Ontario

Friday March 26, 2021

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Friday March 26, 2021

Ontario has no clue how to get to fiscal sustainability

Somewhere in the bowels of Ottawa, officials are quietly preparing contingency plans for a fiscal bailout of Newfoundland, should that become necessary. They may wish to add Ontario to their plans.

April 16, 2020

Ontario’s fiscal situation was dire before the pandemic; it has grown much worse because of the pandemic; and it is going to get still worse after the pandemic is long past. That, mind, is the optimistic scenario – which is to say, the scenario on which the Ontario government has chosen to base its latest budget.

It shows the province’s net debt-to-GDP ratio rising, not falling, from the astronomic levels it has already reached, for as many years as the government can credibly project. From 47 per cent in the year just ended – more than three times what it was 30 years ago, and second-highest in the country after Newfoundland – it is forecast to continue to increase, to more than 50 per cent.

Only in the last years of this decade does it begin to recede, and then only on some heroically optimistic assumptions, a mix of the usual complacency about interest rates, fond hopes about economic growth and some truly herculean reductions in spending. We’ll come back to these in a minute. For now let us consider whether the government of Doug Ford even appreciates the gravity of the situation it is in.

May 16, 2020

The most the budget will allow is that the government “remains committed to developing a path back to sustainable public finances.” Not that public finances aresustainable; nor that they are on track to get there; nor even that the government has a plan to get us on that track; only that it is “committed to developing” such a plan.

Well, all right, there’s a pandemic on, and the government is focused on spending whatever it takes to get the province through it. First things first. But longer term? Does it even know what sustainable public finances look like, let alone how to get there?

The government’s choice of targets – not rules, or anchors, but targets – does not fill one with hope. It has three. First, it hopes to limit the debt-to-GDP ratio “to not exceed 50.5 per cent” over the medium term. Why 50.5? Because, one suspects, that is where the debt-to-GDP ratio was headed anyway – though if growth comes in below projections, the target will prove no obstacle.

As for the other two – debt interest to revenue, and net debt to revenue – the government declines even to pretend to have a target for these, other than “to slow their rate of increase.” (Slow it by how much? From what benchmark? It doesn’t say.)

Not only has the government assigned itself a sliding, indeterminate, non-binding target for fiscal sustainability, it seems in no hurry to get there. “Our return to fiscal sustainability,” the province’s Finance Minister, Peter Bethlenfalvy, said in his budget speech, “will take many, many years.” (Continued: Globe & Mail) 

 

Thursday March 25, 2021

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Thursday March 25, 2021

There will ‘absolutely’ be queue jumping for Ontario COVID-19 vaccines in Phase 2, task force member says

A member of Ontario’s vaccine task force says that there will “absolutely” be some people jumping the line for COVID-19 vaccines in the second phase of the province’s rollout but he says the issue can be at least partly mitigated by having more family doctors administer shots.

March 4, 2021

The Doug Ford government has said that it will prioritize nearly three million people with pre-existing conditions as part of the next phase of its vaccine rollout but it has released few details on how it will identify those people and verify their medical history.

That has led to some concerns about queue-jumping, which could ultimately mean that the people most at risk of a severe outcome from COVID-19 have to wait longer for their shots.

“Listen it is not going to be perfect. Even if we have primary care expanded and in their clinics vaccinating individuals where they know their patients and they know who would be a good candidate for the first part of phase two and the second part of phase two that doesn’t fully solve this problem,” infectious disease specialist Dr. Issac Bogoch, who sits on Ontario’s vaccine task force, told CP24 on Tuesday morning. “There will be some honour system and you know what this isn’t perfect. There will be some people who jump the line, there will be, there absolutely will be. This is going to be a challenging thing to police.”

The Ford government has provided a list of 24 health conditions that would qualify residents for vaccines ahead of the general public and has broken them up into three categories – highest risk, high risk and at-risk.

Bogoch said that he doesn’t believe the issue of queue jumping will be a significant problem for the province, especially given the fact that the vaccines themselves will become a much less “limited resource” in the coming months.

But he said that the government will have to find some better ways to verify medical conditions and may have to “rely on peoples goodwill to wait their turn for vaccination” to a certain extent, as well.

“It is being billed as an 11 out of 10 problem when it probably is a two or three out of 10 problem,” he said. (CTV) 

 

Friday March 12, 2021

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Friday March 12, 2021

Summer Dreaming

New variants of the coronavirus are spreading rapidly in Ontario and unless they are better controlled, the province risks facing a third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, an expert panel advising the province’s government said on Thursday.

February 17, 2021

It warned that the next few weeks are critical as the progress made in bringing the coronavirus under control in the province has stalled.

“Variants of concern continue to spread across Ontario. Our ability to control the rate of spread will determine whether we return to normal or face a third wave of infection,” the panel said in briefing material.

While mutations in viruses are inevitable, strains identified as “variants of concern” have worrisome changes that may give the virus advantages, increasing transmissibility or reducing the effectiveness of vaccines, according to the briefing materials released by the province’s science advisory and modeling consensus tables.

Graphs published online ahead of the briefing showed cases of the new variants in Ontario have jumped from below 5 per 100,000 residents each week in early February to nearly 20 per 100,000 residents each week in early March.

That increase has been balanced to some extent by a decline in cases of earlier variants of the virus. (Reuters) https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-canada-ontario/coronavirus-variants-could-cause-third-wave-in-ontario-expert-panel-idUSKBN2B32WV

April 18 2020

Meanwhile, as vaccine rollout continues to ramp up in Canada and the United States, some American politicians are calling on the Biden administration to reopen the Canada-U.S. land border by this summer.

In a letter addressed to U.S. President Joe Biden, Rep. Brian Higgins of New York asked that Biden work with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for “a partial re-opening of the Northern Border by Memorial Day of this year with a full re-opening by July 4.”

