election

Saturday August 14, 2021

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Saturday August 14, 2021

Canada is headed for a federal election on Sept. 20

Canadians will head to the polls on Sept. 20.

July 23, 2021 – NonStop speculation

Following a meeting with Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau this morning, Gov. Gen. Mary Simon approved his request to dissolve Parliament, triggering the issuing of the election writs and formally beginning Canada’s 44th federal election.

The campaign will last 36 days — the minimum campaign length permitted by law.

Opposition parties have argued against an early election call. Canada’s next fixed-date election was set for October 2023.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh went so far as to urge Simon to refuse Trudeau’s request. Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole said Monday he was concerned about holding a campaign during a fourth wave of the pandemic and accused Trudeau of pursuing an election in his own political “self-interest.”

From the podium outside of Rideau Hall this morning, Trudeau pushed back against his critics, saying Canadians deserve a chance to decide who should guide the country out of the pandemic.

“In this pivotal, consequential moment, who wouldn’t want a say? Who wouldn’t want their chance to help decide where our country goes from here?” he said.

July 9, 2021

“So to the other parties, please explain why you don’t think Canadians should get a choice, why you don’t think that this is a pivotal moment. I’m focused on our real plan. I’m focused on the path forward.”

At dissolution, the Liberals hold 155 seats in the House of Commons, while the Conservatives have 119, the Bloc Québécois 32, the New Democrats 24 and the Green Party two. Five seats are held by independents.

The federal Liberals continue to hold a lead in public polling, capturing 35.6 per cent of public support against 28.8 per cent for the Conservatives and 19.3 per cent for the NDP, according to CBC’s Poll Tracker. That level of support puts them just in range of the 170 seats needed to form a majority government. 

The Conservatives say they plan to argue that Canadians can’t afford to trust the Liberals with the country’s post-pandemic economic recovery.

June 10, 2021

Reporters asked O’Toole multiple questions about something that is shaping up to be a campaign sticking point: the party’s views on mandatory vaccinations. On Friday, the Liberals announced they would require vaccinations for all federal public servants, air and train passengers.

“Conservatives would like Canadians to be able to make their own decision. We have to educate people, not force them,” O’Toole said.

The NDP, meanwhile, is hoping the work New Democrat MPs did in pushing for more generous COVID-19 aid programs will resonate with Canadians at the ballot box and carry them out of fourth place.

The party also has released a platform which promises universal pharmacare, a guaranteed livable income, free tuition and a wealth tax.

September 25, 2020

“Justin Trudeau wants to grab power and wants a majority. But why does he want a majority? It’s certainly not because he wants to help more people or help people more,” said Singh from Montreal, where he kicked off his campaign today.

On day one, Trudeau was asked about the evolving situation in Afghanistan as the Taliban enter the capital.

Hours before the official election call, the government announced Canada is shutting down its embassy in Kabul and suspending diplomatic operations in the country.

It also intends to take in as many as 20,000 additional refugees from the war-torn country.

July 15, 2021

“We are extremely concerned about the situation in Afghanistan and I can assure you that officials and indeed ministers continue and will continue to weigh in on protecting Canadians, getting Canadians safely out of Afghanistan and continuing to step up as Canada has so many times around the world to bring people to safety,” he said.

When an election is called, the federal government enters a “caretaker” mode that limits most major decisions. (CBC)

2019 Federal Election

Friday July 23, 2021

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Friday July 23, 2021

If Justin Trudeau doesn’t win a majority in the next election, Jagmeet Singh may be the reason

Some polls have Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole doing poorly, others have him doing worse. But all agree on one thing: NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is in a political sweet spot.

June 24, 2021

If Justin Trudeau fails to win a majority government in an election that could be called as early as next month, it might not be Mr. O’Toole who brings the Liberal leader up short – it might be Mr. Singh.

Leger and Angus Reid have the Conservatives narrowly trailing the Liberals, while Ipsos and Abacus have the Liberals far ahead.

