climate change

Thursday June 17, 2021

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Thursday June 17, 2021

Think bigger, and smaller, than a vaccine lottery

The percentage of Canadians who’ve had their first shot of COVID-19 vaccine has rocketed this country to the top of the global charts. Yet even as Canada pivots to focusing on second doses, one-quarter of Canadian adults and teens have still not taken their first shot.

December 11, 2020

Could a lottery get them to stretch out their arms?

Last month, Ohio decided to try that approach. It’s part populism, part behavioural science. 

On May 12, the governor announced that the vaccinated would be entered into a draw, with a US$1-million prize awarded weekly, for five weeks.

The behavioural science insight behind all of this is that the human brain tends to misjudge probabilities. It’s why lotteries, with their poor odds – Ohio’s grand-prize odds are roughly one in a million – are often referred to as a tax on stupidity. Ohio decided to try to harness that stupidity for a good cause, namely boosting the vaccination rate. Several other states followed its lead, as have Manitoba and Alberta.

So how are things working out?

October 27, 2006

Thanks at least in part to Vax-a-Million, Ohio’s low vaccination rate did rise – but only for a short time.

In the seven days up to and including May 12 – the day the lottery was announced – the state of nearly 12 million people administered fewer than 92,000 first shots, according to our calculations from data on Ohio’s vaccine dashboard. The next week, after the lottery launched, first-shot vaccinations more than doubled.

The following week, however, vaccinations dropped by about a quarter. The next week, they dropped by almost half. The following week, they fell some more; the week after that, they fell sharply again.

And over the five days to June 14, Ohio averaged about half as many first shots as in the five days leading up to the lottery launch.

Ohio, which has now given a first dose to 47 per cent of its population, needed to up its rate by as much as 20 percentage points. Vax-a-Million appears to have delivered a boost of perhaps two percentage points, at most.

April 8, 2008

So far, Alberta’s lotto results are even less promising. Premier Jason Kenney announced the lottery plan 

on Saturday; on Sunday, Alberta recorded its lowest number of first shots since February. Monday’s tally was the second lowest since February. Tuesday was even lower.

There are many reasons why a quarter of eligible Canadians are still not vaccinated. The lack of pandemic prizes is likely the least of it. (Globe & Mail) 

 

Thursday June 10, 2021

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Thursday June 10, 2021

What happened in London should be a pivot point for Canada — and its politicians

In a speech in 2015, while reflecting on Canada’s treatment of minorities, Justin Trudeau said that the inclusive idea of liberty that typifies the best of Canada “requires Canadian political leadership to be sustained.”

Six years later, the killing of four members of a Muslim family in London, Ontario is a moment of reckoning for Canadians — but also for this country’s political leaders.

If it’s necessary for Canadians to reflect on themselves and their country, it’s equally necessary for politicians to consider what they could have done better in the past and what more they could do in the future.

In 2017, there was Motion 103. Tabled by Liberal MP Iqra Khalid, it asked the House of Commons to condemn Islamophobia and endorse a study of how the federal government could better combat racism and discrimination. It did not pass quietly or easily. Eighty-six Conservative MPs — including current party leader Erin O’Toole — voted against it.

August 25, 2020

O’Toole’s first response to the attack in London this week described it as an “Islamophobic act of terror.” He used the word “Islamophobia” in his remarks to the House of Commons the next day.

Maybe that counts as some small measure of progress, too. But even if O’Toole appeared to turn a page this week, should politicians ever be allowed to move on so quietly?

Does he regret his vote on M-103? How does he feel now about what the previous Conservative government — which he served as a cabinet minister — said and did in regards to the niqab? What about that same government’s talk of “barbaric cultural practices?”

February 16, 2017

In the 2015 election — during which Stephen Harper suggested he would consider extending a ban on the niqab to the public service — was hardly the last word on anti-Muslim prejudice in Canada.

Trudeau put himself ahead of other leaders on the issue of the niqab when he delivered that speech in 2015. Unfortunately, it was possible then to think he had taken a political risk in so loudly criticizing the Harper government’s ban. New Democrats ended up blaming their losses in that year’s election in part on the fact that Tom Mulcair eventually was compelled to condemn the policy.

October 3, 2019

If Trudeau is ahead of his federal counterparts now on the matter of Quebec’s Bill 21, which would ban public servants in the province from wearing religious headwear or symbols, he’s not ahead by much.

