diplomacy

Monday December 16, 2019

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Monday December 16, 2019

Boris Johnson and the Coming Trump Victory in 2020

July 24, 2019

Donald Trump, in his telling, could have shot somebody on Fifth Avenue and won. Boris Johnson could mislead the queen. He could break his promise to get Britain out of Europe by Oct. 31. He could lie about Turks invading Britain and the cost of European Union membership. He could make up stories about building 40 new hospitals. He could double down on the phantom $460 million a week that Brexit would deliver to the National Health Service — and still win a landslide Tory electoral victory not seen since Margaret Thatcher’s triumph in 1987.

The British, or at least the English, did not care. Truth is so 20th century. They wanted Brexit done; and, formally speaking, Johnson will now take Britain out of Europe by Jan. 31, 2020, even if all the tough decisions on relations with the union will remain. Johnson was lucky. In the pathetic, emetic Jeremy Corbyn, the soon-to-depart Labour Party leader, he faced perhaps the worst opposition candidate ever. In the Tory press, he had a ferocious friend prepared to overlook every failing. In Brexit-weary British subjects, whiplashed since the 2016 referendum, he had the perfect receptacle for his “get Brexit done.”

June 27, 2016

Johnson was also skillful, blunting Nigel Farage’s far-right Brexit Party, which stood down in many seats, took a lot of Labour votes in the seats where it did run, and ended up with nothing. The British working class, concentrated in the Midlands and the North, abandoned Labour and Corbyn’s socialism for the Tories and Johnson’s nationalism.

In the depressed provinces of institutionalized precariousness, workers embraced an old Etonian mouthing about unleashed British potential. Not a million miles from blue-collar heartland Democrats migrating to Trump the millionaire and America First demagogy.

That’s not the only parallel with American politics less than 11 months from the election. Johnson concentrated all the Brexit votes. By contrast, the pro-Remain vote was split between Corbyn’s internally divided Labour Party, the hapless Liberal Democrats, and the Scottish National Party. For anybody contemplating the divisions of the Democratic Party as compared with the Trump movement’s fanatical singleness of purpose, now reinforced by the impeachment proceedings, this can only be worrying.

June 22, 2016

The clear rejection of Labour’s big-government socialism also looks ominous for Democrats who believe the party can lurch left and win. The British working class did not buy nationalized railways, electricity distribution and water utilities when they could stick it to some faceless bureaucrat in Brussels and — in that phrase as immortal as it is meaningless — take back their country.

It’s a whole new world. To win, liberals have to touch people’s emotions rather than give earnest lessons. They have to cease being arid. They have to refresh and connect. It’s not easy. (Continued: NYTimes) 

 

Thursday December 12, 2019

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Thursday December 12, 2019

Two Canadians held for a year by China remain ‘resilient’

Michael Kovrig, a former diplomat, and Michael Spavor, a businessman, were both detained on 10 December 2018.

August 23, 2019

China has accused the pair of espionage.

The move by Beijing is widely viewed as “hostage diplomacy” – a tactic to put the pressure on Canada to release Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou.

Beijing denies the men’s cases are related to Ms Meng’s arrest in Canada last year, but supporters say the two are being used as pawns in a larger political dispute.

December 12, 2018

The Canadian government says neither man has had access to a lawyer and have been denied contact with their families and loved ones.

“Our heart goes out to the two Canadians detained in China unjustly,” said Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Monday.

“It’s difficult to even describe this cloud, or the weight that hangs over an organisation when your colleague, your friend has been in a Chinese prison for a year,” Brittany Brown, with the International Crisis Group, Mr Kovrig’s employer, told the BBC.

March 1, 2019

“Not a day goes by that someone in Crisis Group is doing something, engaging with someone, talking with someone, pushing certain points behind the scenes to try and support the Canadian [government] efforts,” she said.

Current and past presidents from the NGO published an open letter last week calling his detention “unjust and inhumane”.

Guy Saint-Jacques, a former Canadian ambassador to Beijing, said that during a recent consular visit, Mr Kovrig asked officials: “When are you going to get me out of this mess?”

“You need to have some hope,” says Mr Saint-Jacques, who once worked with the ex-diplomat. (BBC) 

 

Wednesday December 11, 2019

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Wednesday December 11, 2019

NAFTA, Impeachment: A Donald Trump doubleheader

“I want you to do us a favour,” said Donald Trump, and Nancy Pelosi complied on Tuesday, finally releasing the parking brake from a revised North American Free Trade Agreement and giving the president a glut of gloat-able, quotable material to use on the re-election trail about what an Artful Dealer he is.

July 27, 2018

Announcement of the replacement for what Trump often has called “the worst trade deal in the history of the world” came on the same morning of the same day that the same Madame Speaker – using the word “solemn” twice in her first sentence – announced the two specific, alleged “high crimes” for which the president will be tried and quickly acquitted by his cowed Republican allies in the U.S. Senate next month.

During any other presidency, such a contradiction would be considered dizzily discombobulating, but this is Trump. Adding to the vertigo, the president capped this bestest awfulest day by gaggling in the Oval Office with Sergei Victorovich Lavrov, the amiable foreign minister of Russia, which got America into this mess in the first place.

November 19, 2019

Known to the White House as the “US-Mexico-Canada Agreement” and the most significant legislative achievement of Trump’s presidency since his trillion-dollar tax cuts of Christmas, 2017, the tri-national treaty will impact the continent’s factories and farms long after Trump has passed from the scene, be it by a hostile Senate vote or defeat at the totally-rigged ballot boxes. Most of its last-second amendments relate to the enforcement of labour standards in Mexican factories.

