Trade

Tuesday July 17, 2017

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Tuesday July 17, 2017

Trump administration poised to reveal goals for NAFTA talks

United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer is expected to release today his negotiating objectives ahead of talks to revise the North American Free Trade Agreement next month.

April 20, 2017

The goals for the renegotiation, as well as the Trump administration’s rationale for how these objectives will lead to an agreement beneficial to the U.S., must be published on the USTR website, as required by Congress in accordance with the trade promotion authority granted to the White House for renegotiating a standing agreement like this.

Formal talks to revise NAFTA are expected to start next month. Such objectives must be published 30 days in advance.

The Canadian government is not required to publish its negotiating objectives ahead of the formal talks, expected to start on or shortly after Aug. 17. The location for these talks has not been finalized yet.

While Canada has been consulting formally and informally — an official consultation period expires Tuesday — politicians, officials and negotiators have been talking to affected industries for weeks to prepare Canada’s bargaining positions.

June 2, 2017

They’re expected to continue to do so throughout the process, although Parliament does not require the kind of transparency Congress does.

“The other NAFTA parties — Canada and Mexico … their position has been: the U.S. wanted to re-open this and modernize it. We’re just coming along,” International trade lawyer Dan Ujczo told CBC News last week. “So I think in some ways the U.S. is going to set the agenda.”

“If it comes out really short and sweet with a very narrow set of lists, that’s indicating that they want to get this done as quick as possible,” he said. But if it isn’t a deep dive, Ujczo expects Congress to demand more specifics. (Source: CBC News) 

 

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Wednesday May 24, 2017

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Wednesday May 24, 2017

Justin Trudeau heads to Europe for NATO and G7 summits, where Trump’s ‘fireworks’ remain an expectation

May 25, 2016

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau heads to Europe this week for the NATO and G7 summits, where global leaders are trying to figure out exactly how the world works now that U.S. President Donald Trump is at the table.

The future of military alliances, the fight against climate change and even free trade all hang in the balance as the new man in the White House sits down and lets them all know his plans — or maybe not.

“Predicting what this president does would be virtually impossible,” said David Perry, a senior analyst with the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, delivering a common answer to the question of what to expect this week.

March 25, 2014

“Fireworks would be the baseline expectation of some sort.”

On Thursday, Trump, in the midst of his first foreign trip as U.S. president, will sit down with Trudeau and other leaders at the NATO summit at the group’s new headquarters in Brussels.

On Friday and Saturday, Trudeau and Trump will be in Taormina, a resort town in Sicily, for the G7 Summit.

John Kirton, director of the G8 Research Group at the Munk School of Global Affairs at the University of Toronto, said this smaller forum with lots of opportunities for face-to-face talks is made for someone like Trump, who professes his passion for making deals.

July 27, 2006

Kirton said he expects the talks to focus on trying to convince Trump not to go through with his pledge to back out of the UN Paris Agreement on climate change, the role of China in the world and international trade.

But Kirton said the tenor of these talks might depend on how things go in Brussels. If things don’t go well at the NATO summit, the G7 meeting will have to be rapidly reconfigured into a repair job, he said. (Source: Toronto Star)

Regina Leader-Post, May 25, 2017

Wednesday April 26, 2017

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Wednesday April 26, 2017

Canada pursues possible trade deal with China as softwood lumber dispute with U.S. heats up

December 7, 2005

Exploratory free trade talks are underway this week as Canadian and Chinese officials visit one another’s countries to discuss what a potential agreement might look like.

Chinese officials are gathering at the offices at Global Affairs Canada, while two federal ministers, International Trade Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne and Finance Minister Bill Morneau, are in China.

In Washington on Friday, Morneau said his China trip will focus on furthering relationships with his Chinese counterparts and key industry players, while Champagne works to promote the use of Canadian lumber in home construction.

Minister of Natural Resources Jim Carr will travel to China in June with forestry leaders to further look for new markets.

This broad diplomatic push comes as the U.S. looks set to impose new duties on Canadian softwood.

September 2, 2016

Joel Neuheimer, the senior director of International Trade for the Forest Products Association of Canada, said the last time the softwood industry faced duties from the U.S. — more than a decade ago — the push to find new markets in China paid off.

“If you look back to 2006 versus 2016, from a percentage point of view, we’ve really tripled our exports in forest products to the Chinese marketplace, going from five per cent of our exports to 15 per cent of our exports,” Neuheimer told CBC News.

That initial effort focused primarily on single-family home construction, he said, but looking to the future the effort will need to be expanded to selling lumber for the construction of larger buildings such as schools, libraries and apartment buildings.

“We’re looking at doing even more going forward, again taking into consideration what we’re bracing ourselves for here going forward with the United States and the harmful duties they’re about to impose on our wood products,” Neuheimer said. (Source: CBC News)

The Western Star, Corner Brook, Nfld., April 28, 2017

Thursday January 26, 2017

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Thursday January 26, 2017

Why President Trump might not be the worst for Canada

Yes, the Donald Trump presidency is going to be bad. Yes, it might be a disaster. But it won’t necessarily be a disaster for Canada.

