diplomacy

Thursday January 10, 2019

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Thursday January 10, 2019

It’s time to admit that travelling to China isn’t safe

If there is room to criticize the Trudeau government around its handling of Canadians being detained in China, it’s on the question of travel safety.

December 12, 2018

For reasons not entirely clear, Canada has not yet updated its travel advisory regarding travel to and in the country that is now holding at least two Canadian citizens in response to Canada’s arrest of Chinese telecom executive Meng Wanzhou last month.

That arrest took place at the request of the United States government, which has a treaty allowing extradition of people charged with breaking American laws. The U.S. government believes Wanzhou skirted sanctions against Iran in violation of the law. Based on the treaty, and the rule of law, Canada did what it had to do even though the arrest has badly strained relations.

After China illegally detained Canadian citizens, questions about travel safety naturally became more urgent. Earlier this month the U.S. advised citizens to “exercise increased caution” in China, due in part to its arbitrary detention of foreign citizens. As of Jan. 9, Canada was still recommending a high degree of caution, but only due to “isolated acts of violence, including bombings and protests.” No word about the additional threat of detention.

Former foreign affairs minister John Manley says he would not travel to China right now, and is advising business executives to do the same.

June 17, 2017

“I would not, save and except for having a diplomatic passport, go to China at this point in time. I think there’s just too much uncertainty,” Manley told CTV News.

Why hasn’t the federal government updated its travel information to reflect the obvious? China has never been entirely safe for travellers, and it is considerably less so today, based on the state’s actions. It’s understandable that Ottawa doesn’t want to further escalate tensions. But by not broadcasting up-to-date travel safety information it appears out of touch with obvious reality. And it sends the message, to some, that what China has done is not important enough to justify official, public condemnation and warning. It is, and we shouldn’t be afraid to say so, political considerations aside.

Other criticisms directed at the Trudeau government, including that he should be personally reaching out to Chinese leadership on the detainee matter, are largely partisan hot air. Opposition Conservative critics want to make it seem as if Trudeau is dragging his feet, but the evidence doesn’t support that. The government, and prime minister, have not been inactive. They have been working diplomatic channels. They have tried to ensure the detainees can access consular services. They have reached out to Canada’s allies abroad for public support and, for the most part, have been successful. (Japan is a notable exception, which is concerning.)

August 30, 2016

And Trudeau contacted U.S. President Donald Trump and secured his public and diplomatic support. Whatever we may think of the president, his country’s support is essential in matters like this.

There may be a time for Trudeau to get involved, but this isn’t it, and in fact that could further escalate the situation. He is wise to trust his administration and keep his powder dry, even if doing so draws self-serving partisan sniping. Most will see that for what it is. (Source: Hamilton Spectator Editorial) 

 

Wednesday December 12, 2018

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Wednesday December 12, 2018

Trump’s trade war bluster over China is rattling the world

January 26, 2017

The sharp rise of the Dow Jones industrial average since Donald Trump’s election as president in November 2016 is something he and his supporters often cite to show how he has helped the economy — and how, despite his divisive style, Trump’s tax cuts and regulation reductions have been good for America. But the president’s bluster about trade wars — “I am a Tariff Man” — and the important U.S.-China relationship has so far fuelled only chaos. Consider this week. The Dow dropped 799 points Tuesday then had a wilder day on Thursday, closing down 79 points after falling as much as 784 points.

There’s been global fallout since Saturday, when Trump asserted that Chinese President Xi Jinping had caved in his trade war with the U.S. Trump said he’d cut an “incredible” deal in which China would drop a 40 per cent import duty on American cars in return for the U.S. dropping a planned increase in tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese exports.

November 30, 2018

Initially, markets around the planet were thrilled by the news — a trade war between Earth’s two biggest economies creates headaches for nearly everyone. But as it became clear that Xi had only agreed to a 90-day truce on trade issues — not remotely what Trump claimed — investors panicked. The Dow has fallen by 2,000 points from its 2018 high, wiping out nearly all of its gains for the year. Adding to investors’ worries: the news that Meng Wanzhou, chief financial officer of the giant Chinese tech firm Huawei, had been arrested by Canadian authorities at the U.S. Justice Department’s behest, reportedly because of Huawei’s breaking sanctions by doing business with Iran.

December 5, 2017

Given that she is the daughter of Huawei’s founder, Ren Zhengfei, who is revered in China for creating a tech behemoth that is a legitimate rival to U.S. firms, Beijing’s sharp reaction to her arrest was no surprise. But the arrest only underscored the valid reasons that Washington has for being upset with China’s trade practices. China tramples on laws and agreements it doesn’t like, not just by trading with international sponsors of terrorism and subsidizing exports but by aggressively stealing intellectual property and business secrets from U.S. tech firms. Trump has a case when he says his predecessors let Beijing get away with awful behaviour.

But it’s his problem now. He has stated that “trade wars are great and easy to win.” It’s easy to declare nonexistent wins. It’s far more difficult to stabilize the strategically vital relationship between Washington and Beijing with the care and thoughtfulness it demands — and the world needs. (Source: San Diego Union-Tribune) 

 

Friday November 30, 2018

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Friday November 30, 2018

USMCA signing could be overshadowed by larger divisions between nations at G20

Officials don’t know yet who will sign the pact. And they haven’t said exactly when, or where, it’s going to happen.