“It could be perishable,” Pelosi told reporters at the Capitol Tuesday morning, explaining why she chose to move USMCA at the same hour that she has been labelling the president “a clear and present danger” to the survival of the republic.

November 16, 2019

That it was the “deranged Democrats” who actually forged the final rewrite of the new-NAFTA, colluding with union groups to get the Mexican government to agree to a quid pro quo of freer trade in exchange for higher wages and tighter environmental and enforcement causes, is unlikely to be a feature of Trump’s stump speech between now and November. The only clause that he is likely to invoke is himself as Santa, once again squeezing his bulk down the national chimney with jobs, jobs, jobs.

Meanwhile, the president blithely romped along the rim of constitutional death Tuesday, tweeting that his life-long nemesis, House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jerrold Nadler “just said that I ‘pressured Ukraine to interfere in our 2020 Election.’ Ridiculous, and he knows that is not true. Both the President & Foreign Minister of Ukraine said, many times, that there ‘WAS NO PRESSURE.’ Nadler and the Dems know this, but refuse to acknowledge!” 

Trump then flew to swing-state Pennsylvania for a rally with the deplored. (MacLean’s) 

Tuesday November 19, 2019

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Tuesday November 19, 2019

Pelosi hints that a USMCA deal might be near. It’s a wise move for Democrats

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) suggested both that President Trump may be impeachable due to “bribery” and gave her strongest signal yet that the House Democratic leadership is close to a deal with the White House that would enable the passage of Mr. Trump’s update to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). In fact, she said those two seemingly contradictory things within the same news conference. Politics is indeed a strange and wondrous business.

June 22, 2019

Thank goodness. Governability can no longer be taken for granted in Washington, much less actual legislation. The impeachment of Mr. Trump along what are so far highly partisan lines threatened to deepen the dysfunctionality, despite promises from Ms. Pelosi and other Democratic leaders that the House could “walk and chew gum at the same time.” Ms. Pelosi’s optimistic words regarding the NAFTA revision, which Mr. Trump calls the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), were clearly carefully chosen and confirm that she was serious about her pledge to continue attending to the people’s business while the hearings proceed. This is a tribute also to the several dozen moderate members of her caucus, many first-termers elected from swing districts, who recognize that it is in their interest — as well as the country’s — to preserve stability in the hemispheric economy.

December 4, 2018

Stability is the operative word. Though highly unpopular in many quarters, especially the (often Democratic-leaning) industrial heartland — where it was blamed for loss of jobs to lower-wage Mexico — NAFTA, for better or worse, legally defines the multitrillion-dollar economic relationship among the United States and its two neighbors. To blow it up and revert to the higher-tariff status quo ante, as Mr. Trump threatened to do both in his 2016 campaign and as president, would have been disastrous.

On the other hand, having gone into effect in 1994, NAFTA was due for modernization, particularly to take account of new developments in e-commerce. Therefore, when Mr. Trump agreed to engage with Mexico and Canada in a renegotiation of the deal, it was wise for Democrats not to dismiss the effort out of hand, even if it might mean ultimately having to share credit with a Republican president for an initiative they had long promised to mount themselves.

October 2, 2018

On the merits, Mr. Trump’s deal is a tweak to NAFTA, disproving his hyperbole about how bad the old agreement was and how good his new one will be. It does indeed improve e-commerce rules and crack Canadian dairy protectionism. For the most part, though, the USMCA deal is about managed trade, not free trade. Its key provisions would set minimum autoworker wages in Mexico and guarantee higher North American content for cars and trucks made in the three signatory countries, so as to protect U.S. Jobs.

The realistic alternative, though, is a rupture with Mexico and Canada, which is why Ms. Pelosi and the moderates in her caucus are right to work with Mr. Trump, and why we hope they will see the USMCA through to House passage, send it to the GOP Senate for likely approval — and then move on to other business, impeachment included. (Washington Post)  

 

Friday November 8, 2019

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Friday November 8, 2019

Western Order Reels on Berlin Wall Anniversary

June 19, 2018

The stage is set at the Brandenburg Gate, the dignitaries are assembling — but 30 years on, is there much cause to celebrate the fall of the Berlin Wall?

The iconic moment of 1989 crowned a year of revolution that toppled communist regimes across the Soviet bloc, marking the end of the Cold War and the start of a hopeful new era.

The global divisions caused by the 1991 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq stopped that in its tracks. Optimism quickly turned to cynicism, economic boom to bust, and electorates began to look for new answers.

June 9, 2018

Today, the western liberal order that prevailed in 1989 is crumbling. Vladimir Putin’s Russia is resurgent, communist China is the world’s second-biggest economy, and the U.S. under Donald Trump openly scorns multilateralism, belittles NATO and calls the European Union a foe.

But even as the west looks spent, it’s too early to administer the last rites.

The global climate emergency upends politics as we know it and represents a chance for the west to lead, even if Greta Thunberg complains it’s not enough. Europe is a green energy powerhouse. Environmental concerns top the EU’s agenda. Germany’s Green party is vying for first place in opinion polls.

A Green chancellor of Europe’s dominant country: Few could have imagined that in 1989. (Financial Post)

In 1989, a suggestion was drawn in my comic strip Alas & Alack that Donald Trump would buy the Berlin Wall. Interesting prophesy on how history would eventually play out with a future U.S. President and his penchant for walls and keeping people divided.