the U.S. election, and 68 per cent worry that there will be a “complete breakdown of the political system in the U.S. leading to a period of social chaos.”

Four out of five respondents said they were concerned that increased racial tension would lead to protests and violence. (CTV News) 

 

Friday March 6, 2020

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Friday March 6, 2020

Biden’s older voters are showing up. Sanders’ young voters aren’t

March 3, 2020

Super Tuesday was not so super for Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. He lost most of the states up for grabs, and it’s quite possible that he’ll end up with fewer delegates on the evening than chief rival former Vice President Joe Biden. 

Sanders’ struggles reflect an inability to connect with older voters, while at the same time failing to generate large youth turnout.

We saw a very familiar age gap across the Super Tuesday states. Sanders crushed it with younger voters. Looking across all the contests with an exit poll, Sanders won an astounding 61% to Biden’s 17% among voters under 30 years old. He even beat Biden by 20 points (43% to 23%) among those between 30 years old and 44 years old.

January 20, 2016

Sanders, however, struggled mightily with older voters. Biden won by 22 points (42% to 20%) with voters 45 years old to 64 years old. With senior citizens (those 65 years and older), Sanders managed to come in third with 15% (behind Biden’s 48% and former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg’s 19%).

Now you might be tempted to look at those numbers and see that Sanders won those under 45 years old by more than he lost those 45 years and older.

The problem for Sanders is the under 45 group make up a smaller piece of the pie. In no Super Tuesday state with an exit poll did those under 45 years old make up more than 42% of voters. Those under 45 years old were just 35% of the electorate in the median state.

The lack of younger voters in the electorate is, of course, usually the case. Those under 45 years old make up the minority of Democratic primary voters in 2016 as well. Sanders’ theory of the case, though, is his that candidacy can generate youth turnout.

A look at the results on Tuesday night suggests that he failed to do so.

The lack of strong youth turnout didn’t stop Sanders from his big win Nevada earlier this month. Unfortunately for Sanders, he did 4 points, 6 points and 7 points worse on Super Tuesday compared to Nevada among those 18-29 years old, 30-44 years old and 45-64 years old respectively. He actually did 3 points better among seniors on Super Tuesday than in Nevada, but Biden more than compensated for that by doing 19 points better with those 65 years and older.

Indeed, Biden did better in every age category on Tuesday compared to Nevada as he became the clear alternative to Sanders.

Going forward, the math is simple enough for Sanders. He’s either gotta win more votes from those voters who regularly turn out, or he’ll need to bring more young people to the polls. Failure to do so will result in a Biden nomination. (CNN)

The challenges of getting a caricature right. Below, shown using an iPad, captures the struggle I had drawing Bernie Sanders for the March 6, 2020 editorial cartoon. It’s maybe the 6th or 7th time I’ve ever drawn him, and despite he may have reached the final chapter of his political life (post Super Tuesday 2020), I think it’s my best drawing of him.

 

Friday December 14, 2018

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Friday December 14, 2018

5 Takeaways About Theresa May’s (Sort of) Victory

Prime Minister Theresa May survived a revolt on Wednesday by the hard-line, pro-Brexit parliamentary faction of her Conservative Party.

November 16, 2018

That will give her some time to try to get her plan for leaving the European Union — the same one that spurred the revolt — through Parliament.

But the final tally in the no-confidence vote on Wednesday also showed just how difficult that will be.

To pass legislation, Mrs. May needs the votes of all her party’s lawmakers and more — her government relies on the backing of a small Northern Ireland party. In this ballot, which was restricted to Conservative members of Parliament, 200 lawmakers supported her and 117 voted to eject her from office.

June 22, 2016

More than a third of her own party wanted someone else leading the Brexit process. That was especially sobering because about half of Conservative lawmakers also hold paid government posts of some sort; Mrs. May’s critics were quick to argue that she would have lost handily without the support of this “payroll vote.”

The prime minister bargained away her long-term political future to ensure she would survive the no-confidence vote, promising Conservative lawmakers that she would step down before a general election set for 2022.

A vote against Mrs. May’s leadership was effectively a vote against her agreement on leaving the European Union. (Her government is doing little else at the moment.)

June 24, 2016

European leaders will greet any attempt to rewrite the 585-page, legally binding withdrawal agreement with a resounding no. They refuse to abandon a so-called backstop arrangement that at least temporarily keeps Britain in a customs union with Europe to avoid a hard border between Northern Ireland, which is part of the United Kingdom, and Ireland, which is a member of the European Union.

If Parliament does nothing before March 29, Britain’s relationship with the European Union will rupture overnight. Banking, trade, travel, food, medicines, the fluid border between Ireland and Northern Ireland — all would be thrown into flux. (Source: New York Times) 

 

Thursday May 24, 2018

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Thursday May 24, 2018

Almost half of NDP voters just want to stop Liberals, Tories from winning: Ipsos poll

According to recent data from an Ipsos poll conducted exclusively for Global News, 46 per cent of NDP voters intend to vote for the party to stop the Liberals or the Ontario Progressive Conservatives from winning.

“All eyes are on Andrea Horwath right now because her support is the most tenuous,” said Ipsos’ Sean Simpson. “There’ll be more scrutiny paid to Ms. Horwath during the campaign.”

Sixty-four per cent of Ontarians responded that they’re voting for a particular party because they prefer it over all the others, though Ipsos’ Darrell Bricker commented that the number of voters casting ballots to strategically oust another party is “extremely high” during this election.

Simpson agrees that these figures show a large portion of the population “voting against something rather than voting for something.”

A slim majority of NDP voters, 54 per cent, claimed to be voting for the party because they prefer the party. Among PC voters, 64 per cent of respondents said they’re voting for the party because they prefer it over the others, while 36 per cent want to stop another party from winning.

Liberal voters on the other hand, while still maintaining the lowest support, have the highest percentage of voters (at 74 per cent) supporting them because they genuinely like their policies, while 26 per cent want to stop another party from forming a government. (Source: Global News) 

 

Tuesday July 21, 2015

Tuesday July 21, 2015Editorial cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Tuesday July 21, 2015

Harper tells MPs to tout child care pay out in letter to caucus

In a rare move, Prime Minister Stephen Harper sent out a letter to the Conservative caucus Sunday calling for support to promote the expanded Universal Child Care Benefit.

Almost $3 billion in UCCB payments will be sent out Monday.

According to a copy of the letter obtained by CTV News from a senior government source, the “enhanced” UCCB payments will provide the biggest one-time direct payment in federal history, writes Harper in the note.

“Our Conservative government has always stood up for the financial interest of middle class families,” says Harper.

In the letter, Harper also stresses to his colleagues the importance of touting the child care benefit.

The government had previously provided Canadian families monthly payments of $100 for each child under six. But the new changes will see the payments jump to $160 a month. Parents with children between the ages of six and 17 will also now receive $60.

The increased payments are retroactive to Jan. 1, 2015, so millions of Canadian parents will receive a cheque covering benefits from January to June of this year.

The roll out of the increased UCCB comes as the Oct. 19 federal election approaches.

Opposition leaders have been hyping the perks of their party’s child care platforms.

Tom Mulcair is kicking off an eight-day tour in the crucial battleground of Ontario on Monday.

If elected, the NDP leader has promised to spend $5 billion a year to create 1 million daycare spaces that parents could access for no more than $15 a day.

Meanwhile, Justin Trudeau and the Liberals have proposed a “Canada Child Benefit,” which would offer thousands of dollars annually to families depending on their income. As much as $6,400 would be available for every child under six, and up to $5,400 for children aged six to 17. (Source: CTV News)

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