O’Toole deferred to Quebec when he was asked about the so-called “secularism” law last September — another thing he might be asked about now. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has criticized the bill but has stopped short of saying an government led by him would intervene.

Trudeau has criticized the bill but is still alone among federal leaders in saying that the federal government might someday need to participate in a legal challenge against it.

That wasn’t much — but then Trudeau seemed to move backwards this week. Asked by a reporter whether he thought Bill 21 “fosters hatred and … discrimination,” the prime minister responded, “No.” (Continued: CTV) 

 

Saturday April 24, 2021

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Saturday April 24, 2021

Trudeau pressured to adopt tougher emissions target for Biden climate summit

September 28, 2019

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is under pressure to step up his commitment to cutting greenhouse gas emissions in Canada within the next decade as he heads into a United States-hosted climate summit with global leaders.

The virtual two-day event starting Thursday, which is Earth Day, is where the government says Trudeau plans to unveil new reduction targets for 2030.

The Liberal government has promised to release new targets ahead of the United Nations Climate Change Conference this fall, when Canada plans to discuss progress on the issue.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is under pressure to step up his commitment to cutting greenhouse gas emissions in Canada within the next decade as he heads into a United States-hosted climate summit with global leaders.

April 22, 2020

The virtual two-day event starting Thursday, which is Earth Day, is where the government says Trudeau plans to unveil new reduction targets for 2030.

The Liberal government has promised to release new targets ahead of the United Nations Climate Change Conference this fall, when Canada plans to discuss progress on the issue.

Some organizations say to show it’s serious, Canada needs to set a reductions target of at least 50 per cent below 2005 levels, with at least one saying nothing less than 40 per cent.

Another factor is pressure from allies, like U.S. President Joe Biden, who has prioritized fighting climate change with billions in new spending.

January 26, 2021

Groups have been pushing Biden to adopt a target of slashing emissions by 50 per cent by 2030 below 2005 levels. More than 300 companies signed an open letter supporting that call, such as giants like Apple, Starbucks and McDonalds.

And some suggest Trudeau will at the very least be expected to match.

“There is no way they can go to Washington with 36 per cent and not get laughed out of the room,” said Keith Stewart, a senior energy strategist with Greenpeace Canada, among environmentalists saying it needs to be higher, like 60 per cent.

Among those who believe the floor needs to be 50 per cent is Mary Robinson, chair of the international human rights group The Elders, and former UN High Commissioner for Human Rights.

The former Ireland president believes there’s a perception Canada has accomplished more on fighting climate change than it actually has.

“Canada’s the only G7 country where emissions have increased since the signing of the Paris Agreement.”

A recent report shows in 2019 the country’s annual emissions increased slightly to 730 million tonnes of carbon dioxide and its equivalents, closer to where it was in 2005 than its 2030 promise. (CTV) 

 

Saturday March 27, 2021

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Saturday March 27, 2021

Week in Review: Stuck things

Crews are working to clear a traffic jam at Egypt’s Suez Canal, the world’s busiest trade route, after the massive container ship “Ever Given” ran aground. Global News explains what this could mean for oil prices. 

March 23, 2021

Meanwhile, Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole is sticking with his long-standing view that a federal carbon price is not the way to tackle the growing threat of climate change across the country, following a decision by the Supreme Court of Canada authorizing its constitutionality.

In an interview on CTV News Channel’s Power Play on Thursday, O’Toole said his approach would focus instead on partnering with provinces and bolstering the economy to get emissions down, though he didn’t provide exact details about how doing so would achieve his stated goal.

“The court said what we all know — that climate change is real and it’s important for us to have a serious approach,” he said.

May 14, 2019

“I want to have a plan that Canada can meet its targets. I’ve also said I’d like to see a net-zero approach plan, a made-in-Canada net-zero approach plan over the longer term, which is the 2050 timeline, but to do it without taxing people. As I said the carbon tax impacts our competitiveness and it hurts people in the margins the most. I think it’s backwards to be honest.”

In a 6-3 decision, the top court decided on Thursday that a price on pollution is entirely constitutional and that Ottawa has a right to set minimum pricing standards for greenhouse gas emissions in the provinces.