Canadians believe their governments have, on the whole, managed the COVID-19 pandemic reasonably well, and over the course of that pandemic have rewarded incumbent governments of all stripes with re-election.

The similarities between the COVID-19 pandemic and the Second World War appear strong. Both were traumatic and transformative. As society emerged from crisis, people looked to governments to build a strong recovery. People today are also worried about what appears to be the accelerating impact of climate change. Systemic racism and Indigenous reconciliation are important issues.

The Conservatives have offered no clear plan for how they would have handled the pandemic – and will handle the recovery – differently. They are not a party associated with fighting climate change, combating racism or improving Indigenous relations. We do not live in Conservative times.

March 2, 2021

But Mr. Trudeau is not a terribly popular prime minister. A recent Abacus poll has about an equal number of people saying they have a positive or negative impression of him, and Mr. O’Toole is quite unpopular. The only national party leader with a positive approval rating is Mr. Singh.

All recent polls have the NDP sitting at around 20 per cent, well above the 16 per cent they garnered in the 2019 election. If that number holds, the NDP should pick up seats: in B.C.’s Lower Mainland, in Toronto, elsewhere in Ontario, maybe here and there in the Prairies.

Here’s something else: The accessible voter pool – those who might consider voting for a political party – is now higher for the NDP (48 per cent) than for the Conservatives (41 per cent).

That doesn’t mean there is going to be some Orange Crush, in which the NDP smashes through in B.C. and Ontario, scattering Liberal MPs and sending the Conservatives into third place, which the NDP under Jack Layton did to the Bloc and Liberals in 2011 in Quebec. But the NDP popular vote, combined with its accessible voter pool and Mr. Singh’s popularity, suggests the likelihood of gains.

September 10, 2019

This shouldn’t be all that surprising. In the 2019 election, Mr. Singh was unknown, he was out of his depth and the party was practically bankrupt. Today the NDP has paid off its debt and will be able to finance a respectable national campaign. Mr. Singh is a better-known, more confident and more experienced leader. (Globe & Mail) 

Meanwhile, the Green Party and its associated fund are taking their battle with party leader Annamie Paul to court — ending a tentative truce between Paul and party executives just as a federal election call is expected within weeks.

June 18, 2021

The conflict between Paul and her party hit a crisis point in May when, during an escalation of violence in the Middle East, Paul issued a statement calling for a de-escalation and a return to dialogue.

Fredericton MP Jenica Atwin, who left the Green Party for the Liberals in June, called the statement “totally inadequate.” Her departure left the Greens with just two MPs. (CBC) 

 

Friday July 9, 2021

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Friday July 9, 2021

Trudeau denies it, but signs point to early election in Canada

Covid-19 cases are down in Canada and some are interpreting Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s cross-country travel this week as a surefire sign of an imminent election.

September 10, 2019

Trudeau’s whistle stop in Calgary on Wednesday started with a blunt question from RED FM host Rishi Nagar, who noted the prime minister’s back-to-back pit stops in Cowessess First Nation in Saskatchewan and in Sault Ste. Marie, Ont., to make a C$420-million funding announcement to help Algoma Steel phase out coal and create jobs.

“All this shows that you are in an election campaign mode,” Nagar said. Trudeau rejected the characterization.

“Actually, it doesn’t. It shows that we are getting things done,” Trudeau said in this first in-studio interview in 16 months. “I’ve been taking advantage of the fact that our case loads are now lower that people are getting vaccinated, to be able to travel a little bit more and make the announcements on things that we’ve been working on for many, many months.”

Nearly 78 percent of eligible Canadians have so far received at least one dose of a Covid-19 vaccine. Forty-four percent are fully vaccinated. Growing in parallel to Canada’s vaccination rates is speculation about the timing of a federal election — and anxiety over how it could be as early as late summer.

