Trade

Friday November 30, 2018

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Friday November 30, 2018

USMCA signing could be overshadowed by larger divisions between nations at G20

Officials don’t know yet who will sign the pact. And they haven’t said exactly when, or where, it’s going to happen.

October 2, 2018

But when the G20 summit in Buenos Aires is over, the leaders of Canada, the United States and Mexico are supposed to be coming home with a newly signed trade agreement.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Wednesday his government was “still in discussions” with Washington about the timing and circumstances of the official United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement signing event. At any rate, it may turn out to be a hold-your-nose moment for the Trudeau government, which had hoped to see U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum lifted before signing day.

August 18, 2018

The chances that the tariffs will even be discussed at the summit, let alone lifted, are so slim that a source tells CBC News that Canada’s ambassador to the U.S. isn’t even going to Argentina.

David MacNaughton has been a key leader for the Canadian trade negotiating team, but he will not be present for the anticipated signing ceremony, or for any sideline talks with the Americans in Buenos Aires.

While the USMCA signing will be big news in Canada when it happens, it’s likely to be overshadowed by the larger global divisions on display at the G20.

June 9, 2018

The official agenda will see leaders discussing different approaches to sustainable and fair growth for the global economy. But these conversations come at a time when confidence in multilateral institutions is declining.

The Americans have been at the centre of two summits that ended in diplomatic disaster in this year alone.

Most recently, the APEC summit in Papua New Guinea ended without a communique, as trade frustrations between the U.S. and China flared.

In June, the G7 summit in Charlevoix, Quebec ended with President Trump pulling his support for the communique and lashing out at Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, calling him “weak.” (Source: CBC) 

 

Friday November 16, 2018

November 16, 2018

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Friday November 16, 2018

The Brutal Reality Of Brexit

June 25, 2016

Theresa May’s chickens are coming home to roost. The deal she agreed with Brussels is unravelling fast, and her premiership along with it. So far, seven of her ministers have resigned. Letters calling for her replacement are pouring in to the powerful chairman of the Conservative Party’s 1922 Committee: once he receives 48 letters, there could be a vote of confidence in her leadership, and perhaps a leadership challenge. Other Tories are calling for a second referendum. Meanwhile, the Labour party is slavering at the possibility of an early General Election. The political crisis that has been simmering since 2016 has erupted with a vengeance.

The political fallout from Mrs. May’s latest attempt to square the Brexit circle is understandable. Her Brexit deal is horrible. It would lock the UK into a “frozen Brexit”, neither in the EU nor completely out of it.  The U.K. would be forced to accept EU decisions over which it would have no say, and continuing to contribute to the EU budget despite no longer being a member. It would also be unable to enact its own trade deals with the rest of the world until the freeze ended. And it would be unable to end the freeze unilaterally.

June 22, 2016

The idea is that this “frozen Brexit” would initially be only for a transitional period ending in December 2020, when it would be superseded by a free trade agreement. But the proposal allows this date to be extended, if necessary for decades, if no free trade agreement is negotiated. And if the transition ends without a free trade agreement, then the entire U.K. would remain in a customs union with the EU indefinitely, but Northern Ireland would have a closer relationship with the EU than the rest of the U.K.

For Brexiters and Remainers alike, this is the worst of all possible solutions. But horrible though it is, this deal satisfies the conditions set by Mrs. May in her Lancaster House speech. It also satisfies the EU’s conditions. No other proposal achieves this. It is, therefore, the best deal available. The U.K. Government has struck a deal that allows Britain to have its cake and eat it – but the cake tastes so disgusting that no-one wants to eat it. (Source: Forbes) 

 

Tuesday October 2, 2018

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Tuesday October 2, 2018

President Trump creates crises, then claims credit for solving them

September 5, 2018

President Trump’s specialty is to create crises and then claim credit for solving them. Last year, for example, he ratcheted up the rhetoric against Kim Jong Un — a.k.a. “Little Rocket Man” — threatening to rain “fire and fury” on North Korea. Trump now claims he and Kim “fell in love” after Kim sent him “beautiful letters,” and that, were it not for this bromance, “you’d be in a war” and “millions of people would have been killed.” In reality, no one thought a second Korean War was likely before Trump took office. That only became a serious risk because of his unhinged rhetoric.