October 2, 2018

But when the G20 summit in Buenos Aires is over, the leaders of Canada, the United States and Mexico are supposed to be coming home with a newly signed trade agreement.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Wednesday his government was “still in discussions” with Washington about the timing and circumstances of the official United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement signing event. At any rate, it may turn out to be a hold-your-nose moment for the Trudeau government, which had hoped to see U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum lifted before signing day.

August 18, 2018

The chances that the tariffs will even be discussed at the summit, let alone lifted, are so slim that a source tells CBC News that Canada’s ambassador to the U.S. isn’t even going to Argentina.

David MacNaughton has been a key leader for the Canadian trade negotiating team, but he will not be present for the anticipated signing ceremony, or for any sideline talks with the Americans in Buenos Aires.

While the USMCA signing will be big news in Canada when it happens, it’s likely to be overshadowed by the larger global divisions on display at the G20.

June 9, 2018

The official agenda will see leaders discussing different approaches to sustainable and fair growth for the global economy. But these conversations come at a time when confidence in multilateral institutions is declining.

The Americans have been at the centre of two summits that ended in diplomatic disaster in this year alone.

Most recently, the APEC summit in Papua New Guinea ended without a communique, as trade frustrations between the U.S. and China flared.

In June, the G7 summit in Charlevoix, Quebec ended with President Trump pulling his support for the communique and lashing out at Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, calling him “weak.” (Source: CBC) 

 

Friday November 16, 2018

November 16, 2018

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Friday November 16, 2018

The Brutal Reality Of Brexit

June 25, 2016

Theresa May’s chickens are coming home to roost. The deal she agreed with Brussels is unravelling fast, and her premiership along with it. So far, seven of her ministers have resigned. Letters calling for her replacement are pouring in to the powerful chairman of the Conservative Party’s 1922 Committee: once he receives 48 letters, there could be a vote of confidence in her leadership, and perhaps a leadership challenge. Other Tories are calling for a second referendum. Meanwhile, the Labour party is slavering at the possibility of an early General Election. The political crisis that has been simmering since 2016 has erupted with a vengeance.

The political fallout from Mrs. May’s latest attempt to square the Brexit circle is understandable. Her Brexit deal is horrible. It would lock the UK into a “frozen Brexit”, neither in the EU nor completely out of it.  The U.K. would be forced to accept EU decisions over which it would have no say, and continuing to contribute to the EU budget despite no longer being a member. It would also be unable to enact its own trade deals with the rest of the world until the freeze ended. And it would be unable to end the freeze unilaterally.

June 22, 2016

The idea is that this “frozen Brexit” would initially be only for a transitional period ending in December 2020, when it would be superseded by a free trade agreement. But the proposal allows this date to be extended, if necessary for decades, if no free trade agreement is negotiated. And if the transition ends without a free trade agreement, then the entire U.K. would remain in a customs union with the EU indefinitely, but Northern Ireland would have a closer relationship with the EU than the rest of the U.K.

For Brexiters and Remainers alike, this is the worst of all possible solutions. But horrible though it is, this deal satisfies the conditions set by Mrs. May in her Lancaster House speech. It also satisfies the EU’s conditions. No other proposal achieves this. It is, therefore, the best deal available. The U.K. Government has struck a deal that allows Britain to have its cake and eat it – but the cake tastes so disgusting that no-one wants to eat it. (Source: Forbes) 

 

Monday November 12, 2018

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Monday November 12, 2018

Smug Canada probably wouldn’t let in a caravan of migrants either

September 16, 2017

Schadenfreude is of course the German word for taking pleasure in the discomfort of others. There should be a specific Canadian variant to indicate our enjoyment of Americans’ discomfort, which is and always has been a major source of satisfaction for many of our media elites. Maybe schadenfreud-eh?

The latest example is our media’s tut-tutting over the so-called caravan of 7,000 people making its way to the United States from poor, benighted Honduras (which caravan members might themselves categorize as a “s**t-hole country,” given its current lamentable state). I’m not aware of any Canadian journalists yet embedded in the caravan, although surely it won’t be long now given all the publicity it’s been getting in presidential tweets. U.S. President Donald Trump’s Twitter account has 55.3 million followers. Judging by the full-court news coverage he gets up here, at least five per cent must be CBC producers. (Free advice: To really #Resist, get off Twitter.)

Controversy over whether the 7,000 include gang members or “Middle Easterners” has so far obscured two crucial and true, not fake facts. The first is that it is a great tribute to the U.S. that the land of Trump — which is said to be boiling over in micro-aggression, rape culture, transphobia, systemic racism, toxic partisanship, you name it — is the declared destination of the 7,000, not neighbouring Nicaragua, El Salvador, or Guatemala. Not even Mexico, which they’re now trekking across to get to the U.S. Maybe America no longer seems the shining city on a hill it once was. But it’s a shining something north of the Rio Grande and the light apparently can be seen even from the Honduran jungle and through the determined anti-American media jamming.

July 3, 2007

The second clear fact, despite our media’s smug twitting at the president’s tweeting, is that if the 7,000 changed their minds about the U.S. and said they preferred to come to Canada instead, we almost certainly wouldn’t take them either. Without a doubt though, we’d be much nicer and more polite than the president in delivering exactly the same refusal.

None of this is to diminish the tragic situation most of the caravaners find themselves in. There may not be many classic refugees among them, in the sense of being victims of state oppression, but economic and social conditions have so deteriorated in many parts of Central America that few of us would willingly live there. Pity is the right reaction toward anyone forced to live in those conditions, even if that means most of the 7,000 would-be escapees are economic migrants. (Continued: Financial Post)