June 2, 2021

Political watchers have been viewing everything through an election lens: the return of Trudeau’s clean-shaven look, inflation climbing to its highest rate in a decade, the anticipated timing of the Canada-U.S. border reopening, a free one-time check for seniors timed for the week of Aug. 16, an increased number of in-person funding announcements, and, according to former Liberal strategist David Herle, the fact Liberal MPs have been nudged to take their vacations in July.

The country’s attention is split. Many in Canada are focused on securing second doses and family reunions, grief over the discovery of more than 1,000 remains in unmarked graves on the grounds of former Indian residential schools, and the extreme heat that saw hundreds of “sudden and unexpected deaths” in the western province of British Columbia, triggering renewed focus to climate change.

On Thursday, the prime minister’s plane landed in British Columbia where he announced a new C$3.2-billion agreement with the province to cut child care fees in half by the end of 2022.

“We’re making your life easier and more affordable,” Trudeau said in the campaign-style announcement. He said the agreement would see the creation of 30,000 high-quality spaces over the next five years. “This is what it means to be a feminist government.”

April 22, 2021

Trudeau is teasing news about the promise of a national child care and early learning system. It’s an anticipated update to a marquee proposal from this year’s federal budget that will have the attention of parents across the country, especially in vote-rich southern Ontario where there are 45 seats to be won. Annual child care costs in Toronto are the country’s highest, topping C$21,000, according to the Canadian Centre of Policy Alternatives.

“I’m very much looking forward to making big announcements on child care in the coming weeks,” Trudeau said Wednesday.

Trudeau wields power in a minority government, which means he needs the support of opposition parties to pass legislation. As prime minister, it also means he has the power to call an election.

Recent polls have placed the Liberals in single to double-digit leads, throwing open a window for Trudeau to dissolve Parliament in an attempt to turn his minority government — which has been functioning throughout the pandemic — into a majority.

The next fixed election date is Oct. 16, 2023. But under Canada’s constitutional monarchy system, the prime minister can request to dissolve Parliament at any time to trigger an election. For an incumbent government, that ability to choose a date and prepare is an advantage.

May 30, 2017

“For the Liberals, it’s the question of whether the current trends will hold into the fall,” veteran polls analyst Éric Grenier told POLITICO. Grenier, who recently launched The Writ, said Liberals will have to take stock of the political environment as the pandemic subsides.

The longer the Liberals wait, the more they risk squandering the opportunity to take advantage of the Conservatives’ polling numbers, which Grenier said are lower than those pulled by former leader Andrew Scheer in the lead up to the 2019 federal election.

“There are also some municipal elections in fall, that could complicate things,” Grenier said. “I don’t think that would be enough necessarily to prevent them from calling an election.” (Politico)

2019 Federal Election

Saturday May 15, 2021

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Saturday May 15, 2021

Trudeau cleared in WE Charity scandal but former finance minister broke conflict law, says ethics watchdog

The federal ethics commissioner has cleared Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of wrongdoing in last summer’s WE Charity scandal.

July 24, 2020

Ethics Commissioner Mario Dion also concluded Trudeau’s finance minister at the time, Bill Morneau, did breach the Conflict of Interest Act when he failed to recuse himself from cabinet deliberations on the summer student grants contract.

In his investigation report, Dion stated that Trudeau — who apologized for not recusing himself from cabinet talks on the now-cancelled program — didn’t have a close relationship with the Kielburger brothers, while Morneau — who faced similar allegations — “placed himself in a conflict of interest on several occasions.”

The Conservatives were swift to denounce the commissioner’s report, titled “Trudeau III” since it’s the third ethics commissioner probe into the PM.

The Liberal government’s decision to give WE Charity a $43 million contract to run a $900 million student grant program quickly blew up into a major scandal last summer following reports that Trudeau and Morneau’s families had ties with the organization.

July 30, 2020

Reporting by CBC News and Canadaland showed the prime minister’s mother Margaret and his brother Alexandre were paid in excess of $300,000 by WE and its entities for speaking engagements over the last four years.