May 27, 2017

“The undisputed existence of a threat to the future of humanity cannot be ignored,” wrote Chief Justice Richard Wagner.

The case brings a legal end to a years-long battle between Ottawa and many provinces over the carbon price, and prompted Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe to start looking at a homegrown carbon-pricing mechanism and Alberta Premier Jason Kenney to nudge open the door to doing so too.

Saskatchewan, Ontario and Alberta challenged the Liberal government’s 2018 Greenhouse Gas Pollution Pricing Act in court, arguing it was a federal overreach into provincial jurisdiction over everything from taxes and the environment to natural-resource development.

O’Toole said his party would target large emitters of greenhouse gas emissions and respect the individual carbon reducing frameworks already in place in some provinces.

During the party’s policy convention over the weekend, delegates notably voted against a resolution that would have included the line “climate change is real” in the party’s official policy document.

Environment Minister Jonathan Wilkinson said the Supreme Court’s decision on carbon pricing is a “good day for Canada.”

“Read the academic literature, go talk to an economist. They will tell you it’s the most efficient and effective way to reduce emissions and to incentivize innovation,” he told Power Play. (CTV)

“That cargo ship wedged in the Suez Canal may be a disaster for international trade, but it’s been a boon for political cartoonists. And it being an international incident, lots of people get to chip in, like Canadian Graeme Mackay, who likens it to the Conservative Party’s environmental stance”

Tuesday March 23, 2021

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator – Tuesday March 23, 2021

O’Toole’s pitch to get Conservatives to embrace ‘change’ may be off to a shaky start

Erin O’Toole told Conservatives this weekend that their party must change — because if it doesn’t, he said, it won’t be able to win the votes necessary to defeat Justin Trudeau’s Liberals in the next election.

May 2, 2019

And if the Liberals do win, he added, they’ll be able to implement their own changes — changes that O’Toole cast as frightening and potentially ruinous.

But O’Toole didn’t tell Conservatives exactly how they need to change. And then delegates delivered a potentially damaging vote on climate change policy that suggests his party base might not be ready to move very far.

O’Toole is on solid ground when he says the Conservative Party needs to try something different. His own polling numbers make that obvious. But so did the last federal election.

In 2019, Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives ran on an implicit promise to return to the policy agenda of Stephen Harper’s government. Scheer promised to smile more than his predecessor did but stopped short of offering a new approach — particularly on climate change.

June 23, 2020

The Conservatives won 34 per cent of the popular vote in that election. That was two points better than the party’s performance under Harper in 2015, but its national result in 2019 was inflated by the massive Conservative turnout in Alberta and Saskatchewan. In Ontario and Quebec — where 199 of the country’s 338 ridings are located — the Conservatives actually lost ground under Scheer.

A year and a half later, O’Toole’s Conservatives are sitting at 30 per cent nationally. And O’Toole’s personal approval rating might be even more of a problem.

August 25, 2020

According to survey results released by Abacus Data last week, 23 per cent of Canadians are committed to voting Conservative in the next election and another 23 per cent would consider voting Conservative.

But as the Abacus numbers point out, the differences between those two groups are substantial. Compared to those who have decided already to vote for O’Toole’s party, those potential Conservative voters are younger, more diverse, much more concerned about climate change and much less angry about Justin Trudeau.

September 1, 2020

O’Toole said his party must have a “serious” and “comprehensive” plan for climate change. But he doubled down on his criticism of the current federal carbon price and fell back on a framing that casts “the environment” as a discrete issue — as opposed to a broader view that sees climate policy as intertwined with almost all other areas of public policy.

“As important as climate change is, getting our economy back on track is more important,” he said.

In his prepared remarks, he said he wanted to defeat the “lie” that the Conservative Party is a party of “climate change deniers.” On Friday night and then again during a question-and-answer session with party members on Saturday afternoon, O’Toole declared that the “debate” over climate change is over.

But in between those two pronouncements came the news that Conservative delegates had rejected a resolution that would have declared that “climate change is real” and “the Conservative party is willing to act” — while committing the party to targeting high emitters and supporting innovation.

The headlines generated by that vote might be a serious setback to O’Toole’s goal of rebranding his party. Liberals will no doubt be happy to remind him of that vote at every opportunity in the weeks and months ahead. (CBC)

Sketch of being pulled back from the big kids’ pool