Higgins, who also chairs the congressional Northern Border Caucus, wrote that the current border restriction between the two countries “tears at the fabric of our community and is a critical problem for individuals, families, and businesses.” (CTV) 

 

Friday March 5, 2021

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Friday March 5, 2021

Pandemic Partisan Pile-ons

March 2, 2021

Only three months ago, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau rose in the House of Commons and said that, when it came to vaccinations for COVID-19, Canada was in a superior position compared with its global peers. 

The government’s planning, he said, “resulted in us having the best portfolio of vaccines of any country in the world, with more doses per capita than any other country.”

But as of this week, Canada ranked behind more than 30 countries 

in vaccination rates. Its number of inoculated citizens stalled in February, hovering at about 5 per cent – while peer countries such as Britain and the United States, as well as poorer countries such as Chile and Morocco, have accelerated their rollout.

The government has assured Canadians the faltering start is now in the rearview mirror and a rapid increase in vaccine deliveries will see the country closing the gap.

On Wednesday, Mr. Trudeau said he was optimistic that Canada will be able to surpass his stated September deadline for getting shots to everyone. That end-of-summer deadline is in line with one set by Germany but behind Britain and the U.S.

How did the government go from proclaiming its performance was “the best” to fending off accusations that it had failed its citizens?

January 28, 2021

A Globe and Mail analysis has shown the Trudeau government’s lofty promises were never consistent with several hard realities: a severe lack of manufacturing capacity in a world obliged to vaccinate their own citizens first, as well as contracts with vaccine suppliers that appear to contain less-advantageous delivery schedules than those inked by Britain and the U.S.

What’s more, rather than prepare Canadians for an inevitable lag at the start of the vaccination schedule, the government relied on soaring rhetoric. It told Canadians it had hedged its bets and assured success by signing contracts with multiple international pharmaceutical giants. And although it’s certainly true that Ottawa placed wise bets on the vaccines first out of the clinical-trial gate – those developed by Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna and Oxford-AstraZeneca – it didn’t properly explain to citizens that the global inoculation race had two distinct phases: first to purchase the vaccines and then to secure them.

“Canada, for some reason, was very quick to make purchases and really slow to invest in the manufacturing piece. I don’t know what went into those decisions,” said Andrea Taylor, a researcher with Duke University’s Global Health Innovation Centre, which has been tracking vaccine procurements around the world.

“They may have had more faith in the global supply chain than other countries.” (Globe & Mail) 

February 25, 2021

Meanwhile, Shipments are ramping up, more COVID-19 vaccines are getting approved, and expert advice to stretch the gap between doses means millions of Canadians could get the protection of a first dose sooner than expected. 

Taken together, those changes represent a significant shift from the delays and consternation that marked Canada’s national vaccine campaign in recent weeks.

But they have also left Ontario scrambling to keep up with the pace. 

Facing criticism over failing to prepare for the long-foreseen surge of doses that Ottawa ordered from overseas, Premier Doug Ford’s government is now set to table an updated vaccination schedule on Friday. 

The plan comes after a week that saw existing timelines — which were widely criticized as too vague and too slow — suddenly in flux. (Toronto Star) 

 

Thursday March 4, 2021

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Thursday March 4, 2021

As vaccine supply ramps up, provinces and territories fine-tune rollout plans

Vaccine deliveries are ramping up and provinces and territories are starting to unveil more of their vaccine rollout plans.

February 23, 2021

Each province has a phased plan for vaccine deployment which indicates when the various priority groups can expect to receive the shots.

Here’s what we know so far about who’s getting the shots and when.

B.C. is still in Phase 1 of its vaccine rollout, which covers residents and staff of long-term care facilities, health care workers who may provide care for COVID-19 patients and remote and isolated Indigenous communities.

The subsequent phase is expected to run through March and includes seniors 80 and over, Indigenous seniors 65 and over, hospital staff and medical specialists, vulnerable populations living and working in congregated settings and staff providing in-home support to seniors.

February 6, 2021

As of Feb. 24, seniors 75 and over (born in 1946 or earlier) and seniors 65 and over living in First Nations and Métis communities were eligible for vaccination. The Alberta government estimates there are about 230,000 seniors in these two groups.

Manitoba’s immunization teams are now vaccinating all residents age 92 and older (born on or before December 31, 1928) and First Nations people 72 and older (born on or before December 31, 1948).

Ontario’s vaccination rollout is in Phase 1, which covers staff and essential caregivers in long-term care homes, high-risk retirement homes and First Nations elder care homes, and highest-priority health care workers.

January 7, 2021

In March, Phase 1 is expected to expand to adults 80 years of age and older, staff, residents and caregivers in retirement homes and other congregate care settings, high-priority health care workers, all Indigenous adults and adult recipients of chronic home care.

Vaccines have been delivered to Ontario’s 34 public health units in Ontario and the pace of the rollout could vary depending on the region.

On the island of Montreal, vaccinations are now available to people 80 and older. 

The rest of Quebec will start vaccinating anyone 85 years of age or older next week. Anyone born before 1936 can start making an appointment for their first dose on February 25, by phone or online.

Nova Scotia’s vaccination effort is in Phase 1. That covers those who work directly with patients in hospitals or care homes, people who live and work in long term care homes and people who live and work in adult residential care centres and regional rehabilitation centres.

There’s no word yet on when the next phase of the vaccine rollout will begin. 

Newfoundland & Labrador is in Phase 1 of its immunization plan. Doses in this first phase are earmarked for congregate living settings for seniors, health care workers at high risk of exposure to COVID-19, people 85 and older and adults in remote or isolated Indigenous communities.

It’s not known yet when the next phase of the province’s vaccination plan will begin. (CBC)