“Although the connection between Mr. Trudeau’s relatives and WE created the appearance of a conflict of interest, the appearance of conflict is insufficient to cause a contravention of the Act’s substantive rules,” wrote Dion.

“The duty to recuse is only required when the public office holder would be in a potential conflict of interest.”

Friday July 31, 2020

Today, Trudeau thanked the commissioner for his work.

“After his full review, the commissioner found that there was no conflict of interest. This confirms what I have been saying from the beginning,” he said.

“At the heart of this initiative was getting support for youth during this pandemic as fast as possible.”

Dion’s report did find that Morneau, who stepped down from cabinet and as an MP in August, had the opportunity to “improperly further WE’s private interests.”

“The examination found the relationship between Mr. Morneau and WE included an unusually high degree of involvement between their representatives and afforded WE unfettered access to the office of the minister of Finance, which amounted to preferential treatment,” wrote Dion. (CBC) 

 

Tuesday March 2, 2021

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Tuesday March 2, 2021

Partisan chess games in times of the pandemic

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says he doesn’t want a pandemic election. Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole has shown signs he wants any election call to be later rather than sooner. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has said he will not help to topple the government until the vast majority of Canadians are immunized against COVID-19.

October 8, 2020

So why are there more signs nearly every day that we are heading for the polls late this spring or at latest next fall? 

The short answer is because we cannot believe any of the main party leaders. They all know Canadians, by and large, are too preoccupied with the pandemic to be distracted by an election campaign. They know, too, that a campaign and national vote during the pandemic is bound to carry more risks than in normal times. None of them wants to wear that, so they are all saying the right thing.

But they are politicians, after all. They have watched while voters went to the polls in New Brunswick on Sept. 14 and rewarded Premier Blaine Higgs for rolling the dice. B.C. Premier John Horgan did the same and it paid off on Oct. 24 when he was soundly re-elected. Saskatchewan’s Scott Moe did it and voters ultimately rewarded his Saskatchewan Party with a fourth majority mandate. So it turns out there may well be partisan benefits for political leaders who gamble on pandemic elections. 

September 1, 2020

Not always, though. Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Andrew Furey called an election for Feb. 13, but COVID-19 had other plans. After variants caused several outbreaks, in-person voting was cancelled and the election was delayed for more than half the province. The results are still unknown. 

The Newfoundland and Labrador election mess should serve as a reminder to federal party leaders that if the country goes into a COVID crisis during the campaign, their partisan gamesmanship could turn into a political nightmare. In that respect, only the NDP’s Singh as actually saying the right thing: No election until Canada has achieved herd immunity.

It would be a pleasant change if both Trudeau and O’Toole came out publicly sharing Singh’s position. They could then legitimately say they were putting the interests and welfare of Canadians ahead of partisanship. It would also be nice if COVID-19 mysteriously disappeared around the world. The two things are about equally likely.

January 22, 2021

But if they know that an election is riskier than usual — consider what would happen to the leader who forced an election if a Newfoundland and Labrador scenario unfolded nationally — what are the two leaders and their inner circles thinking?

O’Toole and his brain trust are probably not in a hurry, but they will play an election and play it hard if it happens. Their fundraising has been strong so their war chest will be full. They know Trudeau’s brand has been battered somewhat by the slower than promised acquisition of COVID vaccines. What they also know but would be unwilling to acknowledge is that O’Toole is struggling to establish a leadership brand Canadians find appealing, especially in Ontario, Quebec, the Maritimes and to a lesser extent in B.C. And they are stuck at about 30 per cent support in opinion polls, which is the same as when Andrew Scheer led the party.

December 5, 2020

As for Trudeau, he has seen his popularity slide, but he also sees support for his party remaining strong, especially in central and eastern Canada, which means they would win an election if it was held today. But could they eke out a majority? And if they don’t, why force an election at all? 

History has shown that minority governments can work. Trudeau and O’Toole might want to consider that as they play high-stakes partisan chess. (Hamilton Spectator Editorial)