Saturday December 14, 2024
Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Saturday December 14, 2024
Good Cop, Bad Cop: Ford’s Bluff Is a Risky, Yet Savvy Strategy Against Trump
Young Doug Ford: The Series
Doug Ford’s suggestion to halt Canadian energy exports to the U.S. may sound extreme, but it’s a calculated gambit in the face of Donald Trump’s looming threat of a 25% tariff on Canadian goods. While Ford’s rhetoric is risky, it mirrors Trump’s own blustery style and could serve as a critical counterweight to the often-dismissed diplomacy of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
Trump, no stranger to hardline populism, has consistently shown disdain for Trudeau and his liberal-leaning strategies. Whether dismissing Canada’s contributions or falsely claiming the U.S. “subsidizes” its northern neighbor to the tune of $100 billion annually, Trump’s language reflects a deeply transactional worldview. He values strength and posturing, traits Ford channels in his bold threat to cut off power exports.
May 31, 2023
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, Quebec’s François Legault, and Newfoundland and Labrador’s Andrew Furey all dismissed Ford’s proposal. They argued for diplomacy, emphasizing Canada’s energy partnerships and economic interdependence with the U.S. Their reasoning is sound; energy retaliation could harm Canadian jobs and escalate a trade war. Yet, Trump’s track record suggests that polite diplomacy alone may not deter him. This is where Ford’s brinkmanship could have value.
By threatening to cut energy exports—an essential lifeline for U.S. states like Michigan and New York—Ford adopts Trump’s own playbook. This isn’t just about retaliating; it’s about speaking a language Trump understands. As a right-leaning populist, Ford’s rhetoric may resonate with Trump, forcing him to consider the domestic backlash of losing Canadian electricity and oil. Such a tactic, even as a bluff, plays into Trump’s fixation on strength and his aversion to being publicly outmaneuvered.
News: Trump says it’s ‘fine’ after Ford threat to cut energy to border states
October 17, 2024
Critics argue Ford’s approach is reckless. Indeed, cutting off energy exports would hurt both nations, deepening economic strain on families and businesses. However, Ford has explicitly framed this as a “last resort,” ensuring it remains a theoretical deterrent rather than an immediate policy. It also positions him as a stronger voice than Trudeau in the face of Trump’s economic warfare.
As one reader in The Toronto Star commented, “You never appease a bully—not ever.” This encapsulates why Ford’s stance, despite its risks, might be the right counterweight to Trump’s aggression. Appeasement risks emboldening Trump, who thrives on dominating perceived weaker opponents. A hardline response, particularly from someone who shares Trump’s populist bent, might force the U.S. president to reconsider his tactics.
June 15, 2018
Ford’s strategy is not without precedent. Historically, trade disputes have often involved brinkmanship, with both sides staking out extreme positions before arriving at a negotiated compromise. Ford’s rhetoric, as dramatic as it may be, serves as a necessary counterbalance to Trump’s. While premiers like Smith and Legault are right to emphasize stability and diplomacy, Ford’s hardline approach ensures Canada has a strong bargaining chip in negotiations.
In the end, a unified strategy blending Ford’s toughness with Trudeau’s diplomacy could prove most effective. The “good cop, bad cop” approach—combining Ford’s threat of energy export cuts with a more measured federal response—might give Trump pause without pushing relations to the breaking point.
For now, Ford’s bluff mirrors Trump’s style and sends a clear message: Canada won’t be a passive player in this economic showdown. Whether Trump respects Canada’s energy leverage or escalates the conflict remains to be seen, but Ford’s strategy ensures Canada’s voice isn’t lost in the din of U.S. domestic politics.