Trump has applied this same template to the North

August 28, 2018

American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which he spent years lambasting as “the worst trade deal ever approved.” According to Bob Woodward’s book “Fear: Trump in the White House,” Trump was on the verge of pulling out of NAFTA in April 2017, and had to be talked back from the brink by senior aides. He grudgingly remained in the deal while launching high-pressure negotiations to rework it.

Lo and behold, just ahead of a U.S.-imposed deadline on Sunday night, the United States, Mexico and Canada agreed on a revamped NAFTA. Trump triumphantly proclaimed on Twitter that this was a “wonderful new Trade Deal,” “historic,” and “a great deal for all three countries.” “NAFTA is dead,” said White House trade adviser Peter Navarro. Long live the new United States-Canada-Mexico Agreement (USMCA).

June 13, 2018

In fact, the biggest change is the name of the trade deal, and it is not an improvement. Just try saying “USMCA.” It does not roll off the tongue the way “NAFTA” did. As for the substance, my Council on Foreign Relations colleague Benn Steil rightly describes the new agreement as “little more than margin edits.”

Trump’s biggest victory was in opening up slightly more of the Canadian dairy market for U.S. exports. This has long been an obsession for him. He complained in June: “Canada charges the U.S. a 270% tariff on Dairy Products! They didn’t tell you that, did they? Not fair to our farmers.” Trump was right about the Canadian tariffs. What he didn’t mention is that the United States still ran a $474 million dairy surplus last year, with U.S. farmers selling five times more dairy goods to Canada than U.S. consumers bought from Canada. In any case, milk products represent just 0.06 percent of U.S.-Canada trade, 99 percent of which was already tariff-free. (Source: Washington Post) 

 

Thursday September 6, 2018

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Thursday September 6, 2018

NAFTA talks resume as questions grow about Trump’s ability to deliver

Canada returns to the NAFTA table in Washington Wednesday after a four-day break in negotiations that appeared to be pretty stressful … for the American side.

August 28, 2018

The Trump administration’s failure to secure a deal before last Friday wasn’t well-received by key voices in Congress, where NAFTA’s fate ultimately will be decided.

By the end of the weekend, the White House seemed to have fallen out with an ally it had hoped would back a revised NAFTA: a union representing millions of working-class Americans, now souring on President Donald Trump’s ability to deliver.

Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland told reporters Wednesday that officials continued their work over the weekend after negotiations broke off Friday. 

“We are looking forward to constructive conversations today,” she said before heading to the offices of U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer.

Fresh signs of perceived weakness in Washington may bolster Canada’s determination to reject a bad deal, as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has vowed publicly to do. Trudeau’s team spent the weekend talking to stakeholders and advisers to prepare for this week.

The tone Freeland set early in her public statements during the negotiations — a no-drama approach of working “intensely” and “constructively” and praising the “goodwill” of counterparts — seems to be holding firm.

Work continues to finalize the text before the next Congressional deadline at the end of the month. If all three parties remain serious about a signing ceremony before Mexico’s government changes hands Dec.1, the negotiated text is due by Sept. 30. (Source: CBC) 

 

Thursday August 30, 2018

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Thursday August 30, 2018

U.S. is intent on ending supply management for Canadian dairy: Trudeau

April 20, 2017

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says it is obvious the Trump administration is intent on dismantling Canada’s supply management system.

But he says Canada won’t buckle on the issue at the NAFTA talks.

The vexing question of greater U.S. access to the Canada’s protected dairy sector is now pivotal as the NAFTA negotiations in Washington draw closer to President Donald Trump’s Friday deadline for a three-country deal.

A concession on dairy — which is explosive politically in Canada — is one of the few cards the Trudeau government has left to play at the bargaining table after the U.S. and Mexico reached their own side deal on Monday.

Experts say Trump has not specifically set his sights on dismantling supply management, and is more angry with a new classification of milk products that Canada introduced two years ago that he says has undercut U.S. exports and hurt his country’s farmers.

Trump says he’s optimistic a deal can be worked out with Canada by the end of week. (Source: Financial Post)