Consider Canada-U.S. trade. President Trump talks like he believes global trade is a form of war, and every day he threatens to start one. Canada is an exceptionally trade-dependent economy, and almost all of our trade is with the United States. Many of our industries have integrated, cross-border production chains. If President Trump wages trade war against any and all imports, Canada is going to suffer catastrophic collateral damage.

But much more likely, as Blackstone CEO and Trump economic adviser Stephen Schwarzman told Canadian government officials on Monday, is that the President will go after countries running big trade surpluses. That means China. It also means Mexico, which Mr. Trump consistently portrays as a stealer of jobs and exporter of illegal aliens. As a result, NAFTA is almost certainly doomed. 

But if NAFTA disappears or is sent into the limbo of renegotiation, the earlier Canada-U.S. free-trade agreement still stands, and still protects much (though not all) of Canada’s trade access. Given that Canada-U.S. trade is relatively balanced – Canada runs a small trade surplus with the U.S. when oil prices are high, and a deficit when they’re low – it’s unlikely that the Trump administration is going to want to make Canada a priority target.

Visibly steamrolling the Mexican economy will be popular with many voters from both parties. Ditto a trade fight with China. But attacking Canada? There’s no economic logic to it. Nor would there be much domestic political upside in starting a trade war with the place Americans consistently call their most admired foreign country.

Bottom line: The end of NAFTA is not a good thing. However, if the Trump administration stops there, it would mean a big hit for Mexico, but a relatively small hit for the Canadian economy. (Source: Globe & Mail) 

 

Thursday November 17, 2016

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator Ð Thursday November 17, 2016 Trudeau brings message of open doors to Cuba, South America Justin TrudeauÕs arrival Tuesday in Cuba Ð the first official visit by a Canadian prime minister in almost two decades Ð is the first step in the Liberal governmentÕs week-long bid to boost Canadian trade, investment and engagement in the region. The visit is a necessary and symbolic stop en route to Argentina and Peru because Cuba is a political and diplomatic gateway to the Americas, said Allan Culham, CanadaÕs former ambassador to the Organization of American States. ÒA visit to Cuba is a rite of passage in the Americas,Ó Culham said. ÒYou canÕt have any credibility in the Americas without having gone to Cuba.Ó The Prime MinisterÕs Office has publicly said the visit would focus on trade and investment, but the context of those talks has changed in the last week with U.S. president-elect Donald TrumpÕs tough stances on free trade. Thanks to places like Argentina, where liberal democracy is being embraced, Canadians may be able to play a more influential role in South America, said Culham Ð particularly at a time when the U.S. is turning dramatically inwards. ÒThis is a real opportunity for us on the hemispheric stage to make a difference both politically and practically.Ó CanadaÕs reputation in South America has taken a hit in the last decade from concerns about the environmental and social effects of Canadian mining operations, said John Kirk, a professor in the department of Spanish and Latin American studies at Dalhousie University in Halifax. ÒWe have done a dismal job,Ó Kirk said. ÒIÕve got students in several places in Latin America that have taken the maple leaf off the backpack precisely because of the role of (former prime minister) Stephen Harper.Ó In Cuba, Trudeau is scheduled to meet Tuesday with president Raul Castro shortly after his arrival in Havana before attending a state dinner. There is

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Thursday November 17, 2016

Trudeau brings message of open doors to Cuba, South America

Justin Trudeau’s arrival Tuesday in Cuba – the first official visit by a Canadian prime minister in almost two decades – is the first step in the Liberal government’s week-long bid to boost Canadian trade, investment and engagement in the region.

Wednesday, March 12, 2014

March 12, 2014

The visit is a necessary and symbolic stop en route to Argentina and Peru because Cuba is a political and diplomatic gateway to the Americas, said Allan Culham, Canada’s former ambassador to the Organization of American States.

“A visit to Cuba is a rite of passage in the Americas,” Culham said. “You can’t have any credibility in the Americas without having gone to Cuba.”

The Prime Minister’s Office has publicly said the visit would focus on trade and investment, but the context of those talks has changed in the last week with U.S. president-elect Donald Trump’s tough stances on free trade.

Thanks to places like Argentina, where liberal democracy is being embraced, Canadians may be able to play a more influential role in South America, said Culham – particularly at a time when the U.S. is turning dramatically inwards.

“This is a real opportunity for us on the hemispheric stage to make a difference both politically and practically.”

January 16, 2007

Canada’s reputation in South America has taken a hit in the last decade from concerns about the environmental and social effects of Canadian mining operations, said John Kirk, a professor in the department of Spanish and Latin American studies at Dalhousie University in Halifax.

“We have done a dismal job,” Kirk said.

“I’ve got students in several places in Latin America that have taken the maple leaf off the backpack precisely because of the role of (former prime minister) Stephen Harper.”

In Cuba, Trudeau is scheduled to meet Tuesday with president Raul Castro shortly after his arrival in Havana before attending a state dinner.

There is no scheduled meeting with Fidel Castro, the former Cuban leader who was an honorary pallbearer at Pierre Trudeau’s funeral in 2000. (Source: MacLean’s)